|
Rangers' free agent primer, team can go in many different directions |
|
|
|
|
|
As I have referred to it the past several years, the silly season - aka free agency - is almost upon us. July 1 is usually when teams overspend and then end up with buyers remorse, as written by Adam Proteau (http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Adam-Proteau/Restraint-in-free-agency-period-can-be-preferable8230/225/86155). But, it also can be a time where wise, targeted acquisitions are made, aided by the negotiating period that the NHL instituted a few years ago.
For the Rangers, as discussed the other day, it all depends on how to define the term "rebuilding on the fly" used by GM Jeff Gorton to describe where New York is and what they are doing. Rumors are flowing fast and furious as to who New York is in and not in on. Do they go the short-term rout with several veterans, paving the way for the kids down the road? Do they go for some younger - meaning not over-35 players - for three or more years, to fill the existing roles? The answer to each will show how Gorton plans on playing free agency.
Either way, it doesn't mean that GM Jeff Gorton should just throw the $18 or so million in cap room - based on Kevin Klein retiring - unwisely just to bring in assets. But substantial work remains in what looks to be a weak free agent market. What I will note below is somewhat of a regurgitation of what I wrote the other day but updated to reflect the most recent information and rumors. In addition, I will add in my top targets.
In the expansion draft, New York lost their fourth line center, Oscar Lindberg, removing a solid piece from the lineup, creating a hole. Then, the day of the entry draft, New York cleared cap room by dealing Derek Stepan and his $6.5 mil cap figures the next four years. While that creates opportunity, regardless of your view of Stepan, it does remove your first or second line center and makes the team, as of now, worse than it was before. The cap hit and the upcoming NTC were the key drivers in moving him.
New York now is left with RFA Mika Zibanejad (tendered at $3.25 mil), for whom Gorton is open to short and long-term deals as well as Kevin Hayes, whose play until about March was stellar and then his production fell off of a cliff. J.T. Miller could shift from wing back to center, but to me and I believe this is how the team feels, he is better suited to playing wing. However, doing so would open room for either Jimmy Vesey or Pavel Buchnevich as a top-two wing. It's pretty clear there is a material gap at center.
The center options there aren't great but somewhat plentiful:
Are you giving Joe Thornton the three-years he wants, knowing that he is coming off leg injuries and at 35+, if he falters and you want to walk away, the cap hit remains on the books? (All signs seem to point to JT heading to LA or maybe Ana but NY is not out of the mix. Aiding that pursuit maybe opportunity of having close friend and former HC Davos teammate Rick Nash on Thornton's wing.).
What about Patrick Marleau, who also is 35+ and could be possibly moved from wing to center? (NY I supposedly in the mix as is Anaheim. His somewhat decline of speed is concerning and the leadership quotient he had might be overblown. But he did have 27 goals a year ago, was only willing to waive NMC to go to New York and has been for the most part a consistent performer)
Does Martin Hanzal as a 2/3 center excite you, especially at a substantial increase over the $3.1 cap hit he had last year? (he might be a direction to go in, especially since he is a solid, two-way center. But if he wants 4-5 years at $4-5 mil per, thanks but no thanks)
I wanted Derek Ryan, as thought his possession numbers, offensive potential and relatively low cap hit would have been a nice fit. But, he re-signed with Carolina for one-year at $1.45 million.
Another possible option will be Nick Bonino, who like Ryan, is solid possession wise and in the past, has been good between the dots plus brings a leadership and winning aspect. Like Hanzal, he too will want a solid raise over the $1.9 million he made a year ago. (That raise and terms is the scary part. He got lots of his points in the PP and may be living off the HBK run from two years ago. If he wants similar terms to what I mentioned above for Hanzal, that may be a non-starter)
Add in Brian Boyle and Dominic Moore, who each have history in New York (wouldn't mind Boyle on fourth line, but Tampa is rumored to have interest and he could go back to Toronto. I expect Moore in Pitt and don't think his time in NY ended well)
Sam Gagner, who fills a power play need and could swing between C and W, options exist, even if the names may not excite most. (Gagner to me could be the one, since he could play second or third line center and also fill it at wing. His draws aren't great, along with his subpar defense, so that's a concern)
David Desharnais and Mikhail Grigirenko might also be options. Desh has been all over the place, failing to stick in any specific line. But he has been a 2C. Grig's advanced metrics portray him as exactly a 4C. He is young enough to exceed that level but he has failed to do so to date. That might be due to who he has played with and can see him as a possible fall-back option.
Friday, Jussi Jokinen was bought out. He profiles nicely as a 2/3C but at 36, the issue is if he is lousy, the cap figured remains if he is waived (see below)
One internal option to fill the fourth line center role is Boo Nieves, who had a real small cup of coffee in the NHL last year. but he seems to possess the skill set to be that agitative force on the fourth line while also chipping in offensively.
