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The Toffoli Effect

January 30, 2015, 5:19 PM ET [19 Comments]
Jason Lewis
Los Angeles Kings Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Tyler Toffoli returned to the Kings lineup the other night after a six game absence with mono. And without fail the 22-year old had an immediate impact.

With a goal and an assist, Toffoli and his line led the offensive charge for the Kings as they picked up a much needed win against the Chicago Blackhawks. As the Kings embark on an Eastern conference road trip, two points against the Blackhawks at home was of the utmost importance. Actually, given the time of year and the current standings, every game is of the utmost importance.

The Kings will definitely need all hands on deck for this stretch run.

You don't have to worry about this from Tyler Toffoli though. The former 2nd round pick has been in fine form all season.

With 29 points and 13 goals in 42 games this season, Toffoli is on pace to break 50 points in his sophomore season.

However, maybe the more impressive numbers come when you look into the analytics. Primarily how Toffoli has helped improve his teammates when on ice together.

Toffoli is essentially leading the Kings, or close to it, in every analytical category. Points per 60, iCorsi (i = individual) per 60, shots, iFenwick, etc. etc.

Frankly, Toffoli may be the best Kings player this season.

Looking at the table provided by Domenic Galamini of the blog Own the Puck, you can see just how good Toffoli has been. He isn't even putting up numbers of a 2nd line winger. These have been first line numbers.



Very impressive stuff.

Along with these numbers being good, for the most part Toffoli has been good with or without his linemates. The three most common linemates he has had this season are Jeff Carter, Dwight King, and Tanner Pearson. With Pearson being out for what is likely the season, King will likely step into the role of top 6 more regularly. Of those three, all of them show improvement in corsi for, scoring chances, and production with Toffoli on the ice versus without.

Another good graph to visual this with is provided by War-on-Ice.com.



As you can see, even Jeff Carter has benefitted from having the young sniper on his wing.

Of all the players on the Kings, only Doughty and Muzzin have a negative differential when Toffoli is on the ice.

These are all very good things for the Kings and for Toffoli.

As of late, Darryl Sutter has even opted to use Toffoli on the penalty kill, which shows a level of trust in the young forward's defensive game. Nonetheless, the minutes that Darryl Sutter has provided Toffoli have been consistently inconsistent. They seem to change game to game, and shift to shift. Toffoli is averaging just 13:49 a game in ice time, which is 9th amongst the Kings active 13 forwards. His even strength totals are only 11:19, which is higher than only Jordan Nolan and Kyle Clifford.



Sutter has been very careful with Toffoli, but the averages have slowly crept upwards. All of the 60 minute rates are excellent, but one must remember that a rate doesn't necessarily morph into actuality. Even with all the positives in his game you have to be prepared for a drop when actual minutes are applied and not just theorized minutes. Is Sutter being too careful with Toffoli though? Perhaps a little. However, with Richards and Pearson both gone the likelihood that he sees increased minutes seems inevitable. Or maybe Sutter will torture us all and put Dwight King into a more prominent role. Who knows.

One thing is for certain, Toffoli has been exceptional in 2014-15. You could make a case that he has been the Kings best player this season and they will need that play to continue moving forward if they want to secure a playoff spot. The immediate impact he had on the Kings was evident in the Blackhawks game, and overall he has had an effect like that all season long.

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