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Kreider, Rangers submit arbitration figures, is long-term deal to be made?

July 20, 2016, 12:38 PM ET [525 Comments]
Jan Levine
New York Rangers Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
With Friday's looming arbitration hearing, forward Chris Kreider and the New York Rangers submitted their salary figures today. Per Aaron Ward, the club offered $3.2 million, but the player is asking $4.75 million. Neither figure really surprised me, as the Rangers come in about 33% above where Kreider's average annual value was the last two years while No. 20 asks for nearly a 100% increase.

Historically, players ask for the moon while teams attempt to low-ball knowing that the arbitrator likely comes in somewhere in the middle. One key point to remember is that with arbitration, unlike what used to exist in baseball, is that it's not an either or. Meaning either you award what player asked for or what team submitted. The arbitration call fall out anywhere in between the two.

I have run the below a few times but this they are applicable again. First is what can and cannot be mention in arbitration hearings, presuming no settlement prior. The two bolded items, one each in both sides of the ledger are interesting to note. Second is what I have predicted for Kreider salary using some recent comps, adding in what Marcus Johansson signed for today.

The evidence that can be used in arbitration cases:

- The player's "overall performance" including statistics in all previous seasons.
- Injuries, illnesses and the number of games played.
- The player's length of service with the team and in the NHL.
- The player's "overall contribution" to the team's success or failure.
- The player's "special qualities of leadership or public appeal."
- The performance and salary of any player alleged to be "comparable" to the player in the dispute.

Evidence that is not admissible:

- The salary and performance of a "comparable" player who signed a contract as an unrestricted free agent.
- Testimonials, video and media reports.
- The financial state of the team.
- The salary cap and the state of the team's payroll.

My blog two weeks ago highlighted what I thought a decent deal for each might be. The Vincent Trocheck, Reilly Smith and Victor Rask signings all are decent comps for Kreider, though many Rangers' fans believe that Kreider is better than Rask. Trochek, more so, Smith, less so, is better than Kreider, so a deal in the $4 to $4.5 mil range for Kreider may prove decent value.

Another recent applicable signing is Jaden Schwartz, who inked a five-year, $26.35 million deal last Friday. I think Schwartz is a better scorer than Kreider, who does have better advanced metrics than Schwartz. Over the weekend Alex Killlorn, also slated for arb, signed a seven-year deal with a $4.45 mil average annual value. Kreider in my view is better than Killorn, who like Kreider, has produced come playoff time. An additional decent comp for Kreider may be Marcus Johansson, who was awarded a one year, $3.75M contract last year in arbitration and was to go through the process again this season. Johansson and the Capitals reached an agreement on a three year deal with a $4.583 million average annual value.

Some prefer Kreider on a short-term, e.g., one-year deal, given his inconsistent nature. Two years would make little sense, since he would be an unrestricted free agent after it, so it either needs to be one year or at least three to four years.

Speculation is that Kreider will get three years for around what Johansson got, but I have heard some whispers that he would would want a larger per year mark.

Here are my predictions again for Kreider:

Kreider, 25, despite a slow start, matched his career high of 21 goals and added 22 assists in 79 games as he completed a two-year, $4.95 million deal. That deal was signed just before arbitration. If Kreider gets a one-year deal, he should go from $2.475 mil to around $3.5-4 mil. For two years, up that amount slightly to closer to $4-$4.25 mil. If New York opted for a 4-5 year deal, the look for a cap hit of around $4.75-$5.25 million.


Larry Brooks indicated in today's NY Post that "the parties are in ongoing negotiations concerning a four- or five-year deal that would buy out No. 20’s first two or three years of unrestricted free agency. It is believed the Rangers are offering in the neighborhood of $4.75 million per with Kreider seeking approximately $5.25 million per." That would be right in line with what I predicted above and a deal should be reachable somewhere in the middle of the range.
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