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Blues on the eve of the 2016 Draft

June 23, 2016, 3:32 PM ET [217 Comments]
Jason Millen
St Louis Blues Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT


As I have said before and I’ll say it again – before we get into discussing the rumored deals, I want to be clear in that I haven’t talked to anyone in the “know” about these rumors. Having said that, recent experience suggests that when you apply logic to situations you can often get a pretty good read of what might happen. If you don’t believe me go back to April 2015 and note that TJ Oshie was traded, as I surmised, to one of the four teams I mentioned, Anti Raanta was traded out of Chicago, Kevin Shattenkirk wasn’t traded at the deadline, Crawford wasn’t traded last summer, etc. It’s amazing how much logic can provide insight as to what might happen.

So what happens when we apply logic to this off-season and the draft? Logic suggests that Kevin Shattenkirk will be traded, likely before the season starts. Any remaining hope that Shattenkirk fans had of him extending in St. Louis likely vanished when new Florida Panthers’ general manager Tom Rowe made his first free agent signing, giving Keith Yandle a 7 year, $44.5 million contract and giving him a no movement clause for the first six years and a no trade clause. On a side note, this is a terrible contract given out by the Panthers which compares to players like Alex Pietrangelo, Brent Seabrook and Mark Giordano. What Yandle brings is nice but is a level below all of those players. I read on twitter that a contract can’t be judged as bad until after the fact. I believe this is an oversimplification as a club can easily offer more money than the player would have accepted, especially when agents will always ask for the moon just in case they get it. Just ask Bobby Holik, Jay McKee, etc. With Yandle getting that type of deal, expect Shattenkirk to ask for $7.5 million a season at a minimum.

So assuming Shattenkirk is traded, the question becomes where.

Is it Toronto? This destination makes the most sense to me as they have cap room to extend him and are in dire need of a right-handed defenseman. My review suggests that KHL import Nikita Zaitsev may be the only one under contract for next season. Hunick, Rielly, Gardiner and Percy are all left-handed. They also have a plethora of assets that could be used to get Shattenkirk such as the relatively cap friendly, Brouwer/Backes type replacement in James van Riemsdyk, the oft rumored Tyler Bozak, and a good bevy of prospects. Also, they could send someone like Hunwick back to the Blues in the trade.

Is it Edmonton? This destination also makes a lot of sense as the Oilers need defensive help, especially on the right side. Sekera, Nurse, Klefbom, Davidson, and Reinhart are all left-handed. I think the potential deals with Edmonton are tougher to fit. You can’t get their #4 pick given the risk Shattenkirk turns out to be a one year rental. The Blues would love Hall but Shattenkirk isn’t enough to fetch him. Would a Ryan Nugent-Hopkins based deal work? Perhaps but more parts would likely be involved. My crazy thought would depend on what the Blues scouting staff thinks of Yakupov and Reinhart. If they see good upside in them, would there be a deal around a combo of Yakupov, Reinhart and a draft pick? Regardless, if I was the Blues, I might take a flier on Yakupov for their 3rd round pick.

Is it Boston? This destination seems to be a bit of a stretch to me unless the trade literally happens right when the Bruins get on the clock for their 1st round pick tomorrow night. The idea is that there is a player available that the Blues really like and are willing to give up Shattenkirk to get him. Until they know who is available at 14 or at least a few of the players who will be available at 14, I can’t see this deal happening. I bet they also would ask for Eriksson’s rights in the deal. Spooner and Pastrnak are interesting players but, in my opinion, neither is enough to fetch Shattenkirk. Other than Torey Krug (not going to happen), I can’t see the Blues all that interested in any of the Bruins defensemen.

Teams kicking the tires
I’d ask all of you to not shoot the messenger when bloggers, reporters, twitter users, etc. report that teams have had talks about acquiring a player. Just like agents would be foolish not to ask for the moon when talking to general managers, general managers would be foolish to not partake in these conversations when they hear a good player might be on the market. Remember, the Predators acquired Filip Forsberg for Martin Erat and Panthers got Luongo and Jokinen for Parrish and Kvasha.

It’s a great day for hockey.
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