The Los Angeles Kings are in a tough spot right now.
Dean Lombardi is staring at a roster that has now missed the playoffs and gone out in the first round the last two years combined.
Thus, Lombardi's almost "state of the franchise" -esque conference call last week was somber, frustrated, a bit disappointed, but also determined to get things back on track.
The Kings have an aging roster, pressed up near the cap, with a lot of players locked in for a very long time. In fact, the Kings have eight players signed to contracts that take them up to 2020 and beyond.
One of these players is the Kings' 31-year old captain, Dustin Brown. His contract is a hefty one, at $5.875MM AAV per season. He is also signed up until 2022, meaning that at the expiration of his contract he will be a healthy 37-years old. On top of his age and cap hit, the last few years have not been the greatest for Brown.
This led to some poignant, yet still protective, comments by Lombardi in his conference call in regards to the Ithaca, New York native:
“Clearly we need more from him, but [you could say that about] a lot of players,”
He would later go on to say,
On an individual basis, I don’t think there’s anybody more frustrated than Dustin himself. The one thing he has done, as you say, he showed up in the best shape he’s ever showed up in this year. They’ve got their own private coaches now, a lot of these players … and the fact that he took the initiative to do that shows how much he cares. But with that said, there’s no question that we expect more from him, and he does himself, and sometimes I think he puts so much on himself that he starts gripping it.
That "Gripping it" has led to a tremendous statistical downturn for the once 30 goal scorer. Brown now embodies the theory of players being on the decline after about age 25. Brown perhaps hit his peak at a 30-goal 23-year old season in 2007-08 where he was largely featured alongside burgeoning young star Anze Kopitar and the talented wingers Patrick O'Sullivan and Mike Cammalleri. He would follow that up with four more years of 20+ goal, 50+ point production. Under a six-year deal and a very affordable $3.175, the Kings were getting tremendous value out of their young captain and top six winger. He brought it all. Hits, production, leadership, a strong on and off-ice work ethic, and community service. It would be hard to argue that there was a player more deserving of a raise than "Brownie".
However, that raise came at probably the worst of times.
The reasons he got it are well established, however, the last two years of his original contract, and since the lockout season of 2012-13 he has not been the same player at all. His production has cut in half. His powerplay production, which was a major source of his points through the bountiful years, has dried up almost completely. His ice time has gone from 1st/2nd line to 3rd. Finally, his contract is now widely considered an albatross, and one of the more bloated and damaging in the league.
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And perhaps the most difficult thing about this is that if you separate the man and the contract, Dustin Brown would still be a very worthwhile player to have on your roster. He can kill penalties, is pretty good defensively, is a physical, hard-working player, and yes the leadership is great also. The irony of sports is that when Brown was playing like a 1st line player he was getting paid like a 3rd. That role has reversed now, much to the dismay of Dean Lombardi.
We could go on and on about how and why this came about, but the reality here is that Dustin Brown is still very much a King. There are options here, and Dean Lombardi is almost certainly mulling over all the possibilities pertaining to our headline question today: What can you do with Dustin Brown?
Here are the options.
Trade Him
This seems to be one of the more popular answers circulating around. The antithesis to this, however, is just who exactly will take him?
Yes, there are cap floor teams that need to get players. The Florida Panthers are often brought up. The Winnipeg Jets also with their massive amount of projected cap space (Around 20M) have been a popular destination for the aging winger.
However, these are teams that are normally in one of two areas in their franchise state: Rebuilding on the upswing, or blowing it up on the downswing.
A contract like Dustin Brown's, at least the dollar value, would not be difficult thing for these teams to eat FOR A FEW YEARS. The problem here is the term. These teams eye at being young and competitive probably 3-5 years if they are rebuilding correctly. In four years, in the midst of your window, a 35-year old Dustin Brown making over $5 million dollars a season is not a good looking contract to project out on. Especially when it comes to locking down young talent with big contracts, ala Nikolaj Ehlers, Nick Bjugstad, or Aaron Ekblad. If you cannot sign or have tremendous difficulty getting young players under the cap due to bloated contracts ala Dustin Brown or Dave Bolland that is a one way ticket to the unemployment line as a GM. Just ask Dale Tallon
Unless the Kings are willing to eat some cap space for their Captain in order to get his hit down, he would likely go nowhere in a trade. It will not come cheap either. Getting him off the books would be a favor to Los Angeles, and few teams would feel so kind hearted as to do it for little in return. Draft picks would almost certainly be involved, and the Kings do not have a ton of those.
