Following the rush of RFA signings, I will get back to the player grades shortly to finish those I haven't covered yet. In addition, I will get up a schedule analysis down the road. Today, I will quickly focus on the two rumors over the weekend; that of Nash and Nashville and the seemingly never ending Kevin Shattenkirk conversation.
First Nash and Nashville. The rumor was mentioned by Ek in Friday. No specifics were mentioned, but as this isn't the first time this has been speculated, a few players have been mentioned as possible return options. Those players are Craig Smith and Colin Wilson. Each of them fall into the borderline top-six category, as they have seen time there but also on the third line, due to inconsistency.
Smith is scheduled to make $4.25 mil this year plus three more. Wilson's contract is for $3.9375 mil this year and next two. Comments on the blog proposed Nash and either Robin Kovacs or Ryan Gropp for Smith/Wilson and Kevin Fiala. Let's just say I would be shocked if Nashville would do a deal like this.
If the Rangers deal Nash, and I am not sold that they will, they might need to eat some salary. We have debated long and often on Nash's relative value, even when he is scoring. But you can't ignore his struggles a year ago, which likely will be a point of focus in any deal and could depress his value. Humor me and say Nashville would not require New York to eat salary. If that happened, maybe you can get Smith, my slight preference, or Wilson, but doubtful the Predators agree to deal Fiala, their best young player/prospect, even if Kovacs or Gropp was included.
A quick metrics comparison between Smith and Wilson.
I did a similar comparison of Nash to each and interestingly enough, Smith's and Nash's numbers are very similar. But a lot is based on last year and that doesn't also measure actual production. It extrapolates the production based upon 60 minutes, which is impacted by ice time, so if reasonably productive in lesser ice time than who you are compared to, the production/60 would mean that when compared to one another, the variance would be small.
I am almost at the point where dealing Nash makes little sense. Now if you were to tell me dealing him brings back a solid return and prospect and then the savings is plowed into turning it around in a deal for Shattenkirk, then maybe. But it remains to be seen if that could even happen.
That gets me to Full Tilt Rangers' column over the weekend that Shattenkirk and his agent are trying to arrange a deal to get him to the Rangers. Anthony is not one who makes up rumors. But while Shattenkirk and his agent may well be pushing for it, I am unsure of that increases the likelihood that a deal is consummated. Figuring out what would be fair for Shattenkirk from what the Rangers would deal and the Blues would want has proven difficult.
Most of the speculation has been on Nash for Shattenkirk but that hasn't appeared to gain much traction on either side. It's fairly clear that Shattenkirk plans to explore free agency. In addition, he reportedly will only consider options on the East Coast, with the Rangers, his home town team, and the Bruins prominently mentioned. Presuming that is the case, that might reduce the haul St. Louis could obtain for him, since he will be a rental. However, if the Blues believe they are contenders, they could very easily choose to bite the bullet, let the situation play out over the year and don't move him. Maybe if they falter, a desperate team emerges before the deadline and they get a decent haul from a non-East coast team. What that means is despite it looking like St. Louis is backed into a corner, that might not be the case.
Shattenkirk would give New York another top-D man to go with Ryan McDonagh. He immediately would solve the issue of a lack of a first pair right-handed defenseman. Salary wise, he likely is looking at Keith Yandle money, including the bump if he signs in a place that has state tax. Meaning in NY, that would be about $7 mil. So while the back story of a player skating on the home ice of his favorite team growing up sounds nice, sometimes money talks, so there is no guarantee he signs here. Due to that, if NY could get him now and somehow fit the salary in, cognizant that no buyout of Staal or G happens by the time that second window expires this week, they should be aggressive within to do so. That would allow the team to have 'squatting' rights to try and lock him before free agency rather than battling 30 other teams next year.
A key factor in the Nash and Shattenkirk rumors is Jimmy Vesey. If the Rangers truly believe they have a realistic shot to sign him, they may not make any move until after he becomes a free agent August 15. Vesey will only get the ELC minimum plus similar performance bonuses, which would not impact the cap until next year, so as long as NY has a bit under $1 mil they are fine. More important though is the possible spot in the top-six, maybe top-nine, which is what Vesey wants. So New York may need to keep their options on hold until after Vesey signs.
Per Steve Zipay, Sergey Zborovskiy, 19, has agreed to 3-year, 2-way entry level contract averaging $734,166 with the Rangers $633k AAV, $278K signing bonus), says @generalfanager. Zborovskiy speaks English and I wouldn't be surprised if New York tries to have him at training camp to help ease Pavel Buchnevich's transition to the US. Chris Kreider, who speaks Russian, will help but having a countryman with Buch couldn't hurt. This is what I wrote after New York drafted Zborovskiy last year and it does look like maybe Gorton did get a diamond in the rough.
Sergey Zborovskiy, defenseman (79th overall)
Ranked #145 by ISS Hockey
Ranked #103 by NHL Central Scouting (NA Skaters) -
See more at: http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=277798#sthash.ptrg985h.dpuf
This is what the Rangers press release had: skated in 71 games with the Regina Pats of the Western Hockey League (WHL) this past season, registering three goals and 16 assists for 19 points, along with a plus-15 rating and 70 penalty minutes. The 6-3, 198-pounder ranked third among team defensemen – and tied for third among team rookies – in points this season.
If you are rated in the top 100 by TNH or Top 120 by McKeens or Top 210 by Future Considerations, that's never a good sign. Maybe Gorton found a diamond in the rough, but he is buried in that much coal, then trade down, get more picks and take him at the end of the draft. Better yet, sign him as an undrafted free agent.
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