Wanna blog? Start your own hockey blog with My HockeyBuzz. Register for free today!
 

Breaking Down the Lucic Trade: Good or Bad?

July 5, 2015, 12:12 PM ET [71 Comments]
Jason Lewis
Los Angeles Kings Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT



With all the news surrounding the Kings recently in regards to non-hockey stuff, it is has been difficult to focus on actual hockey happenings.

Trials, border disputes, arrests, free agent frenzy, the draft, oh...and in the midst of that the Kings made a pretty significant trade that could have a huge impact on their top lines this coming year.

Way back on June 26th, before the first round took place that day, the Kings moved the 13th overall pick, Martin Jones, and burgeoning young prospect Colin Miller for 27-year old power winger Milan Lucic.

Everyone knows about Lucic and his game. We saw it in Boston's 2010-11 cup run, we saw it in the following year with his controversial hit on then Buffalo Sabres goalie Ryan Miller. We also heard and saw a little bit of it when Boston were eliminated at the hands of Montreal in 2014 and he had some not so nice exchanges in the handshake line.

Lucic, in essence, WAS the spirit of the "Big, bad, Bruins" that everyone seemed to hate back during their mini run of form from 2008-09 to 2013-14. The hulking 6'4" winger was right in the middle of that success, with several seasons of around 25 goals and 60 points. With the Kings making this trade, they are definitely hoping that the Milan Lucic they are getting is one of similar form to those success years. At his best, Lucic is a 25 goal-30 assist player who embodies the idea of hard to play against. He hits, he grinds, he agitates, he is big, and he can score. An ideal top 6 player in the world of Los Angeles.

As always though, there are a lot of other factors to consider when evaluating this pretty large move that the Kings have made. Is it good or bad for the roster and the future? Let us break it down a little bit.

The Good

Lucic is 27-years old. Hardly young by hockey standards, and starting to enter the age in which production starts to slide ever so slightly. You might be saying, "But hey, 27 is entering your prime!"

Actually, it is not. Check out this piece on SB Nation to see what we are talking about.

Be that as it may, Lucic is not old, and he is not at the most significant part of his decline. Despite a down year last year, the former Bruin will probably still be looking at a solid two-three years of decent production before he really starts going the way of your typical 30+ year old power forward not named Jarome Iginla.

It might have been a panic move by the Bruins to cut Lucic loose after this last season if they were looking at it purely from a place of cashing in at the right time. With one year left on his contract, the Bruins could have easily got someone to cash in for a bigger price at or before next year's deadline. They also may have been able to showcase a Milan Lucic who wasn't having one of his worst statistical seasons. In that regard, the Kings may have got a screaming deal on the former Vancouver Giant.



There are many things you can point to in an effort to explain Lucic's poor production last season.

On the surface, his individual possession numbers, like shots, fenwick, and corsi over 60, were all relatively consistent at 5v5 with what we have seen over the last few years. It is not quite his 2010-11 stuff, but there are no massive dips or declining trends.



graphs provided by Stats.hockeyanalysis.com


So why the dip in production?

There is a simple explanation to it really: David Krejci.

Lucic has had one major and consistent factor in his game since 2010-11, and that is being saddled with the talented centerman David Krejci. Unfortunately for Milan, last year Krejci dealt with a groin injury early on, and a knee injury that essentially obliterated his second half of the year. All in all, Krejci was only able to play 47 games this season.

That was a huge, huge, blow to Lucic. Since 2010-11, he has played 3008 of his 4013 even strength minutes alongside Krecji. Over that time the duo held a nice 54% corsi for, and a goals for percentage around 58.6. Excellent numbers.

With his regular Czech centerman out of the lineup more often than not, Lucic had no consistent centerman or winger for that matter. As we have stated before on this very blog, duos matter more than lines. The Krejci-Lucic duo was fantastic, and when the latter was paired up with Ryan Spooner, Seth Griffith, and/or David Pastrnak in an effort to get the ship righted, the results were not so strong.



