Strange that in a season that now seems so disappointing, the Kings have players in contention for three trophies.
Last week it was announced that Anze Kopitar would be up for the Lady Byng and the Selke. Although he is the long shot for both it seems (Hudler and Toews it is all you fellas), it is still an honor that he is being recognized. The somewhat humorous side of it is that Kopitar had arguably his worst season outside of his rookie year, but has steadily been getting more recognition as the Kings have become a prominent team.
The one player that has a legitimate chance at a trophy this year is Drew Doughty. Yesterday it was announced that he was a finalist for the Norris, along with P.K. Subban of the Canadiens and Erik Karlsson of the Senators.
Amongst those three players, you have to think the Doughty has as good a shot as ever to take home the title of "Best All-Around Defenseman" this year.
First off, let's look at each candidate and maybe ruffle some feathers when it comes to who is in and maybe who should have been in.
When we are looking at best ALL-AROUND Defenseman you want to look at the scope of their entire game.
Erik Karlsson was, again, an offensive dynamo. He led all defenseman in the league in scoring and took a league-leading 292 shots. He is a spectacular powerplay quarterback and logged 30 of his 66 points on the powerplay. He also ate a ton of minutes for the Sens, coming in at third in total time on ice in the league at 27:15. His CF% is in the top 40, he has pretty evenly distributed zone starts. He is an offensive workhorse and has made a lot of strides defensively as well this year. Karlsson is, at least in this man's opinion, a fine candidate for this year's Norris.
However, both Karlsson and Subban suffer from the same detractor. At 5-on-5 they are used way more offensively than defensively. Their zone starts at 5-on-5 are very very favorable. In fact, when you narrow it down to the 129 eligible defenseman who played over 1000 minutes this year, both Karlsson and Subban rank 114th and 115th in relative offensive and defensive zone starts. Not surprisingly, a guy like Justin Schultz who is openly criticized for his one-dimensional play, is dead last in this metric. Suter is also in the mix for the bottom 10, as are names like Yandle, Klefbom, Dan Boyle, Ekblad, and Krug, etc. So you get the idea.
On the flip side, Drew Doughty comes in at 64th on this list. Which to me is ultimately right where you want your best all-around defenseman to be. His relative zone starts are almost at 0. With a -1.8 ZSO Doughty plays in the defensive zone only slightly more. Maybe it is coaching that separates the three players, but maybe it is style and skill set. Sutter showed extreme trust in Doughty this year and used him in practically every situation. You cannot say the same for Subban and Karlsson. Guys like Justin Faulk or Duncan Keith have a -2.77 and -1.13 respectively.
Also, if you were wondering who the defenseman were that get absolutely mauled with defensive zone starts were: Willie Mitchell, Erik Gudbranson, Dan Girardi, Adam Larsson, Michalek, Staal and Roman Josi. Even the Kings very own Robyn Regehr makes it into the top 20 in that regard.
Some guys are built to play a more defensive game, some are built to play a more offensive game. Then you have the guys like Keith, Doughty, Faulk, Hamonic, Bouwmeester, Pietrangelo etc etc. who can do basically everything for your team.
Interesting talking points in terms of defenseman as well, when you compare Calder finalist Aaron Ekblad alongside other outstanding rookie John Klingberg, the zone starts are astronomically different. The 18-year old had a remarkable season, but his coaches used him in situations of lower risk than John Klingberg. For example, Ekblad got nearly 40% of his zone starts in the offensive zone versus Klingberg's 28. Yet, Klingberg finished with 40 points to Ekblad's 39. He also finished with more average ice time than Ekblad, more shifts per game, and each had similar special team's time.
Yet Ekblad is a finalist for the Calder while Klingberg, arguably the better defenseman sits on the sideline.
In essence this is how these trophies can work. It is as much about the on ice play as it is the popularity, notoriety, and personality of the player.
Let's talk Subban. P.K. Subban is a wonderfully enthusiastic player. He is fun to watch, he is a good solid defenseman, and he means a lot to the Canadiens. Is he a Norris candidate this year? No.
