GM Jeff Gorton continued to whittle down the Rangers RFA list, reaching agreement with two players while also signing another bottom-six forward. Friday, Gorton reached one-year deals with Dylan McIlrath (RFA with arb rights), Tommy Hughes (RFA with no arb rights) and Josh Jooris (UFA). Following those signings, Chris Kreider and Kevin Hayes (each with arb rights) and Marek Hrivik (no arb rights) remain unsigned.
McIlrath, who made $600k last year, signed for $800k, avoiding his July 21 arbitration hearing. Larry Brooks reported that if McIlrath, who dressed for 38 games last year, does not play in at least 42 games this season, he will become a Group 6 unrestricted free agent next July 1. If he does play 42 or more contests, McIlrath will be an RFA once again. With Dan Girardi and Kevin Klein already on the right side and Brady Skjei later to likely move from the left to right side, coach Alain Vigneault may have his work cut out for him to find 42 games for McIlrath to play.
This is what I had predicted for McIlrath's contract last week, so was fairly on target:
McIlrath, 24, spent the full season in the NHL because he would have required waivers to be sent down. Even though he remained up all season, McIlrath dressed for just 34 games with two goals, two assists and 64 penalty minutes. He was on a one-year, $600,000 deal last year and predict he will be in the $850k-$1 mil range.
The Blueshirts signed Jooris out of Calgary to a two-way deal worth $600,000 at the NHL level. As Brooks note, Jooris, 16-21-37 in 119 career games (4-9-13 in 59 last year), made $975k in 2014-15 and likely will compete for a fourth-line job. Oscar Lindberg, who likely pencils in as the club’s fourth-line center, will miss approximately the first month of the season rehabbing from post-season hip surgery, so Jooris will probably initially fill in for him initially though he can play all three forward positions.
Todd Cordell in his blog today noted what Jooris meant to Calgary, which points to how much of a low-cost, good value signing he was:
Over the last two seasons the Flames have controlled 47.4% of the shot attempts with him on the ice at 5 v 5. Without Jooris that number drops to 46%.
He is a solid shot suppressor as over the last two years he ranked 7th among 16 Flames (minimum 1,000 minutes) in shot attempts allowed per 60.
In that same span Jooris ranked 2nd among 16 Flames in 5 v 5 goals allowed per 60 minutes. With Jooris on the ice the Flames allowed 2.25 goals per 60 minutes while that number jumped to 2.48 without him.
Jooris' 5 v 5 numbers are solid but his best asset is probably his penalty killing. Over the last two seasons 12 different Flames played at least 100 4 v 5 minutes. No player was on the ice for fewer shot attempts or goals against per 60 than Jooris. (That stat is born out by the following tweet by the NYR PR: In his first two NHL seasons, Josh Jooris has been on the ice for only 14 power play goals against in 158:44 of ice time while shorthanded.
One area we had hoped Jooris would also shore up is draws but as seen by the following stats, that may not be the case. In 2015-16, Jooris only took 257 face offs, winning 114 or 44.4% of them. He won 48.6% of his 70 offensive draws but just 45.8% of his 120 defensive zone draws. In 2014-15, Jooris won 48.7% of his 567 draws, with the same win % in his -93 defensive zone draws. While those numbers are obviously much better than Kevin Hayes, they are a marked drop off from Dominic Moore, who Jooris likely replaces as the fourth line center, at least until Lindberg is ready to return. By adding Jooris and Gerbe and possibly Nick Holden, the PK, which was a nightmare last year, should be much stronger in 2016-17.
Because it's just a one-year deal, Jooris is a RFA next summer, then UFA in 2018. In addition, because it's not a two-year deal, the Rangers will need to find another vet who can be exposed in the expansion draft. As of now, Derick Brassard, Derek Stepan, Kevin Hayes, Chris Kreider, J.T. Miller, Rick Nash and Mats Zuccarello are the seven forwards the team will protect with Grabner the one forward on at least a two-year deal who will be exposed.
Jooris adds to the depth that Gorton has build on the bottom six. Grabner, Jooris, Nathan Gerbe and Nicklas Jensen have all been added or re-signed. Hrivik will eventually sign, as will Hayes. Buchnevich probably slots for now on the third line and Fast fits best there, so that's eight names for six spots and pretty much means that Tanner Glass will open the year at Hartford. In addition, Lindberg should return a month into the season, giving AV an additional option for the third or fourth line.
With signing McIlrath and Jooris, NY has about $8.375 mil in cap room. Hrivik doesn't have arb rights, so expect him between $650-$850k, leaving about $7.5 mil or so in room. There are other options available in the market - Hudler and Vrbata - to name two, plus if the Rangers really think they are players for Jimmy Vesey, they need to leave enough room to fit in his ELC. But they also have the ability to send Gerbe down to clear some additional space. Here are my predictions again for Hayes and Kreider; the latter of which just got another comp to go along with Vincent Trochek and Reilly Smith with Jaden Schwartz signing for five years, $26.35 mil Friday. I think Schwartz is a better scorer than Kreider, who does have better advanced metrics than Schwartz, so I still think my prediction below will be what he gets.
Kreider, 25, despite a slow start, matched his career high of 21 goals and added 22 assists in 79 games as he completed a two-year, $4.95 million deal. That deal was signed just before arbitration. If you want a decent comp for him, Marcus Johansson was awarded 1 yr @ $3.75M contract last year in arbitration and will go through the process again this season. If Kreider gets a one-year deal, he should go from $2.475 mil to around $3.5-4 mil. For two years, up that amount slightly to closer to $4-$4.25 mil. If New York opted for a 4-5 year deal, the look for a cap hit of around $4.75-$5.25 million.
Hayes, 24, was brilliant in his rookie season, and regardless of what the advanced metrics showed, he regressed last year. He finished with 14 goals and 22 assists in 79 games in an uneven sophomore season. Hayes is coming off an ELC but made about $2.8 mil in performance bonuses his first season. I could see NY giving either a one or two year deal and he will be a test case as to how much the team wants to squeeze him in negotiations. I could see $1.5-$1.75 in one year deal and close to $2 mil in a two-year deal.
Lastly, defenseman Tommy Hughes, 24, who has spent the last three seasons with Hartford (AHL) and has yet to make his NHL debut signed a one-year, $600k contract. He will be depth in the minors and his contract won't impact the cap during the year due to the $ amount of it. while Gorton has done a great job in creating depth in the bottom six and improving the team speed, the D, who'd had major problems last year, has been largely left untouched. Gorton maybe relying on Skjei filling a major role, Holden providing quality depth and a rebound from either or both of Dan Girardi and Marc Staal. Having that faith is probably misplaced but at this point, it may be difficult for Gorton to do much with the blue line. Personally, I still think Justin Schultz would have been a decent fit, but it seems pretty clear that he only would return to Pitt if there was a one-year deal. G or Staal could still possibly get dealt or bought out, but both scenarios are having their likelihood reduced daily. So for better or worse, what's there now is probably what will be there when the season opens.
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