You can quite clearly see how the injury to Krejci impacted the overall play of Lucic. To think that Lucic had a bad season by his own devices is a little bit misguided.

That is a positive for the Kings, because it does not suggest a decline for Lucic. It suggests an uncomfortable season, one that he could bounce back from. Especially when you factor in Lucic's style and how it will directly impact the Kings.

There is talk that Lucic will be tried on the top line with Anze Kopitar and Marian Gaborik. Gaborik has been playing on the left side, his unnatural wing side. Lucic, a left wing, can shift into that spot and allow Gaborik to move back over. A top line of Lucic-Kopitar-Gaborik should look appetizing as is, but here is a little bit more to tease the palate. Check out the hextally on Lucic from 2010-14 and where he generally scores from.



This second chart shows the amount of tipped in goals that Lucic has been a part of from the years 2010-14.



Comparatively we talk about Dustin Brown, who was initially thought of as the option for the top line wing spot prior to the Lucic trade. Brown is ladened with the criticism of being too much a possessor and attempted dictator of play versus being a havoc creating distraction that benefits from his teammates. In the shot rates you can see exactly how that plays out.

2010-2014 Dustin Brown On-Ice Team Shot rates for



2010-2014 Milan Lucic On-Ice Team Shot rates for



In this instance, you can see clearly where Lucic is going to be, in theory, an excellent addition alongside Kopitar and Gaborik. A position that was going to more than likely fall to Brown, a player whose style has not meshed well with Kopitar or Gaborik in the past. Lucic, unlike Brown, defers to his centerman. He did it with Krejci and he will most definitely do it with Kopitar. With an understanding of his role on the line, the formula looks like it could be a successful one. It is a simple formula in reality: Kopitar is the dictator, Lucic is the havoc creator, Gaborik is the beneficiary or clean up man. If this works out exactly as planned (Murphy's Law though...) expect Gaborik to have one of his best seasons to date. Lucic and Kopitar, in turn, will benefit. Easy on paper, hard to execute nonetheless. The idea, however, is there and looks good.

Just for the sake of argument, here is the hextally of the last successful top line player that played alongside Kopitar and Gaborik.



In the hockey theory and analytic aspect of this trade, it looks like a very good fit that could lead to some successful offensive output from the Kings top line. He also plays a style of hockey that seems to mesh well with the current Kings ideal of wearing players down physically. With stunted goal production and needed depth at wing, this trade looks to be a homerun.

The Bad

With every push there is a pull, with every give there is a take, and with every good there is also bad.

With the major offensive hockey aspects of this looking great, there are some detractors that really have to make you scratch your head.

The almost unavoidable question mark and criticism of this trade is the timing.

Lucic has just one solitary year left on his current contract. This contract he is currently on carries a cap hit of $6M AAV. The Kings were able to get Boston to retain almost half of that in an effort to fit Lucic under the cap this season. A noble effort by Lombardi.

Nevertheless, the inherent problem lies in the future. What happens after this season?

Worst case scenario, Lucic is terrible, the Kings get nothing out of the trade and decide to let him walk next year. It will essentially be a one year rental player that cost the Kings a 1st round pick in an exceptionally deep draft and two very good young hockey players. With the prospect cupboard already a touch bare, need we remind readers that the Kings do not have a 1st round pick in the 2016 draft either due to the Andrej Sekera trade rental.

Best case scenario, Milan Lucic is a man possessed, gets back to scoring 60+ points, and has an overall phenomenal year. Great, what then? He still has just one year left on his contract. As stated earlier, there really has not been any downturn yet in the overall performance of Lucic in the last 4 years. If he rakes this year does anyone, including Lucic's agent, really believe he will be taking a pay cut? He will be 28, coming off a productive season, and be looking at getting at least one more healthy contract with a term that takes him into his early to mid 30s. You have to ask yourself if the Kings are really capable of providing that given the current circumstances.

