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Round 2 Senators - Rangers series preview

April 26, 2017, 10:36 AM ET [51 Comments]
Jared Crozier
Ottawa Senators Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
The Ottawa Senators and New York Rangers will begin their second ever post-season meeting Thursday night, a follow up to the "it seems like yesterday but was actully 5 years ago" 7 game Rangers victory in 2012.

The Rosters have changed greatly since that series, with only 4 Senators on the roster who played in that series - Craig Anderson, Kyle Turris, Erik Karlsson and a fresh out of junior Mark Stone who made his NHL debut in game 5, had an assist and then was scratched for some reason for the remaining two games, but that is in the past and I am in no way still bitter over that Paul MacLean decision. The Rangers still have 7 players that suited up for them in that series - Henrik Lundqvist, Dan Girardi, Ryan McDonagh, Marc Staal, Derek Stepan and Chris Kreider.

The Rangers finished fourth in the impossibly strong Metropolitan Division, ending up with 102 points and for their effort captured the first Wild Card spot. They defeated the Montreal Canadiens in 6 games, setting up this second round battle with the 98 point Senators, who also dispatched their first round opponent, the Boston Bruins in 6 games.

Here is how the series breaks down:

Projected Lineups:

NEW YORK

Chris Kreider - Mika Zibanejad - Pavel Buchnevich
Jimmy Vesey - Derek Stepan - Rick Nash
J. T. Miller - Kevin Hayes - Mats Zuccarello
Michael Grabner - Oscar Lindberg - Jesper Fast

Ryan McDonagh - Dan Girardi
Brady Skjei - Brendan Smith
Marc Staal - Nick Holden

Henrik Lundvist/Antti Raanta

OTTAWA

Clarke MacArthur - Derick Brassard - Bobby Ryan
Mike Hoffman - Jean-Gabriel Pageau - Mark Stone
Ryan Dzingel - Kyle Turris - Alexandre Burrows
Viktor Stalberg - Zack Smith - Tommy Wingels

Marc Methot - Erik Karlsson
Dion Phaneuf- Cody Ceci
Mark Borowiecki/Ben Harpur - Chris Wideman/Freddie Claesson

Craig Anderson/Mike Condon



OFFENSE

The Rangers had the fourth best offense in the NHL in the regular season, with 3.09 Goals/Game, while Ottawa languished in 22nd with just 2.51. The Rangers did that while averaging just 29.7 shots/game (22nd) and had one of the worst possession stats of all the playoff teams (-303 net shot attempts, ranking 27th). Ottawa managed an even 30 shots/game, and weren't a whole lot better in terms of possession, with -212 net shot attempts, 23rd in the league).

Although the playoffs don't tell the whole story, especially after just 1 round considering all games are against 1 opponent, but the Senators scored 2.5 goals per game on 31.2 shots, while the Rangers were down significantly from their regular season production to 2.33 goals per game with 30.2 shots per game (call it the Carey Price factor).

In the regular season, neither team had a 30 goal scorer, Chris Kreider (28) and Kyle Turris (27) led their respective clubs. The Rangers had 10 players reach double digits in goals, while the Senators had 9. No Ranger reached the 60 point plateau (Mats Zuccarello led the team with 59), while the Senators had 2 players (Erik Karlsson and Mike Hoffman) pass 60 points. New York had 11 players with 30 points or more, while Ottawa had 9.

In the playoffs, Derick Brassard leads the Senators with 8 points, while Mika Zibanejad is tops on the Rangers with 4. Fourteen different Rangers have contributed points (8 different goal scorers with Zucarello leading the way with 3) while only 14 Senators have notched at least a point (9 different goal scorers, led by 4 from Bobby Ryan).

The Rangers are a little deeper and they seem to play a more consistent deployment of their lines and have set roles. Ottawa plays a full team system where lines tend to change shift to shift let alone game to game, so the lineups listed above need to be taken with a grain of salt, and everyone must know what their job is at any given time.

The Rangers have talent on all four lines, and with a guy like Grabner playing on the fourth line, at any point they can jump up and bite you. They are probably deeper and more balanced, with more players that can create on their own. Ottawa relies a lot on A handful of players to provide most of the offense, Karlsson Turris, Ryan, Stone, Hoffman and Brassard. Brassard and Ryan have answered the bell in the playoffs after disappointing regular season Also, Clarke MacArthur had a solid series and scored a couple of big goals in round 1, but after missing almost two full years can he keep up to the grind that is the playoffs or will he wear down quicker? If he can, the Senators are much deeper and closer to the Rangers level, but if he can't then that leaves a hole.

There will be a lot made of the Zibanejad - Brassard trade, and that should be downplayed (but it won't be). Brassard has been as advertised in the playoffs, and Zibanejad has been good for the Rangers. Who won or lost the trade is a moot point for now, all that matters is which side wins.