The Rangers have a copious amount of cap room in a year where having that space may not be the best time to have it. Gorton has said that having the cap space allows the team to receive calls and make trades. That may end up the best option to improve the squad, given the lack of exciting or deep names in free agency. Needs exist up front, as noted above, and on the blue line.
One name prominently mentioned in deals have been Alex Galchenyuk, who I would love in New York. But he was talked about as a return for Stepan, which now is no longer a possibility and unclear if it ever was a real option. To acquire Gal would require assets from the current roster, which might weaken an area at the same time while improving the explosiveness up front. The balance of adding without weakening at the same time has to be a major focus for Gorton. In addition, all signs point to him staying in Montreal, the extent of which will depend on the behavioral adjustment needed by GM Marc Bergevin.
Matt Duchene is another named mentioned, but the rumors are that CBJ and Nash are the two teams mentioned as a likely landing spot. In CBJ, the main piece coming back would be Ryan Murray. Carolina is now in the mix, possibly offering Noah Hanifin. The Islanders may be out while Pittsburgh was rumored to have interest.
The other theory espoused by some is offer sheeting Leon Draisaitl or Sam Bennett. As we have seen, signing RFAs to offer sheets has been a rarity at best. I agree, adding Drasaitl at 10 mil per would be a tremendous get, but that would impact what Zib is signed for and for how long? Also, even though Connor McDavid is getting $13.25 mil for the next eight years and it would net them four, first rounders, Edmonton would likely match that offer. I like Bennett, but I expect Calgary would also match and the jury is further out on him after he regressed a bit last year.
Post-draft, the Rangers have Zib, Hayes, Rick Nash, Mats Zuccarello, Chris Kreider, Michael Grabner, Miller, Vesey and Buchnevich. Jesper Fast (tendered at $997.5k), who is an RFA, will be re-signed, but his hip surgery could keep him out the first month or two of the season. Nicklas Jensen, tendered the minimum amount to retain his rights ($650,000), will be back, but Marek Hrivik and Brandon Pirri ($1.1 mil) will not. If the season goes south, New York could move Nash and/or Grabner, as each are only signed through next year, adding assets for the future.
If Miller was moved to center, the Rangers could go with Zib between Buch and Kreider, Hayes between Nash and Zucc and Miller centering Grabner and Vesey, or any combination therein. When Fast returns, he will play on the fourth line. Optimally, I would rather see Hayes as the 3C between Grabner and Miller, a trio that has success last season. That would make acquiring a 2C as a key, along with a 4C and to me a scoring winger.
In terms of wingers:
The best available are Alexander Radulov and Marleau, neither of whom based on $ and terms, I expect in New York.
Hanzal could play wing but he is better suited to center.
Thomas Vanek is available, but after not signing him last year, it's unlikely the Rangers will have much interest, unless in a cheap, one-year deal.
Jaromir Jagr may be available and it would be interesting to see if he was willing to come back to NY. He would help the PP but his desire to maintain possession of the puck and lack of speed may not fit well in NY.
Justin Williams could be an option, but he too will want more than one year, which is a bit untenable to me, same with Chris Kunitz. (Williams wants to stay on the East Coast and is rumored to be a key target of the Isles/Philly/TB. Not my first target but I could see making a play for him).
Columbus bought out Scott Hartnell. While his overall production was okay, his P/60 was 2.42, above several more prominent names. As an agitative winger, despite the dislike for him on this blog by many, he still would be a nice option. I can look past certain events in history, and while Hartnell has been a pain in the rear to NY, having him on their side wouldn't be the worst idea in the world.
New Jersey bought out Michael Cammalleri and Devante Smith-Pelley. Each could be interesting alao as one-year deals. Cammalleri has shown he can score but is injury prone while DSP might fit nicely in the fourth line.
If there is a silver lining to the current roster, the wing depth is pretty solid, and I expect Jensen to get a real chance out of camp. One name to keep an eye on is Ilya Kovalchuk. He still would have to sign in New Jersey and the Devils would need to be willing to deal him. From what I have heard and seen, it's unlikely they would trade him to the Rangers and CBJ is likely the primary option if he doesn't stay in the KHL due to the rumored offer he has received, but Kovy would bring offense, especially on the PP, to the Blueshirts. He could stay in the KHL and come over next year as a free agent, but he will be over 35, which might reduce the years and $ he receives due to the recapture rules.
