The Rangers and Mika Zibanejad were slated to go to arbitration on Tuesday, as no contract had been agreed to before the hearing. Negotiations continued as the hearing began and a contract was ironed out, avoiding the full hearing and possible ruling. Zib signed a five-year deal with an AAV of $5.35 per season, matching his arbitration request while the Rangers had initially offered $4.1 million.
Official Team Announcement:
Contract Terms:
Mika Zibanejad on the NHL Network:
With the contract agreement, New York locks up their likely #1 center this season. Zib will be counted to step up (yes, pun intended) his game following the departure of Derek Stepan. No longer will Zib have the fall-back option that Stepan presented, where criticism for team or player performance might have fallen on the new Arizona Coyote rather than on Zibanejad. You want the big bucks and for several years, then be prepared to accept the pressure that comes with it.
Larry Brooks summed up the expectations on Zib and what he will need to work on well:
There will be inherent pressure on Zibanejad, who showed flashes of excellence dotted by stretches of inferior play in his first season on Broadway — disrupted by a broken fibula that sidelined him for just under two months — to become consistently dependable. They will need him to engage more effectively on the forecheck.
Zibanejad has a superior shot and excellent playmaking skills. He can skate. A right-hand shot with a quick release, he should benefit off the power play one-timer from the left circle with Kevin Shattenkirk presumably running the show from the right point.
A pair of graphical representation of Zib's performance, first to date, then projected for 2017-18 :
Zib has produced like a second liner, but early last year, he was producing like a top-line center. That level of production must remain throughout an entire season. Plus, if/when he does it once, he will have to do it again. But, I had hoped for a five-year deal at around $5.5 million, believing that was a fair contract. His signing at that number of years and right round the hoped for amount to me is a good contract. Immediately after the signing, the comparisons to Stepan kicked off in earnest.
Comparison of Zib vs. Derek Stepan point-wise annually at this stage of career:
Comparison of Zib (green) to Stepan (orange) 5v5 in playing style:
There is no question that Stepan is much better defensively than Zib and also tallied some very big goals in the playoffs. The big criticisms of him were his lack of foot speed, velocity of his shot and offense - mainly goals - that came and went. Much of the latter criticism arose from his struggles during the 2016-17 season and difficult playoffs. To me, though, the biggest driver for the criticism was his $6.5 million salary. I wonder, and said this before, if Stepan was making $5 million per year, would there still have been a bit of a groundswell movement from the fan base to deal him?
As seen above in the first chart, Stepan had outproduced Zib at this stage of their career. That production resulted in the long-term deal he signed with New York. The combination of the cap hit but especially the looming NTC resulted in the trade to Arizona. The $ freed up by trading Stepan and buying out Dan Girardi enabled New York to sign Kevin Shattenkirk and also re-sign Zibanejad.
One argument I heard was that by trading Stepan, the price point to sign Zib was raised because Zib and his agent knew that he would be settling into the role as the #1 center rather than as a #2. That argument holds some water but that also presumes that Zib would have signed for much less during the season, which might not have been the case. By locking Zib for five years, New York bought out three free agency years. Each additional year adds $ to the contract figure, which is why you have to pay more on a longer-term deal for a player at this stage in his career than you would on a one- or two-year deal. I think Jeff Gorton did a real nice job here in terms of the years and the $, especially if you compare it what Stepan received at a similar stage of his career.
If you look at the second chart. 5v5 Zib outproduced Stepan in several different metrics, lending additional credence and potential faith that he can up his game to play like a true #1 center. Before he was hurt, Zib was playing like a #1 but after the injury, his old issue - consistency - or lack thereof reared its ugly head again. As noted above, the pressure is now all on Zib. He will be counted on to produce but also to be a leader on this team following the departures of Stepan and Girardi. With Kevin Hayes as the current #2 and David Desharnais and Lias Andersson, penciled in as the 3 and 4, unlike J.T. Miller is moved back to the pivot, the enviable depth New York had last year, including Oscar Lindberg, is gone. This places additional pressure on Zib to produce but as seen in the NHL Network interview above, he sounds ready for the task. In about two months or so we ET to find out just how ready he is.
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