EDGE: The Rangers scored 40 more goals than the Senators in the regular season, so until proven otherwise, the Senators don't want to run and gun with them.

DEFENSE

The Rangers are pretty solid 1 through 6, and have a solid 7 in Kevin Klein. They aren't the most mobile group as a whole and the Senators can take advantage of that with a strong forecheck. I say "can" because that was the suggestion going into round 1 and the Senators didn't make the undermanned Bruins blue line pay enough of a price until the final couple of games when they finally made a concerted effort to be more physical more often.

Depending on what 6 play for Ottawa, they rely heavily on Karlsson, who will play almost half of any game with a variety of partners. In game 6 they had what I would call their most solid group, with Claesson and Harpur on the third pair. Each unit has a skilled puck mover and a banger, which gives good balance. The top 4 will get a vast majority of the ice time and the key might be Cody Ceci. Ceci has taken a lot of heat for his play, but after a shaky start in the playoffs, he had a pretty solid game 5 and 6, playing a little more stable in his own end.

EDGE: McDonagh is a very good defenseman, but there is no answer for Karlsson, Slight edge to the Senators (if they play the right 6)


GOALTENDING

Henrik Lundqvist is one of the best goalies ever, and had an up and down season. He has a record of 15-18-7 with a GAA of 2.11 and SP of .930 in his career against Ottawa, one of only 2 eastern conference teams he has a losing record against (in the regular season). However, the other one is the Montreal Canadiens (14-17-3) and we know how much that affected him in round 1.

Anderson has a career record of 10-5-3 with a GAA of 2.64 and .918 SP against the Rangers, a better record but inferior numbers to Lundqvist. Anderson's issue is consistency, even within games, and he has a propensity to allow bad goals at a higher rate than most goalies, but then will shut the door and has the ability to put those iffy ones behind him.

If Anderson is on top of his game, this is a pretty even matchup and Anderson's best might even be slightly better than Lundqvist's. The question for me is, can he get there and stay there for longer than he did against Boston.

Both teams have quality backups and neither side would lose much if they had to go to Mike Condon or Antti Raanta.

EDGE:

I will call this one pretty EVEN


SPECIAL TEAMS

Ottawa's special teams were both sub-par in the regular season, with the 22nd ranked penalty kill and 23rd ranked power play. New York was middle of the pack with the 11th best power play and the 19th best penalty kill.

In the playoffs, the Rangers couldn't solve the Habs penalty kill, and they were just 6.7% (1 for 15) with the man advantage. Ottawa's power play is streaky to say the least, following up long stretches of ineptitude (3 straight power plays with 0 shots on goal in the first period of Game 6), but it has contributed some timely goals and finished round 1 at 21.7% against the league's #1 penalty kill unit in Boston, while New York struggled against the 14th best penalty kill in Montreal.


Each team allowed 3 power play goals against in the first round, the Rangers were shorthanded 20 times while the Senators just 16.


EDGE: Ottawa


HEAD to HEAD

Ottawa won 2 of the three games this season, outscoring the Rangers 8-5 in the process. Ottawa outshot the Rangers 89-77 and had a +22 edge in shot attempts.


3 KEYS FOR THE SERIES

1. Rangers PP - They got away with beating the Habs without much momentum from their power play but if it continues at the same level, the Rangers might be in trouble.

2. Forecheck Initiation - Both teams will be looking to establish a forecheck and make the opposing defenders pay the price. Whoever can do that more effectively and more consistently will get the upper hand.

3. Hold the lead - When they get one, the Senators had trouble keeping their foot on the gas, and as a result they coughed up a number of leads ranging from 1 to 3 goals. They managed to win a couple after giving up leads, but the Rangers are a tighter group and you don't want to walk that same tightrope against them.

PREDICTION

This is another tight one and it could go either way, as any good playoff series should be. Ottawa has home ice advantage, but the Rangers were the best road team in the league, 3 more road wins than any other team in the NHL. Ottawa was 1-2 at home and 3-0 on the road in round 1.

New York was 23-16-3 against the other 15 playoff teams, while Ottawa was 22-14-5, so there isn't much to choose there.

Everything is so tight, and you can't really carry over what happened in round 1 to predict what will happen in round 2.

What I know is, Erik Karlsson seems to be on a personal mission, and now that he has deemed himself 100% after playing with 2 hairline fractures in his heel for the better part of round 1, who knows what level he can get to. Nobody can reach his level in terms on impact on the game, and when he wills something, there is almost no stopping him, and that will be the difference.

I have flip-flopped back and forth, even in the last few hours while writing this, but I will go with Senators in 7.
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