Wanna blog? Start your own hockey blog with My HockeyBuzz. Register for free today!
 

On Ceci/RNH, Hoffman/Fowler Rumours and Hoffman vs Palmeiri Comparables

July 9, 2016, 11:34 AM ET [79 Comments]
Jared Crozier
Ottawa Senators Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
OK, so a couple of rumours have circulated in the past week, both involving forwards for defensemen.

First, Mike Hoffman for Cam Fowler in the middle of the week and then yesterday a Cody Ceci to Edmonton for a forward, probably Ryan Nugent-Hopkins surfaced. I don't know how serious these rumors are, or if they are straight up 1 for 1, but lets assume they are for the sake of argument, to see if either one works to the Senators' advantage, or at least even.

Hoffman for Fowler by itself makes zero sense, because trading away your best scorer for a defenseman comparable to what you already have would be counter-productive. If you add Folwer to the current blue line that means one of Phaneuf, Methot or Ceci then drops to the bottom pair. Or, on the flipside, you are shipping out a top 6 forward for a bottom pair defenseman who makes $4M per for the next 2 seasons and then becomes UFA. Neither one of those scenarios make sense on the blue line and you also have now turned what is currently a groundhog hole on left wing into the Rideau Sinkhole.


So assume for a moment that the rumored talk is Ceci for Nugent-Hopkins. By doing so, you would move out a top 4 defenseman in return for a centre who may or may not be better than the Senators' current top centre.



I know these HERO charts don't tell the whole story, but as a basis of comparison they are often the best tool available of comparing players as well as determining where a player is suited for in a lineup.


As an aside, the two most common names mentioned in the comments section of this space are RNH and Matt Duchene. I continually scoff at the notion that Nugent-Hopkins would be any type of upgrade on Turris, and isn't even that far ahead of Mika Zibanejad for that matter, and far less durable. He hasn't done much to turn heads in the NHL, and there is a reason he is about a month away from being the Oilers' third line centre. He was the top pick in what might go down as the worst draft since the Phillips one, but he still carries some kind of caveat of being a prime time player, which he hasn't shown with any amount of regularity. Not to mention the fact that Nugent-Hopkins carries a $6M cap hit for the next 5 years, not something I would be interested in gambling on even with Eugene's money.

Duchene would certainly be a nice add, but the cost would be prohibitive, likely a top 6 forward (Zibanejad?) plus Ceci and then other asset(s) (White/Chabot and/or top draft pick). Even if Joe Sakic decides to move him, he isn't just going to give him away and the price at auction would be steep.

Now back to the rumors.

So, neither one makes sense on their own. But if Pierre Dorion could pull both off, does that make sense? Essentially trading Ceci and Hoffman for Fowler and Nugent-Hopkins?

Is the defense better?



Agruably, no. Fowler was down on the Ducks' depth chart, which is why he is rumored to be available. But his numbers aren't even as good as Ceci in many cases and while Ceci needs a contract he is at least under the Senators' control for 4 more years while Fowler will be UFA in 2.


And does Hoffman for RNH make the Senators better up front?



RNH is no more legit first line centre than Turris, and Hoffman provides more pure offense. While adding Nugent-Hopkins would probably necessitate moving Mika Zibanejad to the wing, something I have advocated for years, overall the swap doesn't make sense in terms of overall depth.

So in a vaccuum neither trade makes sense on their own, and even when combined they are closer, but I think the Senators are better off with the devil you know rather than the devil you don't.

Speaking of Devils, winger Kyle Palmieri, 25 year old RFA who had filed for arbitration like Hoffman has, reached an agreement with the club on a 5 year, $23.5M contract. Hoffman and Palmieri had pretty similar numbers last season (KP:30-27-57, MH:29-30-59). The big difference is, this was Palmieri's breakout season, similar to what Hoffman did last season and the Senators asked to see more before ponying up. Palmeiri got paid based on one 30 goal season, which is great news for the Hoffman camp who have a great comparable to submit should the process get to the arbitration hearings.



I haven't heard any definitive figures on where the negotiations are at, what is being asked and offered, but almost certainly Hoffman will win this battle, and the Palmieri contract gives him just a little more ammunition.
Join the Discussion: » 79 Comments » Post New Comment
More from Jared Crozier
» Goodbye, and good luck!
» Can Colin White fill the #2C role as early as next year?
» Boucher staying put, at least for now
» Boucher Day
» Sens fall to #4 in draft lottery