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Should people be taking the Senators more seriously?

March 13, 2017, 11:56 AM ET [43 Comments]
Jared Crozier
Ottawa Senators Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
For much of this season, the Ottawa Senators have been all about the "yeah, buts". At the beginning, they got off to a good start, "but" the schedule was friendly to them and they had a pretty soft start.

They were winning, but it wasn't overly convincing and they were having trouble scoring goals. They were basically a complete opposite of what they had been previously - a free-wheeling team that had trouble preventing goals and needed to score their way out of trouble which was often easier said than done, and why they missed the playoffs.

"But", they kept hanging around, never really falling out of the playoff race, and even when the schedule got tougher, so did they. Sure, there were some tough times (between Christmas and mid-January springs to mind, but that also came at a point where there was no consistency to when they were on the ice, with extended breaks and the earliest bye-week of any team that came hot on the heels of the Christmas break.

For most of the season, their goals differential was almost even, making people think they were an average team. Yes, there were some blowouts in there, but for the most part the Senators played close games.

If anything, they are guilty of playing poorly against bad teams.


Against good teams, they have been remarkably strong. Their record against the 8 other playoff hopefuls (down to the New York Islanders who currently sit a point out of the playoffs) in the Eastern Conference, the Senators have a combined 14-5-1 record.

No team has a better record against the Metropolitan Division than the Senators'13-5-2, and that is arguably the best division in hockey right now. You could say that the Senators have been the beneficiaries of playing in a weaker division, and that may be true. "But" their record against the bottom 4 teams in the division (TB, FLA, DET and BUF) is 4-9-1, so you can't say they have been feasting off the bottom feeders and that their points are inflated because of that fact. In fact it is quite the opposite.

The Senators sit two points behind the Canadiens with 2 games in hand and 3 games in 8 days starting with a back to back Saturday/Sunday. Regardless of the outcome of those games, and it would be tough to think either team would sweep the set, the Senators have to like their situation. Although not quite home and cooled yet, their current 6 game winning streak has them not really worrying about the chase pack, and they can focus on fine-tuning their game and getting some of their best forwards healthy (Kyle Turris, Mark Stone and Bobby Ryan).

They also have one of the better goaltending tandems in the league with a fresh Craig Anderson, who has been in full "Beast Mode" since returning from his family leave, and a more than capable backup in Mike Condon.

And then there is "The System". Guy Boucher has brought it in , installed it and the players have drank the kool-aid. Just over the past month or so it has become apparent that the talk at the beginning of the season was more than just talk, that there was indeed a plan. They may not match up man to man with the likes of the Capitals and Penguins, but they are even with the Pens this season, and although they are 1-2 against Washington, they have outscored the Caps 4-3 in their three games, and they came at a time when Washington was rolling through everyone else in the league and the only team that played them close was the Senators. Ottawa held them to three goals in three games in a month (Dec 29th - Jan 31st) where they didn't score less than 4 against any other opponent, win or lose. Erik Karlsson took some time adjusting to his role in the scheme, but over the past month or so he might just be the best player in the league, and certainly the best defenseman, although Brent Burns' spectacular season will likely deny Karlsson a third Norris.

It might not be the sexiest way to play, but "The System" plays to the strength of the players in it, and makes up for most negative matchups they may encounter. The club didn't make the big splash that many were hoping for at the trade deadline, but they added solid pieces that have been better than (at least I) expected and fit in nicely.

Just for fun I went back to the beginning of the season and looked at what I predicted the Atlantic would look like. Boy, was I wrong. I had Ottawa finishing fifth, with Tampa, Florida, Montreal and Detroit all ahead of them.

I am not saying they quite qualify as a legitimate Stanley Cup threat as of now, or even that they will be a lock to go to the second round. "But" once you get a seat at the table anything can happen. And I don't think any team can look at the standings and say that the Senators are a team that they would want to play in the first round if they have hopes of advancing. Ottawa won't be an easy out, and it may happen, but I think it is safe to say the team that does beat them will have earned it.

"But", any team that doesn't take them seriously, as seems to be the case with a lot of outside fans and media alike, could be in for a big shock.
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