So the Ottawa Senators have a monster decision to make in the next year or so. One that will alter the course of the franchise one way or another, and a decision that isn't entirely in their own hands.
Erik Karlsson is due for a new contract, and it has been making headlines of late because of a few factors, not the least of which is that both Karlsson and Drew Doughty, who is also scheduled to become a UFA in July 2019, have the same representation and as such will always know what is going on with the other one and they can play teams against each other in order to get the best deals for their clients.
Combine that with the public statement that Karlsson made that
“When I go to market, I’m going to get what I’m worth, and it’s going to be no less, no matter where I’m going,”- The Ottawa Sun
While he backed off a little bit and within a couple of days said that Ottawa is where he wants to be, the comments don't inspire a great deal of confidence.
When Connor McDavid signed his monster extension this summer that will kick in for next year (8 years, $100M), one of the notables affected was said to be Karlsson, and how much (arguably) the third best player in the game would be able to cash in for.
You do have to take into account the fact that they are two different players at different points in their career, McDavid signing a contract that takes him from age 21-29, and the Oilers bought what should be the prime years of a generational talent. While that contract in my mind guarantees a work stoppage in a couple of years, it is not beyond imagination.
Back to Karlsson, a tremendous player but one that will be 29 years old when his new contract kicks in, which in this day in age is the latter part of a player's prime. Karlsson is a player who is undersized, relies on speed and mobility and has had two major foot injuries in the past 5 years.
The one option that is not an option at all is to let him walk for nothing at the end of next season. And allowing him to get into his final year without an extension is a close second in the worst-case scenario department.
So that leaves signing him to an extension or trading him next summer, or even earlier like the trade deadline this year. Of course, sentimentally you want to sign him, and it not being your money, do it at whatever price is necessary. But if it was your money, can you justify paying him an 8-year, $80M contract for what will likely be a declining asset after less than half of that time?
Budget or no budget, even if the cap goes up to the $78-82M it is projected to go to for next year, the Senators have 3 big name players to sign in Karlsson, Mark Stone and Matt Duchene over the next 18 months. For all the talk of Eugene Melnyk being "cheap", he has a top 12 payroll now that Duchene has replaced Kyle Turris as the club's #1 centre. You can debate on how smart the money has been spent, but he is spending it The problem is they are not getting value for money out of Bobby Ryan, and to a lesser extent Dion Phaneuf. both contracts that are difficult buyouts because of annual signing bonuses, savings and cost replacements.
Putting my GM hat on, I think you have to sit down with his agents as soon as possible and offer $60M for 6 years. Eight to ten million a year would be a mistake but one you can live with especially if the contract expires at age 35ish. The league is going to be littered with back half contracts that were large at the start but as the player ages it looks worse and worse.
Anything over $10M per season, if that is what he indicates he is looking for, would make me have to explore other opportunities. If he wants the max 8 years, I don't think you go higher than $8M per.
Trading Karlsson with a year left on his contract would bring about a decent return and they can rebuild around the core of prospects they have, and a team like Tampa, who is a legitimate contender, with cap space and a bounty of young prospects (half of last year's World Junior's seemed to be Lightning prospects), would drool over adding Karlsson to a blue line that already includes Victor Hedman and young Mikhail Sergachev for the stretch run this season and beyond.
Lets face it, with the state of the team at the moment, the Senators don't look destined to make another deep run this year, and it is one of the oldest teams in the league. It might seem like a cold decision, sacrilege, and given this franchise's past history with star players it might be par for the course, but perhaps dealing him in his prime and getting a solid return might be the best thing for the player and the franchise in the long term.
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