We lost a very good hockey prospect resource back in June, as Hockey's Future ceased operation on the prospect and editorial side of things.
Other good sources exist like Dobber, HockeyProspect, Elite Prospects etc. etc.
However, few actually gave such a good and comprehensive compilation of the prospects within a team's system. That being said there were still tons of grey areas as to how we at the site ACTUALLY rated the prospects. With a combination of numbers and letter grades, we at Hockey's Future tried to find a definitive upside and probability number.
It was difficult. I know from experience, I wrote there for around four years.
Why is it difficult? After all, it is just saying "Player XYZ Could be a top 6 forward"
Well, he could have the skills of that BUT they may be a long way off. Or his skating might be hindering his offensive ability. Etc. etc.
There are a lot of moving parts when it comes to trying to project and predict the future of such young players. Hockey's Future and other sites do their best to balance this. What is easier is maybe not breaking it by upside in terms of ranking prospects, but by separating it by true NHL readiness and upside. For example, Andy Andreoff two years ago looked like a shoe in to get on the NHL roster. Was his upside anything more than a 4th liner? Maybe a fringe 3rd? Not really. BUT his NHL readiness was worth noting.
With that in mind, instead of rating the upside of the Kings prospect pipeline (Which we will do later on when I return from vacation) let's check on who might be the most NHL ready of all the Kings prospects.
*Note* For clarification purposes, Forbort was not included in the list but if you wanted to include him he'd be in the 3-4 area.
1. Kevin Gravel, D, 24
Watching Gravel last season in the AHL, you realized just how dominant he was. Especially late in the year when he was getting closer and closer to his inevitable NHL call up. His cool and calm presence on the puck was paramount in the Reign moving the puck out of their own zone. Often teams tried to employ heavy forechecks against Ontario (Bakersfield and Texas for example), and it did have pretty strong success against some of the Reign's more raw players. Gravel was noticeably more calm and decisive than most of his AHL counterparts.
He also logged heavy minutes at the AHL level, playing in the range of 24-26 a night when it was tracked. He collected minutes on the powerplay, penalty kill, and late game scenarios with the Reign either defending a lead or needing a big goal.
All in all, Gravel has the most NHL ready skillset right now in the Kings system.
2. Nic Dowd, C, 26
Dowd was the offensive catalyst of the Reign last season. Like Gravel, he had just the right combination of responsibility, huge minutes, and natural skills to be considered ready to take a step into the NHL. And he did late in the year. While the road block for Dowd seems to be his place on the depth chart in the NHL, there is no denying his offensive creativity, intelligent two-way game, and potential impact as an all-situations center IF the Kings want to give him that chance. While he still tends to make risky plays at times, overall he is the most NHL ready center in the Kings system. He is good in all three zones, is a tenacious forechecker, and has enough bite to his game that you feel like he could manage the bigger and heavier players in the NHL. Does his offense come around in the NHL? Who knows. With the right linemates and some adjustment time it seems like he could be just as good a facilitator in the NHL as he was in the AHL.
3. Michael Mersch, LW/RW, 23
With Dowd being the set-up man, Mersch was the finisher.
However, Mersch did not finish the way you would imagine a guy who scored 24 goals in 52 games would finish. He rarely shot, and frankly does not have a pure goal scorers shot. Mersch's hand in tight though are tremendous. He can maneuver pucks around sprawling goaltenders, make excellent tips in front, and generally use his strong physical play to be a nuisance in front of goaltenders. These are all tremendous skills to have, especially in a Kings system which prides itself on hard hockey and traffic in front. Pucks on net right? Mersch has been one of the more productive forwards for the Kings minor league affiliate the last two seasons, and last year he got an extended 17 game look to his NHL game.
The big setback with Mersch? His skating. While his goal line to blueline game in both zones is excellent, the transition game with Mersch proved to be a difficult obstacle in making the effective jump in the NHL. Skating is becoming a much larger part to the new NHL, and that knock might be hard to shake. Mersch is noted as an extremely hard worker and a harsh critic on his own game, and over the summer he did mention working with a skating coach back home. With that focus, Mersch may round out into a solid bottom six contributor soon. He does, however, have eligibility to go back to the AHL next year without having to clear waivers. His camp, and how much of an improvement he has made in the area of mobility, will largely decided where he starts off the year.
4. Justin Auger, RW/LW, 22
While in his previous year the offensive ability was a little hit and miss, Auger really put things together last season. He started utilizing his massive 6'7" frame, he played effectively up and down the roster for coach Mike Stothers, and he flashed previously unseen hands and puck maneuvering skills at the AHL level. 19 goals does not seem like a lot considering how active and difficult ap layer Auger was in the offensive zone. Perhaps quietly, 19 goals was actually third on the team last season behind Michael Mersch and Sean Backman. Auger is an industrious skater but he manages to get up and down the ice well enough that it is not a knock on his game. He also added effective penalty kill minutes and defensive play to his game. While there still seems to be one more gear to his overall game, Auger vaulted up on the radar significantly over the past year in terms of an NHL ready player. He has the size, he has flashed the skills, and he may very well be an outside shot at a call up next season.
