The Kings have a lot of players vying for spots this year.
We discussed the depths of the defense last time out, but the idea of having too many players and not enough spots is not contained purely to the defensive group. The Kings forward group is also packed with potential suitors, but only a few can make the team.
The Kings got some good news recently,
as Jordan Nolan was considered medically cleared after going under the knife for back surgery last season. The 27-year old played 52 games last season, before unexpectedly settling in on the IR mid February. Thankfully at the time the Kings were not losing a hot handed player, and Nolan himself was not in the midst of a torrid career year. The rugged forward had not scored in his 52 appearances on the season, and it now stands as his first season ever where he did not register at least a goal.
But now, Nolan is back, healthy, and presumably ready to fight for his spot on the Kings 4th line.
It is honestly a difficult thing to be a fringe 4th line player in the NHL. Your job is essentially never safe. Most, if not all 4th line players have a similar skill set of hard nosed, tough, heavy hitting hockey, with limited offensive upside. With that in mind, there is always someone ready, able, and younger to step in and take your job. An injury could be your deathknell.
With Nolan, however, his spot has never rightly been secure in much capacity. He has never played a full season of his five in the NHL, capping out at 64 games in his 24-year old 2013-14 season. That was also his most productive season (Scoring 6 goals and 10 points), and the only full season in which he finished above the 50% watermark in possession stats.
With those possession stats in mind, Nolan has always been a negative contributor in a team relative sense. He is, overall, a -7.1 team relative corsi, and a -7.8 team relative Fenwick. In fact, 2013-14 remains Nolan's premier year so far in the NHL...and even then it is kind of skirting the line of replaceable and not.
He finished up the year above 50% in shots for while on the ice, at a 50.68%. He actually ended up 6th in per 60 goal scoring on the team that year, and 11th in points. He also had an exceptional penalty differential at a +16. That is a great trait for a scrappy, physical agitator like Nolan. However he still wound up in the red slightly in expected goals for % at 48.70, and of course his possession stats were also sub 50 as mentioned before. At that fine a number though it is probably okay if you do not have a more productive replacement ready.
All things considered, Nolan was probably an okay 4th line forward, with some offensive upside, in 2013-14.
The problem we have seen with Nolan is that unfortunately he has not built upon the untapped scoring potential or borderline possession play. At his ceiling, Nolan is a big bodied, fast, power forward who could chip in MAYBE 10 goals in a good year. You could have even imagined a more productive Jordan Nolan possibly taking the place of a Dwight King, or filling in as a spiritual successor to the 2009-2011 Kings version of Wayne Simmonds. Unfortunately, we have not seen it, and that is a shame. Sometimes the tools look like they are there, but a lot of times they do not. That is not to say Nolan is not a useful player, if you like very old school North-South hockey with little credence given to statistical methods that is. The issue at hand with Nolan has as much to do with Nolan the player as it does the sheer number of options the Kings have waiting in the wings.
The offseason acquisitions of Teddy Purcell and Michael Latta added two new pieces to the team that should mix up the forward group a little. On top of that you have Michael Mersch pushing for a bottom six job, and Nic Dowd also making his way onto the team. Andy Andreoff has show a willingness to switch to wing, and oh yeah, the Swiss army knife Trevor Lewis can also play all three forward positions. Basically, this offseason really should send a warning to all three players known as the LA Kings bottom line. Andreoff, Clifford, and Nolan all need big years, and big steps to retain their place on the roster. The latter two in particular are coming off years that do not instill a ton of confidence. In the pecking order of the existing roster, Nolan unfortunately would have to be the last name on the list.
Who exactly is he fighting with to keep his job?
While he is not a right wing like Nolan, a lot of people are probably thinking it is time for Dwight King to cede his position on the roster. King is arguably coming off his worst ever year as an L.A. King, but even then his head to head contributions eclipse that of Nolans.
If King takes yet another step back (Which here on the blog we do not actually think will happen), THEN we have a race on. Until then though you would almost have to give the nod to King. Funny enough, Dwight King went from being the quintessential 3rd liner at one point, to maybe being the ideal 4th line winger for the Kings now.
Michael Mersch is likewise a left wing, applying more pressure to that of Kyle Clifford than Nolan.
From a pure positional depth chart battle standpoint, Michael Latta is the big competition. What does Latta bring to the table that Nolan doesn't?
This:
Essential, low-risk, shot suppressing 4th line goodness. If you are going to put out a 4th line that does not really score much, pray to god they are doing their work defensively. Latta excelled at that while in Washington, while Jordan Nolan unfortunately rated as part of one of the highest corsi against regular lines at even strength on the season.
Yikes!
In short, Latta and Shore would be almost a perfect combination for each other, playing great shutdown defense with little in the way of offense.
It seems only natural when you consider the numbers above that the Kings are looking for a face lift from their 4th line, and perhaps elsewhere in the lineup to better that 4th line. What do we mean by that? Think Dwight King again for example. If Purcell bumps down King, King suddenly becomes a 4th line forward. Same goes for Dowd potentially bumping down Shore, or Dowd stepping in on the 4th line himself. Everyone takes one step down. With this in mind, you start to see how the moves for Purcell and Latta make sense, in conjunction with what is presumably an NHL job to Nic Dowd. Those are three forwards coming in, three maybe coming out, and possibly one or two being off the roster altogether depending on how the Kings want to carry extra forwards or dmen. Like penguins on a packed iceberg, one jumps on one end, one has to fall off of the other.
While the nail should not be inserted firmly in the coffin yet, the writing is certainly on the wall for some of the Kings 4th line members. Clifford is signed with the Kings through 2019-2020, and despite his down year, has historically played some good defensive hockey for the Kings. Andreoff, while a bit of a project at the start, showed some interesting versatility (playing on wing) and offensive upside towards the end of last season that had many doubling back on their early drawn opinions of him. Dwight King still has NHL utility and more goal scoring aptitude than some of the Kings current 4th line skaters. Surely Latta would not have been brought in in the summer to expose to waivers in the Fall. Likewise, Dowd was signed to a two year extension by the Kings and is not waiver exempt. The Kings would not likely commit to him only to uncommit via waiver wire would they? If you believe in feel good comeback stories, the Kings also have signed a sober Devin Setoguchi, who put up good numbers in the Swiss NLA last year, to a PTO. Does he make himself known? Nolan never got to complete the last stanza of his 2015-16 season due to injury, leaving us with many questions as to where he fits. There was no bounce back ala Andreoff, and instead he went on the shelf with many players creeping up behind him on the depth chart and making their presence known. Looking at the various situations, both statistically and contractually with Los Angeles's forward group, it is hard to see how he makes himself relevant at the moment.
All of that said, Nolan could come into camp with a fire in his belly and a mission to prove himself. With a good camp, it may be someone like Andreoff or King who sees themselves exposed to a waiver transaction, or a player like Mersch who is forced into the AHL yet again (which seems like a good possibility with his exemption and the log jam.)
Unfortunately with everything that has gone on, Nolan is the last dog to the bowl. He will need to really come in looking to work this camp to remain an NHL piece.
(Stats via
Corsica.Hockey and
Stats.Hockeyanalysis)
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