The Rangers offered arbitration last week to eight players, Kreider, Miller, Hayes, McIlrath, Jensen, Bodie, Hughes & Hrivik. Tuesday, Jensen and Bodie signed deals that will pay each $600k if they remain in the NHL. Hughes and Hrivik have not yet signed, but neither opted for player-elected arbitration, nor do I expect the Rangers to offer arb by 5pm Wednesday, the time where clubs have to elect arb. That leaves the big-four RFAs, Kreider, Miller, Hayes and McIlrath, each of whom not surprisingly elected arb.
By electing arbitration, the looming specter of a possible offer sheet is now removed. In addition, the Rangers get to determine if the arb hearing will be for a one or two-year term. Lastly, because New York had at least one player elect to go to arbitration, the Rangers now have a second buyout window, which means we have a month more of Girardi and Staal buyout rumors, speculation and conversation. This won't end until a few days after all four players have reached an accord, either via arb award or by signing a deal.
The arbitration hearings will be held July 20-Aug. 4 in Toronto with awards noted at late as August 6. The team and the players can still negotiate up until and through the hearing. The Rangers have not had a player go through an arbitration hearing since Nikolay Zherdev in 2009, when the Rangers walked away from his $3.9 million judgement, making him an unrestricted free agent.
Beyond determining if they should offer one or two years in arb, New York has to decide if one or all these players should be dealt and/or if each should be signed to a longer-term deal. Kreider has two years until he hits unrestricted free agency, so if a longer term accord is reach, NY would be buying out some of UFA years, meaning the $ required will be higher. New York, after signing Jensen, who will need to go through waivers to be sent down, and Bodie, who will open the minors, so his cap hit won't count, have about $12.4 mil of camp room left, which should be sufficient but leaves little wiggle room. Jensen gets a bump because he needs to be sent down and Oscar Lindberg is out recovering from his hip surgery. That waiver requirement also could mean that Tanner Glass will in all likelihood open the 2016-17 season in Hartford.
Kreider, 25, despite a slow start, matched his career high of 21 goals and added 22 assists in 79 games as he completed a two-year, $4.95 million deal. That deal was signed just before arbitration. If you want a decent comp for him, Marcus Johansson was awarded 1 yr @ $3.75M contract last year in arbitration and will go through the process again this season. If Kreider gets a one-year deal, he should go from $2.475 mil to around $3.5-4 mil. For two years, up that amount slightly to closer to $4-$4.25 mil. If New York opted for a 4-5 year deal, the look for a cap hit of around $4.75-$5.25 million.
Miller, 23, bet on himself last year, opting for a one-year deal at the 874k minimum. That bet played out well, as he had his best season as pro - and his first full one with the Rangers - tallying 22 goals and 21 assists in 82 games. I had predicted last week that Miller will triple his salary on a one-year deal to about $25-2.6 mil. A two-year deal would probably be close to $3 mil a year and a 4-5 year deal would be in the $4-$4.25 mil range.
Hayes, 24, was brilliant in his rookie season, and regardless of what the advanced metrics showed, he regressed last year. He finished with 14 goals and 22 assists in 79 games in an uneven sophomore season. Hayes is coming off an ELC but made about $2.8 mil in performance bonuses his first season. I could see NY giving either a one or two year deal and he will be a test case as to how much the team wants to squeeze him in negotiations. I could see $1.5-$1.75 in one year deal and close to $2 mil in a two-year deal/
McIlrath, 24, spent the full season in the NHL because he would have required waivers to be sent down. Even though he remained up all season, McIlrath dressed for just 34 games with two goals, two assists and 64 penalty minutes. He was on a one-year, $600,000 deal last year and predict he will be in the $850k-$1 mil range..
Larry Brooks wrote the following today:
Jeff Gorton has to be as surprised as anyone that, three months from the start of next season, the Rangers are almost the exact same team that was not good enough last season. Except minus their best defenseman and power-play quarterback the second half of the season, both of whom were named Keith Yandle. Because believe me, this was not the plan.
But Gorton, in his first full offseason as general manager, is not just some innocent bystander here. He is the decider. From what we’ve gleaned, the Blueshirts, a) are extremely reluctant to trade Derek Stepan; b) won’t trade Ryan McDonagh; c) cannot get anything even remotely resembling equal value for Rick Nash; d) have not been shopping Chris Kreider.
So when removing those players from the equation — after making the decision not to buy out either Dan Girardi or Marc Staal and thus incur $12 million of empty cap space over eight years on the former and/or $21.77 million of dead cap space over 10 years on the latter — how exactly do the Blueshirts expect to change the equation and dynamic on Broadway next year?....
The critical question: Are the Rangers overvaluing their players or is the rest of the league undervaluing them?
My view, as I tweeted earlier Tuesday night is: maybe they were offered garbage with requirement they eat lots of money and opted not to deal them. It's also possible Gorton misplayed his hand, overvaluing each player and now is stuck. The point is none of us really know, so your view will be skewed based on the trust level with Gorton and management as a whole.
Taking the four points above:
a) if NY dealt Stepan, they would have to be confident that Hayes could slide up to the #2 center or they could acquire a young center who has similar growth potential. Clearly neither was the case.
b) McDonagh maybe could have been dealt to acquire a young stud winger, then trade Nash or Kreider to get Shattenkirk, but would that make the team better?
c) We felt that after the big signing were made, then maybe Nash would have more value. That has yet to be the case but could change. In addition, dealing Nash for pennies on the dollar, same with G or Staal makes sense if you are solely wishing to create cap room, which might be the wisest course of action. But if not willing to eat salary and/or get garbage back, then why deal one?
d) if the team believes in Kreider, then I understand not dealing him. But explore the market and see what's there. If garbage others, then no harm, no foul. However, not talking deal sends a message to the player that management wants him in NY, which could help negotiations.
e) If there was any question why G or Staal aren't gone, this answers it: Girardi buyout would incur $12 million of empty cap space over eight years. Staal buyout would result in $21.77 million of dead cap space over 10 years. Are you ready, willing and able to eat that about of cash and create that much dead cap space. Keep this in mind when we keep talking buyout.
Brooks added:
If the Rangers aren’t going to be able to make a material change in the personnel who conspired to play chaotically in their own end pretty much from the start to the finish of 2015-16, then it will be Alain Vigneault’s responsibility to change the team’s system in its own end of the ice.
The Blueshirts were not quick enough — and not quick enough in their reads — to succeed under the coach’s style in which players are programmed to aggressively attack the puck-carrier and seek to outnumber their opponents in critical areas on the ice. The Rangers consistently abandoned the front of the net in order to chase, and in vain as often as not. The same goal — from a man wide open from in front with both defensemen off in no-man’s land and a forward late in picking him up — was scored against Henrik Lundqvist and Antti Raanta 100 times if it was scored once.
Let’s make this clear, once again: The defensemen were not the only culpable parties last year. The Rangers’ repeated breakdowns were also the responsibility of forwards who were delinquent — and even lazy — much of the season in getting back after turning over the puck.
So maybe a more patient style this year from the Rangers under Vigneault and incoming assistant Jeff Beukeboom. Maybe more patience from a defense corps that sure isn’t the best skating group in the league.
If minimal change, which right now looks likely, then NY may have to play with a different style. In addition, playing smarter with a higher panic level is a key. We saw too often last year, ill-advised and rushed back passes. Defensively, there was no communication and no sticking with the system, as each player did what they wanted do without paying attention to structure. if the players don't change, either the system has to or the system has to be engrained in the players. This is where AV and Beuk will earn their money, deciding of the system can be followed or is a change is needed, making sure each player in on the same page and not reading their own book.
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