Vegas is official.
An I-15 series will be in the books for the NHL in the very near future between Los Angeles and Las Vegas. However, major questions still remain. The immediate concern with the Kings now, and every other team in the NHL for that matter, is "When" and "How".
The "when" seems obvious, and most of the reports are saying the target would be for the 2017-18 season.
The "How", however, is still up for debate.
While many out there are certain they have the rules in the right area, Bill Daly offered no help, going on record saying:
While it would be nice if the details were all hammered out to us at this point, it seems unlikely that that will happen until the rules are even set for the owners and GMs. Which it sounds like there are still some decisions to be made on that front.
What we have theorized though at this point is that, per rules of previous expansion drafts, teams will be able to protect either eight skaters and one goalie,
or three defenseman, seven forwards, and one goalie. Teams can only lose one player per expansion team as well.
First and second year players are exempt, and players with NMCs will also be exempt from being exposed IF they do not waive them.
These are THEORIZED rules. Nothing concrete. So let's be clear on that. They could change, and might very well change.
But if either of those two protection rules in terms of personnel are indeed true and come into place, that leaves the Kings with some interesting decisions. You lose just one player, but it is all in who you expose and could potentially lose. Let's take a look at some possibilities, even though the Kings roster is still in flux with the status of Milan Lucic.
be that as it may, let's look at what the Kings might face with these two expansion draft options in regards to their team.
Seven F - Three D Option
The goalie protection is obvious, so we won't even go into detail there. Jonathan Quick.
While the advantage of this set up is being able to protect two extra players, the downside is exposing more defensemen. For the Kings, the forward group would be fairly straight forward.
Anze Kopitar is an automatic due to his no trade clause (The only Kings player with one), and Michael Mersch, Nic Dowd, and Kevin Gravel would all be exempt due to being first or second year players by the 2017-18 offseason.
So start listing your forwards.
Kopitar, Carter, Toffoli, Pearson, Shore, Clifford, and Milan Lucic IF he re-signs. If Lucic does not re-sign you could almost say Trevor Lewis if HE re-signs. That last spot is certainly up for debate. Maybe Gaborik is used there.
That provides the Kings with their top three centers, three very good core wingers, and a grindy core piece in Kyle Clifford. It exposes Dustin Brown, Marian Gaborik, Jordan Nolan, Andy Andreoff, and Dwight King if he still remains a member of the Kings after next offseason.
While the exposing of Nolan, Andreoff and a player like King makes sense, Gaborik and Brown are pieces that are still of pretty solid value to a team that is trying to remain competitive.
While Gaborik's age and injury history is always a concern, when healthy he is one of the Kings most creative and offensively gifted players.
At age 34 he also makes a healthy 4.875 cap hit. One that could see major diminishing returns the longer it goes on. While his immediate impact would leave a hole, it would leave the Kings with a better long term outlook.
That same logic could be applied to exposing Dustin Brown,
whose statistical downturn in recent years has prompted him to fall out of favor with the team. While Brown is still a really good third line hockey player, his contract hurts the Kings, but would not hurt a team trying to make the cap floor. His leadership and past experience might also make for a nice asset in a new franchise.
This is projecting on the Kings current forward group. Who knows if any trades could go down or signings could happen that alter that group.
Same could be said about the defensive group, which with just three protections, exposes one very good player to the expansion draft.
Doughty and Muzzin are no brainers, but the Kings would have to choose between Alec Martinez and Brayden McNabb for the final third protection. McNabb just signed a $1.7 million dollar two-year "Show me" style bridge contract, while Martinez is signed at age 28 up until 2020-21.
While Martinez has been a very important player for the organization in the turnover in personnel recently, the expansion draft is all about weighing short term versus long term in respect to value. The decision on who to expose will almost certainly come down to performances this season. If McNabb takes a step forward, he may very well edge out the aging Martinez. However, if McNabb has a year of stagnation or even regression it becomes an obvious choice to stick with what has been a very valuable player.
Choosing the third defenseman would be the most difficult decisions the Kings could face in that format.
The Eight Skater Option
The eight skater option leaves you with more variability, but the penalty is fewer players.
For the Kings this might seem like a more reasonable option if McNabb pushes forward next season. They could protect almost their entire future defensive corps in Muzzin, Martinez, Doughty, Gravel, Forbort, and McNabb. With a team that thrives on defensive structure, and leans heavily on that group to carry the play up ice, not losing any would be fantastic.
However, the downside is that the Kings would have just four forwards to protect. That group becomes obvious when narrowed down to just four.
Kopitar, Carter, Toffoli, and Pearson/Lucic. Again, the Lucic protection all depends on what happens. If Lucic signs, it is Lucic, if he doesn't it is Pearson. Again, a lot can happen from now to the time this takes place.
If it is Lucic though, that leads the Kings to expose all of Nick Shore, Tanner Pearson, Marian Gaborik, and Dustin Brown. Those are four really good players that a team would love to have.
The dynamic in this format exposes less of the Kings talented defensive corps, but more of their forward group.
In the eight skater format, it really comes down to who you value more: Brayden McNabb or Tanner Pearson/Nick Shore.
That is not an easy question to answer, and they will definitely have to make cases for themselves this coming season if the expansion draft is to take place before the 2017-18 season.
All things considered, with the few no trade clauses Dean Lombardi gives out and the long incubation period the Kings put on their prospects, the franchise is actually well set up to endure an expansion draft.
Other teams like Pittsburgh and the New York Rangers may have to expose extremely good players due to the amount of young talent they have and/or No-Trade Clauses they have on their team. Dean Lombardi has rightly been careful with these types of deals, and it could pay off quite well in an expansion draft year.
Also, had players like Forbort, Dowd, or Gravel, played more than 25 games in either of the last two seasons, it would have exposed them to the draft if they were regulars on the team for the 2016-17 season. (If my understanding of the first and second year idea applies to "Rookie season" eligibility)
Whether it was by good fortune and happenstance, or by careful planning from the Kings management, they stand in a good spot with the expansion draft. They are exposing players that, while it would hurt to lose them, it helps them in a cap situation or in a depth chart situation.
Given the tentative format of protection, which would you choose as a GM?
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