Hard to say that momentum is on anyone's side at this point in the Los Angeles Kings and San Jose Sharks series.
If Game 1 put momentum on the plate of San Jose, Game 3 wrestled it back a bit for the Kings. Now as we approach the do or die moments of the series, Game 4 provides an opportunity for both team to grab control of their first round match-up with a win tonight.
For San Jose, a win in Game 4 means a 3-1 series lead heading back to Los Angeles, a place they won the first two games of the series. For Los Angeles Game 4 presents an opportunity to get back even in the series, essentially making it a best of three series with home ice advantage.
Safe to say that the winner of tonight's game will have control of their destiny for the remainder of the series.
The Difference so far
It has not been much in all honesty. While the play in Game 1 was pretty well in favor of the Sharks, Game 2 and Game 3 were much closer in terms of on ice quality. You could even say that Game 2 was in favor of the Kings and Game 3 in that of the Sharks. Nevertheless, that is how hockey goes sometimes. Even strength play has been altogether equal with the major difference coming in the form of special teams, which are playing an even larger role than we theorized at the onset of the series. In all three games the Kings have given the Sharks ample opportunity with the extra man. In Game 1 the difference was the execution and outright dominance of the SJ powerplay. In Game 2 the Kings limited their powerplay production, and in Game 3 they were a perfect 5-for-5 on the kill, while denying two late game powerplays with the score tied. The series is the way it is currently mainly due to special teams. The 5-on-5 play has been even, measured, and heavy, but ultimately a stalemate.
Tonight's Game
No changes are expected from either team in terms of lineups.
Yes, Kings fans, that means that there is still no Alec Martinez.
It would also seem that the Kings are planning on sticking with the defensive lineup that seemed to do okay in Game 3. That would be Scuderi/Doughty, Muzzin/Schenn, and McNabb/McBain. While not the most ideal of lineups in the greater scheme of things, it is a lineup that was good in Game 3 and should get another look in Game 4. As mentioned in the Game 3 post game, the setup allows both Schenn and Scuderi to be protected to a degree being paired up with Doughty and Muzzin. McNabb and McBain both saw limited minutes (around 10 and 6 minutes respectively) in a tight game. So if tonight proves to be a similar style of tight checking, low scoring game, expect a lot of the same.
The Sharks have remained intent on rolling four lines and three pairs, with the Vlasic, Burns, and Martin getting the lion's share of minutes on the backend.
Up front the match-up remains. It is big boys against big boys.
View post on imgur.com
Despite the heavy matchup from Kopitar, his line still remains very positive at even strength in many regards. Based on the chart above, the Kings top two lines are doing well in scoring chances and coris, while getting an even spread of zone starts AND most of the time on ice. That is exceptional, and everything you want to see. In fact, most of the Kings players are getting it done at even strength, while the only struggling duo seems to be that of Lecavalier/Brown. Hopefully, however, the excellent overtime winner in Game 3 can jump start the line as a whole during regulation time in Game 4. Tanner Pearson continues to be a bit of an unsung hero in these playoffs, leading the team in relative corsi and remaining above the mendoza line of scoring chances.
Lines for the Sharks have brought mixed results, but results you would expect in this small three game sample.
View post on imgur.com
The top 6 have been good, and the bottom lines have been, at times, a liability. As we theorized at the onset, this series may be won by the Lecavaliers, Browns, Spalings, and Nietos of this series. That is, if the top two lines stalemate as do the special teams.
Goaltending a Factor?
Hard to really say that it has been, which we have come to expect in the playoffs. Goaltending is wildly volatile, and while we often act like it is a huge difference maker that can be overstated.
What we CAN however derive from the goaltending numbers so far is that Martin Jones has been very good, however not tested. While his opposite, Jonathan Quick, has seen a large numbers of quality chances while perhaps struggling with the more routine chances.
With a view of style taken into account, it is not all that surprising to see that Martin Jones has been 100% perfect on medium and low danger chances, while posting a suspect high danger save percentage (When athleticism would be needed). Quick is exactly the opposite.
View post on imgur.com
But when looking at it from raw numbers at 5v5, Jones has only had to face 11 high danger chances, while Quick has faced 19. The takeaway for the Kings is that they must press into high scoring areas more than they have so far in this series.
Key Players
For the Kings it is going to be their third line duo of Lecavalier/Brown. They simply have to be better for them at even strength and build upon a huge goal and a heavy hitting game in Game 3. Another player that the Kings are going to need continued good play from is Marian Gaborik. If we are thinking about the above idea of pressing into high scoring areas, Gaborik has been the most active and noticeable player at driving the center lane and pushing the San Jose defense back.
For San Jose it will be none other than Pavelski/Thornton/Hertl. They make this team click, and they will have to do so yet again. They will also need the continued steadiness of Martin Jones, who has stopped the shots he should be stopping through the first three games of this series. Even though he has not been tested, he has yet to have any Steve Mason esque slip ups that could hurt his team.
Tune in at 730PM PST 1030 EST to see what happens in an altogether pivotal Game 4 of the Western Conference playoffs.
Follow me on twitter for news and notes about the Kings and the NHL
Also be sure to like HockeyBuzz on facebook!
Los Angeles Kings Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»