5. Kurtis MacDermid, D, 22
Depth chart logjam aside, MacDermid might be the Kings most NHL ready defensemen outside of Kevin Gravel (If we aren't counting Derek Forbort). Why you ask? He plays a simple game, an effective game, and a game that is not all that different than Kings defenseman Matt Greene. MacDermid will not wow you with offensive skills, but he can skate and move the puck surprisingly well, and devastate opponents and the red and blue line with huge hits. He is also an effective defender in his own zone with both body and stickwork. With a little improvement on his first three steps he will have everything he needs to be a potential depth defenseman in the NHL. MacDermid has been on a slow upward trajectory since the Kings signed him. Considering that coming into this year both Nick Ebert and Kevin Raine had pro experience over MacDermid, and Zach Leslie and Alex Lintuniemi had perhaps internal hype over him, the free agent signing stole a roster spot in his rookie year and never looked back. That is impressive. The only games he missed were those serving a suspension for his hit on San Diego's Matt Bailey.
6. Adrian Kempe, LW/RW, 19
Kempe being this far down on the list is likely going to worry and upset a few people. Because "AHHH FIRST ROUND PICK WHAT A BUST HE'S NOT PLAYING IN THE NHL YET!"
But seriously, at age 19, playing in the AHL already, what were you expecting? The truth is Kempe has a tremendous NHL projectable skill set but he NEEDS a full, unadulterated year, in the AHL. Last year his season was broken up by niggling injuries and the World Junior Championships. He never really looked all that settled into his rookie season, and that was reflected in his on ice production. When Kempe made plays, they were head turning plays, sometimes exceptional plays. However, those instances were few and far between, and also peppered with moments where you were saying "Kid has got to learn." Which, that is incredibly fair. Kempe needs time to learn the game still. Anyone projecting him onto the NHL roster at this point for next season is really rushing him far too much. Yes he was a first round selection, but even first round selections need development time. Kempe is a fantastic player, and with one more year in the AHL to really round out his game he could be a top-six producer in the future.
7. Jonny Brodzinski, RW, 23
Just like Kempe, Brodzinski needs a full year of productive hockey where he is relied upon more by the Ontario Reign coaching staff. Progress made through the year from the young sniper included being more assertive in the offensive zone, playing much better in his own zone, and also logging penalty kill minutes late in the season.
Overall Brodzinski has NHL sniper written all over him. There is a great combination of speed, offensive lethality, a laser guided shot, and intelligent thinking of the game. Everything just simply needs to get more exposure, have more pressure put on it, and improve under that pressure.
8. Michael Amadio, C, 20
After a fantastic year with North Bay, Amadio jumped up to Ontario for the late season playoff run in the AHL.
And he actually didn't look out of place AT ALL.
That was surprising. You would have thought hesitation, or some deficiencies in his game would have surfaced, but the young forward really took to the pro game. Now, that was only an 11 game sample, granted in the AHL playoffs. Consistency often rears its ugly head over the course of a full season. He may also be the primary go to center if Nic Dowd sticks with the NHL squad. There is a lot potentially riding on Amadio next season, and if he succeeds we could see him very soon in a Kings uniform.
9. Paul LaDue, D, 23
Last year's stagnation at UND was a bit concerning, but the Kings came to turns with the young puck mover before he joined the Reign for the playoffs. Even in his small sample in the AHL, it is apparent that LaDue can really move the puck and skate well. He is a new NHL defenseman, and a good chip to have in the system at the moment. While he is probably a bit further off than some given his limited pro experience and the so-so 2015-16, he has a great skill set to project into the NHL.
10. Andrew Crescenzi, C, 24
Surprise? Yeah maybe. While Crescenzi is not an offensive stalwart, his defensive game is absolute nails. If there was a big penalty kill, a defensive zone draw, or a three-on-five that needed to be killed, Cresc was the guy. Between he and Dowd, the Reign had two incredibly solid and astute defensive centers capable of shutting down top offensive units.
Of course, looking at 5 goals and 21 points in 60+ game is not the sexiest number. However, Crescenzi's defensive usefulness could already be NHL ready. He just does not have an offensive upside that warrants a current roster spot or a hopeful projection. That being said, if you looked down the center group and said "If player XYZ can't go, then who is next?" Crescenzi certainly slots in behind Dowd and Amadio in terms of NHL ready. He has the AHL experience, is coming off a career year in numbers, and was a massive fixture in the Reign's bottom six center group all year. Also, he was really good in faceoffs almost all season. Overall he would not be a bad bottom six center if the occasion called for one.
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The blog might be a little quiet for the next week. I am off to vacation and will not be able to post much, if at all over the next week.
We kick into preview mode when I return however. The season is just around the corner!
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