A few days ago, I did a breakdown of what the Senators roster looked like based on what roles players were capable of. I will admit, some of it was more for creating discussion/debate (other than my initial omission of Mika Zibanejad) and provoking thought than where I would actually slot the player.
A couple of things struck me in reading the comments - There is certainly a predictability and perceptions that simply don't change. I had only Kyle Turris and Mark Stone slotted as first line players. Comments in support of both Mike Hoffman and Bobby Ryan came up that they are sure-fire first liners, while some questioned my appointment of Turris to the role.
To each their own, and while all have holes in their respective games, those are reasonable debates. I will focus today on Turris and the Senators never-ending quest for the elusive elite center.
I made the assertion last season, before the ankle injury sustained on December 8th or so, that Kyle Turris had developed into a legitimate #1 center. He had 22 points in 25 games at that point, and then his season (and I still profess that of the Senators) was derailed by Casey Cizikas rolling up Turris' leg. Turris played through it for a couple of months but he was certainly not the same player he was through the first 2 months of the season before he was finally shut down.
Credit him for guts but probably not the smartest thing that he or the Senators have done. But that is all old news, asked and answered.
Now the problem at hand is for the Senators (or any team for that matter), to truly compete for a Stanley Cup, you need an elite center, if not 2.
Looking back, scrolling through the Stanley Cup Champions year by year, you have to go back to the 2002-03 Devils to find a team that raised the Cup without having a true elite centre. Their middle was essentially Scott Gomez, a 36 year old Joe Nieuwendyk, John Madden and Mike Rupp.
Since then, this has happened
Every team has had a dominant #1C, and in many cases that 1C has been backed up by another player who could be considered another first line centre as well.
Now to the problem at hand for the Sens...the reason that the 1C is so important is that there are so few to go around.
Points matter first and foremost, so I took a look at the list of centres who have scored 180 points or more over the last 3 seasons, for an average of 60 points per year. There were only 15 names on that list, and 3 teams had 2 players on it - Pittsburgh, San Jose and Dallas.
SOURCE: hockey-reference.com
So that means that there are only 12 teams that have elite centres. Some names missing from that list that you might expect - the McDavids, Eichels, Kuznetsovs, Monahans, etc are just coming into their own and could soon be on the list as they mature and develop. An asterisk for Steven Stamkos, who isn't on this list because he fell just short because of injury but as you will see in a second he certainly qualifies as elite based on points per game. I will also include Connor McDavid even though his sample size is small but the talent is plain to see, making the elite list 17 deep.
Next, I took the bar down, from 180 points to 150 points to see what the size of that group entailed. I got 36 results, and sorted by points per game this time around, just to see what difference that made to factor in for injuries etc.
source: hockey-reference.com
Not all of these players are full-time centres (for example Pavelski and Thornton play together a lot, Hudler doesn't play much center as far as I recall).
So while he is certainly not elite, Turris is a #1 but would be a very good #2 behind a truly elite #1.
So, how can the Senators rectify this situation?
1. Sign one as a free agent - These players so rarely get to the market, that is really a pipe dream. From the elite list, not one has reached the free agent market in their career, with Stamkos being the closest.
2. Trade for one - These player also hardly ever get traded, with only 2 of the elite group of 17 being moved in the last 3 years, namely Ryan Johansen and ironically Jason Spezza. Thirteen of the 17 are still with the team drafted them, with only Boston seeing fit to move an elite centre on (dealing Thornton and then Seguin) in addition to the aforementioned Johansen (Columbis to Nashville) and Spezza (Ottawa to Dallas).
Unless they can pry a guy like Malkin out of Pittsburgh this isn't likely an option, and even that scenario is pretty far-fetched at this point in time.
3. Build from within - The Senators have some nice prospects in Colin White and Logan Brown, but neither can be considered at this point to wind up in the "elite" category, so the waiting game continues.
Here is how the draft position of the current 16 Elite Centres panned out:
1st - 5 (Crosby, Tavares, Stamkos, Thornton, McDavid)
2nd - 2 (Malkin, Seguin, Spezza)
3rd - 2 ( Toews, Duchene)
4th - 2 (Backstrom, Johansen)
11th - 1 (Kopitar)
19th - 1 (Getzlaf)
22nd - 1 (Giroux)
45th - 1 (Bergeron)
EDIT: 7th round 205th overall (not 7th overall as I had previously stated) - 1 (Pavelski)
So while hitting rock bottom and drafting early certainly helps expedite the process if the drafting is done properly, not snagging those later gems certainly hurts, especially if the guy you pass over is Anze Kopitar and the player your team takes 3 spots before him is Brian Lee. And when you have them, you have to do your best to keep them (Spezza).
It is a tough table to get a seat at, and when you finally do, you can't afford to fold your cards and leave like the Senators did with Spezza. Not that it was entirely on them, and I am not sure it was ever really in their control, but sometimes you have to cater to those players to keep them happy.
And while Turris would be a #1 on many teams, he isn't the guy that is going to carry a team where it ultimately wants to go, and is indeed more suited as a #2 on a team that has any type of aspirations to play in May. But there isn't much else the Senators can do, unless they can turn back time and bring in Martin Brodeur, Scott Stevens and Scott Niedermayer circa 2002.
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