He is polarizing to the Kings faithful.
The fancy stat crowd loves him, the eye test crowd tend to be a little more bearish, and then there are a lot of people in between who look at the $4 million a year he makes and asks "Why?"
For years he has been the whipping boy of many an L.A. Kings fan. When he has had good seasons it is only due to him being paired with Drew Doughty. For every turnover he makes you see the rabble on twitter cry out "#Muzzkill" and question the overall ability of the 26-year old. Nevertheless, the Kings rewarded Muzzin with a 5-year, 20$ Million dollar deal two years ago that continues to look like one of the best contracts on the team.
Much to the dismay of the bearish crowd, Muzzin is off to a great campaign yet again. Only this year he is doing it separate of Drew Doughty, thus ending a lot of the coattail criticism that came along with it. There are still a lot out there who do not believe though.
First, the traditional stuff.
Muzzin is second on the team amongst defensemen in scoring with seven points in 14 games. That would be on pace for another healthy 40-point season from the former Pittsburgh Penguin draft product. While the Kings do not normally get a whole lot of production from the back end, the 40 points that Muzzin has provided both last year and potentially this year are crucial in an era that is going to see them without Slava Voynov. Voynov was a player who originally the Kings saw as a nice offensive compliment to Drew Doughty. With that out of the question, Muzzin continues to be a capable No. 2 provider. He continues to eat up around 22 minutes and change for Darryl Sutter, and has also ventured into the 23 and 24 minute range in the first 14 games this year.
Now let's get to the always arguable analytical stance on Muzzin.
Back when he was a burgeoning talent in the eyes of many advanced stats proponents, ice time seemed to be his only downfall. Muzzin simply did not play enough. He also played with Drew Doughty.
This year he is separate of the Kings world class puck mover and...surprise surprise he is still really really good. Take a look for yourself:
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(Stats provided by Stats.hockeyanalysis.com and War-on-ice.com)
To quickly summarize: Yes, that's right, Muzzin has the best shots for %, second best corsi for %, the best corsi for per 60, and is doing so while getting the second most difficult zone starts on the team amongst the regular defensemen.
Whew.
And again, to emphasize, he is doing it without Doughty!
Individually Muzzin is having a better year compared to last year even.
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The argument for his increase from those who still are not believers is probably that "Well, he is getting easier match-ups now that he is without Doughty and not getting top lines." True, and you could probably accommodate some of these increases to that, but how do you explain his great year last year then when he WAS getting those matchups?
The only thing in which Muzzin and his regular partner Alec Martinez have struggled with is goals for %. However, a lower PDO for Muzzin probably has something to do with that. The duo have been getting around a .902 save percentage while on the ice, which would certainly help drive up a goals against.
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All of this makes little difference to those that swear by the eye test and do not believe in analytics. There is nothing wrong with that. If you want to go straight from the eye, embrace it! However, let us recognize some things WITH the eye test that also show up in the analytics department. There has to be a reason for his strong possession metrics right? It is not some arcane statistic that is somehow geared to make bad players look good.
There are two very simple reasons that Muzzin is a great player by both eye test standards and analytical standards.
Those two things are: Breakouts and Entry/Exit denials.
These are small details over the course of a 60 minute game that can often escape an eye test. A glaring turnover obviously does not, but the number of key zone entry or exit denials along with crisp breakout passes that transition to offense, can. Muzzin plays a pretty high risk game in this regard. He makes risky breakout passes, pinches at seemingly impossible times, but has time and time again got away with it. This is what makes him such an intriguing player. He takes calculated risks and gets away with them. That is why whatever partner he seems to be with benefits in possession metrics. His breakout passes generally lead to good offensive transitions, and his choices to step up and deny exit or step up and deny entry often limit opposing chances.
Let's get to some good examples in motion.
Muzzin breakout passes can usually be of the pretty standard variety. However, he also tends to be a very heads up player in transitioning to offense with passes that would have been outlawed in the two-line pass era. Here is a minor example.
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It is a downright risky play to go across center on this play, but he picks the absolute right time to do it. This kind of play springs the Kings into offense, leading to scoring chances, corsi events, and shots on goal. All the things you want in both an analytics regard and an eye test regard.
Here is a great one that would have been outlawed in the two-line pass era. Head up, stick to stick, and the Kings are able to chip in off of it and start an offensive zone cycle/sequence with the third line.
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While the last two are of the semi-risky variety, here is one of the high-risk variety that nearly puts Kopitar in on a breakaway.
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These are plays that most defensemen across the league would not attempt in order to "Play it safe."
This kind of swashbuckling breakout is a nice departure for a Kings team that can sometimes lack creativity outside of their standard scheme. You see plays like this from guys like Pietrangelo, Karlsson, Subban, Ekblad etc. Guys with confidence.
Because Muzzin is NOT on the same level as those players, he can get burned on his risky play at times. Still, it does not mean he should not attempt it.
The other facet of Muzzin's game which is often overlooked is his strong blue line monitoring.
No. 6 loves to step up. He does so at the offensive blue line, the defensive blue line, and at the red line. Again, this is a risky play because if he gets beat on the pinch it leaves his team out to dry. Luckily the King forwards work hard at back checking in an effort to lessen the blow of this. When he comes through though, it often denies offensive teams zone time, and/or denies the defensive team from clearing their zone and alleviating pressure.
Examples:
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Muzzin stepping up in the neutral zone and putting a good stick on Scottie Upshall breaks up what could have been a 3v3 break for the Blues. It allows his backchecking forwards to pick up Upshall, thus neutralizing a complete breakout. Simple and effective. No chances come for the Blues on this rush.
Here is another example:
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Again, Muzzin chooses his time wisely and steps up on the Blue Jackets trying to exit the zone. He holds them up long enough that the backchecking forwards can mop up the puck and the Kings can regain possession.
Now for some more crucial and satisfying stuff:
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Muzzin pinches down scarily low on a Blackhawks ring around to deny a clean zone exit for the Hawks. He succeeds in this regard and Clifford picks up the puck.
What happens next is a perfect example of what that little play can do:
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Muzzin's timely pinch to break up a zone exit inevitably generates a goal. It was that simple. He denied the Hawks player from getting out of the zone, thus giving his team another chance to generate corsi events, shots, and goals. The crucial thing to remember in all of this is when he does this sort of tantalizing eye test stuff, it also limits the amount of time his OWN team spends in their own zone. Ergo, better analytics. Congratulations, eye test and analytics are one!
Perhaps with extra attention given to these sort of small, yet pivotal plays, the two split parties on Jake Muzzin can embrace what he brings to the table as a quality player. He plays a risky game that can sometimes get him in hot water, but for every one of those plays he makes over the course of a game there are nine or ten worthwhile plays that Muzzin performs that may or may not have saved the Kings in an alternate reality where he did not deny entry or exits.
The Muzzin butterfly effect? Schrodinger's Muzzin?
Spooky.
Muzzin has been a large part of the Kings defensive revival over the past couple of years, and he fits very nicely into their top 4 and as their No. 2 defensemen behind Doughty. Not bad for a former 5th round pick (2007) who was signed as a free agent (2010) right?
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