Now for the blue line:
In the first buyout period, it wasn't a real surprise that Dan Girardi was bought out. It was going to be G or Marc Staal, but with fewer years left on a deal and several years older, G was the better option. By moving him and Stepan, the tone and tenor in the locker room and on the ice changes. It appears as that migration was a conscious move by the team to create a new buzz and level of leadership, on- and off-the-ice. While I don't believe the team has gone stale, adding in new voices and leaders, especially vocal ones who lead not only by example but vociferously looks to be the new direction of the tea.
It isn't a surprise that Girardi is getting interest in the free agent market, with all signs pointing to a deal for several years in Tampa Bay. With G gone, at the NHL level, New York was left with Ryan McDonagh, Brady Skjei, Brendan Smith, who was wisely signed to a four year, $17.4 million deal this week, Staal who wasn't bought out; and Nick Holden, who wasn't exposed in the expansion draft. McD, Staal and Holden can all move to the right side, but are better on the left, creating a hole on that side of the ice. In the Stepan and Antti Raanta deal, New York acquired the #7 pick and Anthony DeAngelo, a local kid. DeAngelo, who I covered in my trade analysis blog, should provide offense from the right side, but is a major work-in-progress defensively and maturity wise.
The main rumored option is Kevin Shattenkirk, who is another local product and been on the team's radar for a while. Shattenkirk turned down several big $ deals last season, so money may not be the main focus. But 6-7 years at even $6.5 mil might be untenable for 'Kirk, who would help the offense from the blue line but is not a shut down d-man. (Rumors today are that 'Kirk is leaning towards signing with NJ. Boston is still in the mix, maybe Tampa, who he turned down last year, and Toronto. Buffalo might have been in the mix but their Marco Scandella/ Jason Pominville acquisitions may take them out of the mix. With 'Kirk, he fills a major need and I think his defensive issues have been overblown. He would take pressure off McD, allowing him to focus on the other aspects of his game, while also allowing ADA time to settle in. It all depends on how vast the years and $ difference is. If a year or so and under a million, then find a way to bridge the gap. But NJ has a ton of cap room and can overpay him to get him there).
Jason Demers maybe on the block from Florida, who are looking to reduce their salary cap. He would require assets but his deal is about the same as the one Smith signed. Demers can contribute offensively, but that isn't his specific forte. Defensively is where his value really is and he would nicely fit in across McD on the top line.
One player who won't be back is Adam Clendening, who the Rangers didn't qualify an offer at $650,000). You know my view on Clendening and I tweeted it out last night. I don't agree with this move and think he was misused in New York.
New York did add several college free agents and have some youth in the system. As of now, Alexei Bereglazov and Neal Pionk should get shots to join defense. Sean Day could start the year in Hartford, as he looks to build on his breakthrough campaign last year. Sergei Zborovsky might also get an opportunity in camp while Steven Kampfer may be the 7/8 d-man. What all these names show and mean is that New York has a pipeline of blueliners, which did not exist the previous few seasons. The new focus has to be creating the same up front, which is why five centers/wingers were selected in the draft.
Between the pipes:
Right now, there is Henrik Lundqvist, that's basically it. Antti Raanta, who was a perfect back up, went to Arizona while the Rangers decided not to qualify MacKenzie Skapski ($696,500). Originally, I thought the possible options could be a reunion with Chad Johnson or bring in Keith Kincaid. The recently bought out Antti Niemi doesn't interest me much. In the last few days, both Mike Condon (Senators) and Keith Kinkaid (Devils) were re-signed while, according to Elliotte Friedman, a number of backup netminders are connected to other teams: Johnson to Buffalo, Brian Elliott to Philadelphia, Steve Mason to Winnipeg (done deal as of 7pm Friday), Ryan Miller to Anaheim, Antti Niemi to Pittsburgh, Anders Nilsson to Vancouver. In addition, Eddie Lack was traded to Calgary, leaving Ondrej Pavelec or maybe a deal for Andrew Hammond. The answer seems to be:
Pavelec would be a one-year stop gap as a back up goalie. He has regressed substantially in Winnipeg, which might have been caused by the team around him. Some of the advanced metrics show a solid goalie 5x5 but one with technical and concentration issues. The hope has to be that goaltending coach Benoit Allaire works his magic again. Sooner or later relying on that may prove to not end up with the desired result and to me, this will be an area of concern entering the season. One bit of a good news is that the Rangers only play 11 back to back games, fewest in the Eastern conference. But, the back up will need to play 20-25 games to keep Lundqvist fresh, so maybe opponents can be cherry picked.
As I wrote the other day, re-tooling or re-building. What we see over the next week and in free agency will go a long way to answering the question of the team's direction. To me, a true #1 RHD, two centers, at least one winger and a backup goalie are needed; hopefully not all from the bargain basement.
New York Rangers Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»