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Confidence in the Kings

July 15, 2016, 3:36 PM ET [47 Comments]
Jason Lewis
Los Angeles Kings Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT



In the long months of summer we do get to do one thing, a lot: Project.

We get to look towards the future. We are treated to development camp, rookie camp, new draftees, and sometimes more future looking moves for the organization.

The Kings pipeline, with all due respect to the drafting and development of the Kings, has become exceptionally thin over the years. Those unfortunately are the pitfalls of an organization desperately trying to make the most of their "Cup window".

In fact, in an effort to acquire more NHL ready prospects, the Kings have dealt away or accrued a loss of the following picks since 2010, bear with us, it's a lot.

4 1st round picks
5 2nd round picks
4 3rd round picks
1 4th round pick
2 5th round picks
and finally 1 6th and 1 7th round selections.

That is a total of 18 draft picks lost in trades over the past 5-6 years. If the Kings had kept every single draft pick since the 2010 draft to know, without acquiring extra selections, that is a total of 35 draft picks. The Kings have at one point traded 13 of a total possible 18 draft picks allocated over the first three rounds since 2010.

That is a massive amount of potential talent.

What you don't see in that lean breakdown, however, is that the Kings did acquire some picks back here and there from deals. They picked up three second round picks from the Linden Vey and Hudson Fasching deals. They acquired a 3rd and a 2nd round pick for dealing goalies Jonathan Bernier and Ben Scrivens. Then there are a plethora of deals where the Kings acquired mid to late round picks for players like Simon Gagne, Kevin Westgarth (Who magically netted them two picks...), and Davis Drewiske.

They have also used those picks to acquire players like Marian Gaborik, Brayden McNabb, Robyn Regehr, Jeff Carter, Mike Richards, Milan Lucic, and Jeff Halpern. AKA players who helped the Kings win in the "Right now" category. Two cups came at a cost, and the Kings dealt away a ton of very good prospects and advantageous draft positions, especially with the number of 1st round picks that have fallen out of the system.

So as much as the Kings have been in a "Win-now" mode, they have sprinkled in future outlook deals in there little by little.

The overwhelming theme though has been dealing what the Kings have in future assets for help in the now.

Why would any team want to do that?

It is simple really. You have a young core that is ready to win now. Why invest more in the future than in the short term, when your chance of winning is higher? The Kings perhaps sent a message to the management in 2009-10 and 2010-11 when they made the post-season back to back times. While they ultimately went out at the hands of two very good teams in the Canucks and the Sharks in the first round, they really showed that it was a team on the cusp of something with its young core of talented players. Perhaps never thinking there would be another chance better than now within his tenure, Lombardi went all in on trades to get players like Carter, Richards, and Dustin Penner. Three players that were ultimately pivotal in the Kings 2011-12 Stanley Cup.

Really hard to argue with success right?

Fast forward to 2016. Where do we stand? Many are frustrated, with a growing concern on the team's outlook. So frustrated, in fact, that The Hockey News feature of organizational confidence that was recently released had the Kings rank in at 20th among the NHL's 30 teams.

That kind of goes against what the feeling would have been after 2013-14 when the Kings had won their 2nd Stanley Cup in three years. Thus is the reality of the NHL. As much as it is a long term outlook style of sport, where we praise the Detroit Red Wings and Chicago Blackhawks of the world for perennial success, they too have done it in VERY different ways. Detroit has been the a great example of playing the long game with internal development, good drafting, and some low risk, high reward signings. We have seen that as recently as this offseason with the one-year acquisition of Thomas Vanek. They have parlayed their way out of the cyclical nature of the salary cap era for many years with a more subtle approach. Then you get Chicago, who seem to defy all logical reason with expensive free agent acquisitions, massive turnover of key players, and a draft and development team that has had to work with very little since about 2009. These are teams on opposite ends of the spectrum, and for many years they have made it work. They too, however, are now feeling the effects of what is an inevitable fate of cap era hockey.

The Kings have kind of wavered somewhere in between the Chicago model and the Detroit model. Likewise with Pittsburgh, who have carried some key core players with a good supplement of draft and free agent acquisitions to sustain them.

Many teams have, and very few have had the success the Kings have had. San Jose is an example of a team that has kept a talented core together for an unbelievable amount of time but have fallen short on perhaps free agent acquisitions, important trades, etc. The New York Rangers likewise have seen their window close on an aging core, and a lack of supplemental players. Anaheim, with the Perry-Getzlaf machine, have been unable to acquire players to put around them that leads them to the post Pronger-Selanne-Niedermayer promised land.

If there is one thing that exposes the flaws of any team building mentality, it is time.

Eventually, time wins out. Your core ages, that contracts that looked like value before are now detrimental. The picks you dealt away to get good players now look more impressive than those previously acquired. General managing a sports team, in that regard, cannot be a hindsight game. Did the Versteeg acquisition look good at the time? Did the Andrej Sekera trade look good when it happened? Yeah. Did anyone know that they would play out the way they did? Or that the Kings would look back on those moves and lament the lost product? No.

However, it can also not be too "All-in" of a game. Perhaps, if we can draw anything from the struggles of the Kings in the last two years, it is that changing the mentality a bit and going "All-in" when you were previously a more patient organization can really backfire if you do not come through with something tangible for the fanbase to hold onto. Yea, two cups, but what have you done for me lately? It is criticism we endure with sports, but it really is a "What have you done for me lately?" kind of industry.

With all that in mind, the Kings have showed some tremendous vision and opportunism in their window. They have also gotten very lucky in how some thing have worked out. They have, nevertheless, had more success than 95% of the other teams in the league have had in the past six to seven years. The pipeline, while thin, still has some meat to it that could help the Kings make it through this difficult period. They also have an AHL team that has enjoyed success with many Kings prospects heavily involved in those results. Tomorrow they could make a massive trade that changes the outlook of things. Maybe next season Tanner Pearson turn into a 30 goal scorer, or Brayden McNabb turns into a monster minute eating No. 3 defenseman. Who knows right? The NHL has so many moving parts, and has as much to do with luck as it does planning. It can be difficult to be too upset with an organization that has had success. The Kings are as Mike Futa put it at the draft this year "Taking their medicine" right now in many ways. Nevertheless, the team has had vision and fortitude in some their more down years, and they very well come out of this alright.

On paper the Kings 2016-17 team arguably looks stronger than that of the 2015-16 team that ended last season. They will need some improvements from younger players, and a few more established players, but it is not an organization that people should lack total confidence in. 20th in the league is probably a bit harsh given how the Kings have managed risk versus reward, along with building a sustainable core and supplementing them with good home-grown players on limited draft picks. Recent memory is perhaps the dominant force in such an evaluation. However the beauty of the NHL is that that could change in just one year's time. The Kings have taken their knocks, but it might not be unreasonable to have a confident and optimistic outlook on the team moving forward.

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