Brendan Smith. Kevin Shattenkirk. Kevin Shattenkirk. Brendan Smith. Most of the discussions centering around improving the Rangers' defense have been on these two players. But there are others potentially in the mix, so is it either, neither or both for the Blueshirts on the blueline?
Update: Smith re-signed at around 2pm Wednesday:
The AAV is $4.35 for the four year deal with a limited NTC. I had said below four years at $4.5 made sense, so very happy with this deal. Pair him with Brady Skjei and you have your second pair set. For an analytical look at Smith, which also portrays as a good second-pair d-man, see below:
One component to keep in mind was something that coach Alain Vigneault said during his season-ending press conference, which was “We’re definitely looking at bringing in another young defenseman next year.” At the time, it was viewed as an admission that he was looking for defensive help from AHL Hartford. That young d-man might have come from Arizona in the Derek Stepan/Antti Raanta trade in Anthony DeAngelo, but as of June 28, there is no guarantee he breaks camp with the parent club. This will be determined camp.
GM Jeff Gorton has indicated that the Rangers are rebuilding on the fly. Buying out Dan Girardi and trading Stepan were two clear signs that the team is looking to get younger and also quicker. Gorton has spoken about the need for each, backing up that talk with his moves. Smith and Shattenkirk are each 28 years old, so adding one or both will not make the team markedly older, though thinking forward to the future, that will depend on the length of the contract.
Elliotte Friedman in his
30 thoughts included the following: "On the blue line: the Rangers and (Brendan) Smith appear headed towards a deal>" That view bolsters what Larry Brooks
reported Monday . Brooks added that Smith's agent Anton Thun did not discuss terms of an agreement that Smith is seeking, but it’s likely he would be able to command a four- or five-year contract north of $4 million per year.
When New York acquired Smith last February, they surrendered a 2018 second-round pick and a 2017 third-rounder. At the time of the deal, given the cost, most expected that Gorton was willing ti pay that price based on the expectation/hope that Smith would re-sign with the team. Parting with the two picks would be more palatable if it came with Smith re-upping with the Blueshirts.
In my blog right before the Smith acquisition, I noted the following pieces of info. First, Aaron Ward noted that a possible extension for Smith would be three-years at $3.75 million, so it's possible Smith never makes it to free agency. I think if that was the case, we would be ecstatic. Second, Some of the comments on Smith from a Red Wings blog were:
Great skater. Plays with an edge. Good shot impacts. Never really put in a position to produce offense like he did in college. Justin Schultz 2.0 with more tools imo.
All the tools. No tool box. Plays with an edge. Raises game in playoffs. Third pair guy. Excellent skater. Stands up for teammates. Low hockey IQ. Great teammate.
Smith was all that and more. He brought a physical edge and more to the team, which was solely they were/are lacking. Smith also can play the right and the left side, though he is better suited to the left. For what he brought to the team and what I think he can deliver in the future, likely as a second-pair player initially, probably with Brady Skjei, New York would be wise to bring him back. The longer it goes and closer we get to July 1, the less of a likelihood he is retained. He made $2.25 mil in 2015-16 and $3.25 mil last year for a salary cap AAV of $2.75 mil. Smith is going to get a healthy raise on the actual dollars he made last season. Four years at $4.5 mil per makes sense.
Chris Nichols, reporting on what Bob McKenzie said regarding the Rangers' level of interest in Shattenkirk, wrote:
Elliotte Friedman in his 30 thoughts added:
I know we’ve been hammering Shattenkirk to the Rangers, but New York seems very determined to increase the roles and responsibilities of its young players. The draft-day trade with Arizona is excellent evidence of that.
The Rangers and Shattenkirk have been a rumored match seemingly forever. A local kid who rooted for the team growing up that also plays the right side and fills a material need seemed to be a match made in heaven. Before last year's trading deadline, I was fairly close to all in on getting him, depending on the cost. When I heard what Washington gave up to acquire him - 1st RD pick in 2017, 2nd RD pick in 2018 (though Wash traded it for Lars Ellen, so this piece isn't locked down) and Zach Sanford going to St. Louis - my immediate view was couldn't have NY beaten that. Then you heard some whispers that the asking price was much higher than that to the Rangers since he wouldn't have been a rental and agreed with not meeting that ask.
