It's here, Kreider arb day. But just because it's here doesn't mean that the two sides will actually go to 9 am hearing. Plus, even if they do go to the hearing, nothing precludes them from reaching an accord. However, given what might be said by the Rangers at the hearing to keep the awarded figure down, the better course of action would be to find a way to sign a deal before the hearing.

The Rangers have not had a player go through an arbitration hearing since Nikolay Zherdev in 2009, when the Rangers walked away from his $3.9 million judgement, making him an unrestricted free agent. To date, New York has reached agreements with all the arb players save for Kreider and Kevin Hayes, who is scheduled for his arb hearing on July 27. Once Kreider is taken care of, then the focus will shift to Hayes.

Even if Kreider and the Rangers do go to arb, the likelihood is that arbitrator won't award Kreider the full $4.75 mil he is asking. Let's say per chance if he/she did, New York won't walk away, given the amount of cap space they currently have. Nor do I expect the Rangers to just have to pay the $3.2 mil they submitted, so expect an award, if we reach that point, in the $3.9-$4.1 million range.

Two years ago, the Rangers and Kreider settled on a two-year deal an hour before arbitration worth $2.35 million in year one and $2.60 million in year two for an average AAV of $2.475 mil. If you recall, Brandon Dubinsky and the Rangers agreed on four-year deal worth $16.8 million just minutes before arbitration. As Hockey Stat Miner pointed out, Dubinsky's contract was 6.53% of the cap per year. In 2016 terms, that'd be $4,768,274 per yr for Kreider. That figure is in line with what Larry Brooks reported that NY is rumored to be offering Kreider on a 4-5 deal, while Kreider reportedly asked for $5.25 mil. Other reports have the two sides far apart, though that could be in dollars, years or both. A long-term would made too much sense for each and hopefully sides find a common ground before the hearing.

I quote again what I wrote the other day:

I have run the below a few times but this they are applicable again. First is what can and cannot be mention in arb hearings, presuming no settlement prior. The two bolded items, one each in both sides of the ledger are interesting to note. Second is what I have predicted for Kreider salary using some recent comps, adding in what Marcus Johansson signed for today.

The evidence that can be used in arbitration cases:

- The player's "overall performance" including statistics in all previous seasons.
- Injuries, illnesses and the number of games played.
- The player's length of service with the team and in the NHL.
- The player's "overall contribution" to the team's success or failure.
- The player's "special qualities of leadership or public appeal."
- The performance and salary of any player alleged to be "comparable" to the player in the dispute.

Evidence that is not admissible:

- The salary and performance of a "comparable" player who signed a contract as an unrestricted free agent.
- Testimonials, video and media reports.
- The financial state of the team.
- The salary cap and the state of the team's payroll.

My blog two weeks ago highlighted what I thought a decent deal for each might be. The Vincent Trochek, Reilly Smith and Victor Rask signings all are decent comps for Kreider, though many Rangers' fans believe that Kreider is better than Rask. Trochek, more so, Smith, less so, is better than Kreider, so a deal in the $4-$4.5 mil range for Kreider may prove decent value.

Another recent applicable signing is Jaden Schwartz, who inked a five year, $26.35 mil deal last Friday. I think Schwartz is a better scorer than Kreider, who does have better advanced metrics than Schwartz. Over the weekend Alex Killlorn, also slated for arb, signed a seven-year deal with a $4.45 mil AAV. Kreider in my view is better than Killorn, who like Kreider, has produced come playoff time. An additional decent comp for Kreider may be Marcus Johansson, who was awarded 1 yr @ $3.75M contract last year in arbitration and was to go through the process again this season. Johansson and the Capitals reached an agreement on a three year deal with a $4.583 mil AAV.

Many prefer Kreider on a short-term, e.g., one-year deal, given his inconsistent nature. Two years would make little sense, since he would be an unrestricted free agent after it, so it either needs to be one year or at least 3-4 years. Speculation is that CK20 will get three years for around what Johansson got, but I have heard some whispers that Kreider would want a larger AAV.

Here are my predictions again for Kreider:

Kreider, 25, despite a slow start, matched his career high of 21 goals and added 22 assists in 79 games as he completed a two-year, $4.95 million deal. That deal was signed just before arbitration. If Kreider gets a one-year deal, he should go from $2.475 mil to around $3.5-4 mil. For two years, up that amount slightly to closer to $4-$4.25 mil. If New York opted for a 4-5 year deal, the look for a cap hit of around $4.75-$5.25 million.

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