I was in the midst of working my Mika Zibanejad signing blog as well as one discussing Sean Hartnett's view that the Rangers should consider adding Jaromir Jagr, but then these two, somewhat conjoined rumors, broke. Each of these were discussed previously, but Zib's signing now seems to have kicked the rumor-sphere up a notch. My view has been fairly clear on both, but let's go this again.
Buying out Marc Staal:
With Zib signed for $5.35 million for the next five years, New York has slightly above $3 million in cap space. A decent chunk of the utilized cap room is taken up by Staal's $5.7 million AAV, which runs the next four years. Staal's decline the past few seasons has been heavily documented. Whether due to the eye injury, the concussions, the leg injury a few seasons or the cumulative impact of each of those ailments, Staal's play has dropped off significantly. When the debate as to if someone should be bought out was raised, Staal was 1a or 1b next to Dan Girardi. New York decided to buy out G, partially due to the slightly lower dead cap hit but also because G's buyout term was six years as opposed to eight years for Staal.
What, if anything, has changed? Since G was bought out, New York added Anthony DeAngelo in a trade, re-signed Brendan Smith and signed Kevin Shattenkirk as a free agent. Those three plus the presence of Alexei Bereglazov, Sergey Zborovskiy and Sean Day along with the signings of Neal Pionk and Vince Pedrie gives the Rangers a ton of depth on the blue line. Staal, along with Nick Holden, who will be discussed in a bit, have become a bit superfluous. As of July 26, the belief is that ADA was brought in to play, not to sit, despite the areas of growth still required in his game. For him to take the next step in his development, he has to play. Right now, he is penciled in as an extra d-man, but likely is slated to play on the third pair. For that to happen, Staal or Holden must be moved.
The issue, as we have discussed before, is the length and terms of the buyout. Staal's buyout is for eight years, the dead cap space would be $2,133,333 the next two seasons, $3,133,333 in 2019-20, $3,933,333 in 2020-21 and $1,433,333 the next four years. Girardi's hit is in 2017-18: $2.61M, 18-19: $3.61M, 19-20: $3.61M, 20-21: $1.11M, 21-22: $1.11M and 22-23: $1.11M. If the Rangers did buy out Staal, they would have $4.74 mil in dead cap space, but if both had been on the roster, each would have been using $11.2 mil in cap space, so in essence, NY would save over $6 mil in cap space, or about what Kevin Shattenkirk is making.
The only reasons to buy out Staal now and not after the season are two-fold: 1) there is a possible deal for a center who is making a substantial enough salary for which the trading team won't eat any of it to facilitate a deal and 2) freeing up space for the young d-men to play. The second one is more plausible since the first point could still be accomplished by moving Holden, depending on what the pivot man acquired makes. I still think it's an incredible long-shot Staal is bought out, but the whispers of it being a possibility has started.
Tyler Bozak for Nick Holden and a pick.
Discussions on a deal like this started weeks, if not months ago. Larry Brooks stoked the fire that had just been embers by the blogging community with his Slap Shots article on July 8. In it, Brooks wrote:
If the Maple Leafs’ addition of Marleau prompts the club to solicit offers for Tyler Bozak, the 31-year-old center whose average ice time has declined from 20:57 to 16:26 over the past four seasons, expect the Rangers to be among the interested parties.
Nick Holden likely would be the opening ante to get in on Bozak, a one-year right-handed rental at $4.2 million who habitually has excelled at the dots (56.7 last year, 53.6 for his eight-year career), is capable offensively (18 goals, 37 assists, 55 points last season) and would slot into the middle two or three with Kevin Hayes behind Mika Zibanejad.
Bozak, of course, would have to go if the Leafs were to join a potential Tavares trade derby this season. Next year? Toronto loses Bozak as well as James Van Riemsdyk’s $4.25 million and Leo Komarov’s $2.95 million, while William Nylander becomes a restricted free agent.
But there is no doubt the addition of Marleau makes it more difficult for Toronto to add Tavares.
My response then was: Toronto is over the cap but can just put Joffrey Lupul or Nathan Horton on LTIR and be compliant, so they do not need to move Bozak's salary. As a UFA, he is highly unlikely to be back with the team next year. Now if the Maple Leafs want improve their blue line and free up some room to provide flexibility, the Holden would be a nice fit for them, sliding into the second or third pairing and also seeing PP time. Bozak would help NY, as he would move David Desharnais back to the fourth line and also enable J.T. Miller to stay at wing. The salaries would fit as well in terms of what the Rangers have available and allowing Toronto to create more room. This is a deal we discussed earlier in the week, but for now, it's speculation with a bit more realism then our initial conversations on it.
I add now that shortly after Brooks wrote that column, Kevin McGann wrote for the Toronto Star that the Leafs had no interest in Holden and their target might be Olli Maatta (as I noted a few weeks ago). Has anything since then substantially changed? Toronto's view is likely the same and if they don't view Holden as a substantial improvement over what they have, there is no urgency for the Maple Leafs to make a deal. I believe New York would move Holden to free up cap room. Ideally, it would be for a center. But my view is unless you have targeted someone or know you are getting back a player of need, keep Holden for now and see if the young d-men are ready. I am a firm believer in the adage that "defensemen growth is not linear," meaning just because a player played well as a rookie or improved as a sophomore, there is no guarantee he won't regress. As such, with cap room still available, why just "dump" a productive blue liner to create space, if that space won't be needed, especially since NY can do what they did last. Accrue cap space throughout the season and make a splash at the deadline.
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