With Shattenkirk, lots of the chatter lately is how he is poor defensively. There is no doubt that he struggled in Washington. Part of that might have been due to the system they utilized; a significant change from what was deployed in St. Louis. But that doesn't fully explain his issues, especially since during last season St; Louis also underwent a change in defensive style, moving from the man-to-man D favored by Ken Hitchcock to more of a zone employed by Mike Yeo. Maybe, Shattenkirk is better suited to a zone system, as he is not a shut down d-man, but who helps generate the attack.
Money is likely not to be the issue, because last year, Shattenkirk reportedly turned down other deals that would have come with extensions, including Edmonton and Tampa Bay. In each of those deals, the $ were in the $6-7 mil range, which was the belief of his expectations now. My view on this though is since Shattenkirk turned down that type of money, there may somewhat of a hometown discount for him to sign with New York. Though, rumors are that Tampa Bay is still interested and will be a player for him in the free agent market place.
Sean Hartnett wrote the following after the season, all of which is still true.
Out of all of their needs, the two most pressing are gaining a top-pair right-handed defenseman and a power play ace. Top free agent defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk would fill both of those needs. Shattenkirk logs 20 minutes of possession-strong play, he excels at initiating attacks, and can help unlock captain Ryan McDonagh’s full offensive potential by skating on his right side.
Over the past five seasons, Ottawa Senators’ dynamo Erik Karlsson is the only NHL defenseman to record more power play points (118) than Shattenkirk’s 113. Signing Shattenkirk would immediately upgrade a Rangers power play that slumped to 7.7 percent during the playoffs.
Generally, the biggest fear of general managers is being burned on the back end of a long-term deal. An over-commitment in term can be backbreaking. But every player has a different shelf life. Shattenkirk is 28. If the Rangers or any other team plan on offering him a seven-year contract, they can look at comparables.
Brian Rafalski and Dan Boyle continued to be productive, high-tempo puck-movers into their mid-30s and beyond. At 6-foot and 209 pounds, Shattenkirk has a slightly larger frame, so perhaps he will withstand injuries.
Based on the above, it would seem to be a no-brainer to bring in 'Kirk, either with Smith or individually. But not so fast. As noted above, New York talked about getting younger. Beyond the acquisition of DeAngelo, the Rangers also brought on board college free agent Neal Pionl, a right-handed, d-man who can move the puck. Shortly before that, New York signed Bereglazov, who was an undrafted prospect out of the KHL. Add into the mix Sean Day, who fell to New York in the third round last year and exceeded expectations, getting back to that elite prospect status he had years ago. So, the D that was weak in the past, now has several young options that really didn't exist a year ago.
Further evidence of this is seen with Gordie Clark talking about the Rangers' prospects, including Gropp, Pionk, Bereglazov and the young goalies:
What does all this mean? I was firmly on the add Smith and Shattenkirk bandwagon. Now, my view has modified somewhat and it remains on the Smith side but less so on Shattenkirk. Yes, his skill set is needed and if they can get him at a reasonable term in both years and dollars, he should be brought in. But the development of those aforementioned, young d-men coupled with acquisition of DeAngeo and presence of Ryan Graves as well, means I am pushing a bit less for bring on Shattenkirk.
If Smith is brought back and Shattenkirk isn't, could the D look like
McDonagh-Smith,
Skjei-DeAngelo,
Staal-Holden, with Pionk/Bereglazov/Day battling it out to make the roster (this expects Kevin Klein to retire).
That puts a lot of pressure on the young D and leaves with little of a safety valve if they falter. To me, all need more seasoning. Pionk is trying to go from the NCAA straight to the pros. Bereglazov from the KHL to the NHL and Day from Juniors to the NHL. I think all need more seasoning, which is why they look to me as better possible in-season than start of season options to me.
One name mentioned as being available is Jason Demers, who has four years at $4.5 mil left. He would be a perfect fit on the top pairing, but he requires a trade, costing assets, likely a forward or two and/or a pick, which may be be too rich for NY. But keep an eye on this.
Next year, Holden will be gone, and don't be shocked if he is used as trade bait for a forward or as part of a deal, and Staal could be as well, as part of a buyout or trade. You could have DeAngelo, Pionk, Bereglazov and Day in the lineup with Graves knocking on the door. If NY really wanted to be younger, that would do it, as possibly only McD, in the last year of his deal, and Smith, if signed, would be in NY as vets, if Staal is moved. But, one caveat, defenseman growth is not linear, so each develop at their pace and sometimes not all. Which means you need veteran depth and relying on youth to make up such a big part of the blue liner can at times be very dangerous.
The next week will be interesting...
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