The gargantuan elephant in the room when you consider the last paragraph is the Anze Kopitar re-signing. Kopitar is making a cushy $6.8M AAV for the Kings currently. Considering he is one of the best two way centers in the game and is still just 27, you are probably looking at something short of Jonathan Toews money ($10.5M AAV). The Kings will also have Tyler Toffoli on a re-up the following season, and Tanner Pearson and Brayden McNabb on a re-up the same year as Kopitar. A number of other minor players will also be looking for contracts like Dwight King and Trevor Lewis. Safe to say, with a lot of money committed long term to Gaborik, Brown, Carter, Quick, and Doughty, the Kings are going to be exceptionally tight. If Lucic actualizes the theorized Lucic, can the Kings even afford him in the long term? Or does he just become a one-year rental? Tough to say. On the outset though this does not look like an easy financial move to accept. In either best or worst case scenarios, the Kings are going to be faced with some very difficult decisions.

On a more classical level of hockey analysis, there are also some criticisms to be placed upon Lucic.

First off, he is pretty rough defensively. He has had fairly cozy zone starts for the better part of his career, not once dipping into the negative ZSO relative numbers at 5v5. Generally, he has hovered around the 5-7% positive range. With that in mind he and his line generally give up a ton of chances against as well. In fact, when you look at someone like Kopitar and Lucic, the scoring chance differential against over 60 is almost a full 5 to 6 points higher (21 over 60 vs. 26 over 60) in favor of Kopitar. That is with Kopitar getting a heavy dose of defensive zone starts against top players.

Here is Lucic's defensive impact HERO chart



It is not the worst thing in the world, but you can see that defensively he has played in a situation which opts for outscoring rather than limiting scoring. That is a theory contrary to the LA Kings in a while. Another good quick indicator of that thanks to Ownthepuck.




Under a more defensively stringent system, with much harder zone starts and match ups, can Lucic match his previous 25-30 production? It is entirely possible to imagine a world where Sutter moves Lucic down into a third line role because he cannot seem to handle the load that the top line bares on a regular basis. Then the move looks suspect again, as it is a first rounder and two solid young players for a third liner. That is something the Kings have too much of as is currently. Also, because of his questionable defensive play, he simply is not a penalty kill forward. Never has been and probably never will be. Lucic's special teams impact is going to be limited primarily to the powerplay. Again, knowing Sutter though, is he going to simply brush aside the fact that he does not kill penalties? Or try to stick a square peg into a round hole? Time will tell. For fans, all it is going to take is for Lucic to get in the face of Corey Perry or the Sedins just once for them to be won over. By all accounts he is a good teammate, a likeable guy, and a very difficult and annoying player to contend with.

All things considered, it is a pretty strong trade for the Kings from a hockey perspective. However, in the realm of salary cap and front office mayhem, it may turn out to be an absolute howler down the line. It is unclear how the Kings will be able to stick with Lucic outside of a one-year rental type player, and that has to be concerning for the future. This becomes even more murky and uncertain with situations and money tied up into current happenings with Richards and Voynov. Even the Kings don't know how much money they will have to spend in the future. What is it worth for another cup shot though? Do they have the horses now for that with the Lucic trade? You could argue they are still a second pair defenseman short of that.

Bottom line, this is a good, solid move, with potentially devastating effects later on. It makes sense on the ice, but off the ice and in the books it remains to be seen.

The Lucic Trade
Love it
Hate it
I DON'T KNOW HOW TO FEEL ANYMORE!
Poll Maker



Follow me on twitter for news and notes about the Kings and the NHL




Also be sure to like HockeyBuzz on facebook!

++++I AM CURRENTLY LOOKING FOR ADVERTISERS! If you, or anyone you know would be interested in placing an ad on the blog here at HockeyBuzz then send me a PM!+++++
Join the Discussion: » 71 Comments » Post New Comment
More from Jason Lewis
» Kings recall/send down Scuderi after Brayden McNabb injury (UPDATE)
» From Denmark to the Ontario Reign, Patrick Bjorkstrand's roots stay strong
» Home opening Ontario Reign weekend recap
» Zatkoff injured, Jack Campbell up, what now?
» Kings finally getting on the right track