When you compare Subban to the likes of Doughty, Karlsson, Keith or Faulk, it is hard to find that Subban should be in the final three. You could
almost say the same for Erik Karlsson, but it is neck to neck in that regard. Oliver Ekmann-Larsson should be in this conversation as well.
We are measuring the best ALL-AROUND defenseman in the NHL. Not the best offensive defenseman, not the best defensive defenseman. Maybe one day there will be an award to differentiate. For now though we are to battle the definition of all-around on a yearly basis.
Subban comes in within the top-50 of most metrics. We already have seen that his zone starts are established in a more offensive manner. His Corsi for % stands at 43rd overall in the NHL. For posterity, Doughty's is number two overall behind partner Jake Muzzin. Subban was sixth overall in time on ice per game, top 30 in shot blocking (Whereas Doughty is top 50 and Karlsson bottom 40), and he was tied for second overall in scoring.
Again, for posterity, Doughty was 14th overall in scoring this year amongst defensemen.
But here is the problem with Subban: you cannot say that the team is any better defensively while he is on the ice versus off. Offensively it is absolutely night and day. Montreal and Ottawa are worlds better offensively with both Karlsson and Subban on the ice. However, where does that stack up when we are talking about a defenseman? An all-around defenseman no less. Ask yourself this: Where would Subban's numbers be this year if Carey Price had not been the world-beater that he was?
Here is the shot suppression at even strength of both Subban and Karlsson this year with, and without them on the ice.
P.K. Subban
Erik Karlsson
Now for sake of comparison, here is Doughty:
First think you probably will notice is, wow, Montreal and Ottawa give up a lot more shots than the Kings at evens.
Second thing, Karlsson's numbers are, again, very good. Shots in the "House" are more limited when he is on the ice versus off. With Doughty, everything remains standard.
Now with Subban, there is a spike in what you would consider
his area of the ice. The shots get suppressed from the outside a touch, but the high scoring area...not so much. When you go down the list of potential candidates, you will see numbers that mostly stack up with Doughty and Karlsson. But not Subban.
When you get into the Doughty and Subban debate, it is really a stark contrast. Doughty did not have an outstanding offensive year by any stretch. He was good, but not great. However, he logged an unbelievable amount of high quality minutes for the Kings and drove the play for them on a nightly basis. You cannot say the same for Subban. Doughty also faced the highest relative quality of competition versus Subban and Karlsson at even strength.
So why is Subban a finalist? Doughty is a fantastic pick for it. Karlsson is a worthwhile pick for it. But why Subban? Especially when you consider that Justin Faulk and Duncan Keith were both left out of the final three, and both had seasons that were arguably BETTER than both Karlsson and even Doughty.
Who knows.
Subban plays a very big game. He is noticable. He is noticeable in good ways and in bad ways quite frequently. He is an attention grabber for numerous reasons, and heck, he is just plain fun to watch. I personally love watching Subban play, but was he a finalist this year? Not really. That, of course, is just my opinion. It is up for debate, just like all of the votes cast for these awards. I anticipate the comment section to be ripe with people ready to vehemently call for my place at the hockey guillotine for that opinion. Therein lies the fun.
It all comes down to who is voting, and what they are looking for. The definition of what we are looking for in the league's best all-around defenseman is somehow still ambiguous, even though all-around is right in the description! And this works for every trophy basically. How much does team success matter? Are we not considering Faulk and OEL because Arizona and Carolina were atrocious this year? Is that the same reason Steve Mason is not a Vezina finalist yet Pekka Rinne is despite having one of the best adjusted save percentages in the league?
Sometimes it is a word of mouth or a hype-driven thing, ala Klingberg versus Ekblad. Sometimes it is the more subtle versus the attention grabber, ala Doughty v. Subban. That is why we run into these debates.
To me the finalists should have been Faulk, Doughty, and Keith. Karlsson could be swapped in for any of those names and I would have been okay with it.
It is human driven voting and we all have different opinions. What are we looking for in the Norris? Your guess is as good as mine. Now we just have to see who wins come the offseason.
Is it a completely homer move to say that Doughty should win it? He has my vote, and he should probably have a lot of the votes.
Who do you think should win it? Why? Are these even the right finalists?
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