Further complication the matter, Dustin Brown has a modified No-Trade Clause. He can submit a list to the Kings of seven teams he cannot be traded to. While that still leaves 22 teams for him to go to, it does make life a bit more difficult if they were to go that route.
Buy him out
Simple and direct, but good luck with this one.
Let's say the Kings don't wait and buyout Brown on June 15th of this offseason. The buyout structure would put the team on the hook for the remainder of his deal all the way through to 2027-28. Now they would be saving quite a bit in the next five years versus what they would have to pay out if he remained, in 2020-22 that hit would be close to $4 million dollars of dead space. Plus they would have to pay him all the way through to 2028 even though his original contract would not be on the books. Relief now, hurt later.
General Fanager has this all laid out incredibly well, and it remains one of the leading sites in NHL cap information and tools.
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You have to also consider that the Kings will still be paying out the Mike Richards settlement and recapture until 2020, which is around $1.5 Million AAV. Essentially, the Kings would be paying close to 4 or 5 million dollars in recapture/buyout penalties to two players for not being on their team.
That's a lot of money.
Also look at the timing of it all. In between the ears of 2018-20, when the Kings are paying both of the aforementioned players, there will be a number of players looking for or under new contracts. Nick Shore, Kevin Gravel, Tyler Toffoli, Tanner Pearson, and the big domino of Drew Doughty will all be up for RFA or UFA from the seasons of 2017-2020. FURTHERMORE, there are players who are currently looking for deals that will be raises, ala Brayden McNabb, Milan Lucic, and Nic Dowd that have not yet factored into the Kings long term financial plans. Both McNabb and Lucic would likely take up a large chunk of money. While that 4 to 5 million may not seem like much now, it may make the difference in keeping a player like Kevin Gravel or Tanner Pearson instead of having to let them go.
Then there is the inevitable media and public perception backlash of buying out your team captain.
With so many potential negatives it seems unlikely this happens.
You've Made Your Bed...
The other very possible option here is that the Kings just keep him and deal with the cap hit.
The honest truth is that aside from his contract Dustin Brown has a lot to offer still as a third line role player. Yes, it is almost impossible to accept him as such when he is getting paid so much, but he can be a part of a winning formula with what he brings to the game. He has leveled off at about 25-30 points as of right now, playing in a third liner's role. He is still a darn good possession player who can play all situations, AND he has been riding three straight years of a below career average shooting percentage.
Career average:
9.3
2013-14:
7.8
2014-15:
5.5
2015-16:
5.0
Along with that, he has still remained a player that takes a ton of shots and has a ton of scoring chances generally. He just never converts.
There IS hope that he can perhaps see that shooting percentage tick up and get back into 30-40 point range and near 20 goals. It is not entirely out of the realm of possibilities all things considered.
The problem is that he likely will not be getting any better with age, and as frustrated as people are now imagine what it could be in four years. Again, when you have to re-sign a deluge of young core players.
Secret option No. 4: EXPANSION DRAFT!
Bottom Line
Truth be told, it would take just as much fancy cap work to keep Brown on the roster as it would to buy him out or trade him. If it came to a trade, you are probably talking cap retention. That part would vary of course, but it could be as much as a buyout penalty would be. Trading him likely sees you part with coveted future assets, something the Kings already have a limited amount of. However, those assets could very well turn into nothing, being that picks and prospects are sometimes a gamble all on their own. Buying him out comes with the least amount of variables, but its own unique set of detrimental circumstances. Keeping him for at least the short term saddles you with a rough contract, but one that can still be moved at a later time. It could be patience that does not pay off however, and the Kings could sink further into a hole with a player not meeting value, and not growing in it on a trade market either.
Regardless of which route Dean Lombardi takes, it would be hard to envy the position he is currently in. Brown has served his time in Los Angeles admirably, and it is a shame that these are the decisions a cap era brings a GM to. Nevertheless, it is all becoming a very real financial fix for the Kings in a very short amount of time. There are three clear options here: A patient and hopeful one (Keep him), an impulsive yet decisive one (Buyout), and a gambler's/negotiator's one (Trade).
How would you like to see this play out?
What do you do with Dustin Brown?
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