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As you all likely know by now, the Blues signed Alexander Steen to a 4 year, $23 million contract extension that carries an AAV of $5.75 million per year. Steen will be 37 years old at the end of the contract.

Some are pointing to this contract being great for the Blues because he could have likely gotten more in the open market. Some point to him taking a pay cut on his AAV as a reason for it being great. Some may suggest it is a great deal by comparing it to the contract David Backes got from the Bruins. In my humble opinion all of these views miss some very important realities.

Any way you slice Steen’s production over the last few years, it shows a decline in production. Even though he average better zone starts (more offensive zone starts), his goals and points per 60 minutes both declined. His game winning goal totals have declined year to year as has his goal total, shooting percentage, corsi and fenwick. When you compare his stats from last year to the year before his last contract, the stats show a significant decline with last year being anywhere from 52% to 87% of his prior level. See the data here:


If you don’t believe that data, look at the comparative HERO chart:


In reviewing the HERO chart, note that his goal scoring and production are down and that his 1st line scoring probabilities are down almost 20%. His shot generation, suppression and possession metrics have significantly declined with his 1st line possession probabilities decreasing by almost 2/3. The statistics, both regular and advanced, bear out that his production has declined substantially from before his last contract.

I’m not trying to claim the contract is terrible right now, though it might be in a few years. I’m only suggesting I believe that general manager Doug Armstrong overpaid versus Steen’s production value in this contract, something that is dangerous to do in the salary cap era. Look no further than Armstrong having his hands tied last year because the injuries and the cap situation. What I do believe is that it is possible that he felt he couldn’t risk losing Steen after losing Backes and Troy Brouwer this past offseason and he stretched some on the AAV and duration in order to make sure he didn’t lose another productive forward. Time will tell as to how this impacts the Blues cap situation and the relative value of the contract. What I also believe is that it is very difficult to be a general manager in the current NHL and I believe Armstrong is doing what he believes will make the Blues the best club he can assemble.

It’s a great day for hockey.

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