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Game 1: NYR-PIT, Rangers Begin Chase for 2016 Cup Tonight

April 13, 2016, 6:54 PM ET [843 Comments]
Jan Levine
New York Rangers Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Once again, it's New York-Pittsburgh. Last year, the Rangers defeated a depleted Penguins team in five games, with each contest being a bit closer than many might have expected. Two years, the two sides met in the Division Finals with New York rallying from a 3-1 deficit to win the series. Pittsburgh got off to a lousy start, resulting in the firing of Mike Johnston and hiring of Mike Sullivan 28 games into the season. Since that move, the Penguins averaged 3.24 goals per game, keyed by the return to form of Sidney Crosby and acquisition of Carl Hagelin for David Perron. Pittsburgh closed the season 14-2 in their last 16, including their loss to Philadelphia on Saturday; 33-11-5 since Dec. 21. New York got off to a tremendous start but struggled from mid-November to early-January. The Rangers righted the ship for a while before struggling again down the stretch and finishing three points behind the Penguins for third in the Metro.

All the rhetoric, hyperbole and written/spoken words (yes, I know, I was guilty of it too and will be guilty of it later in this article) ends at 8 pm tonight when the puck is dropped. When that happens, pretty much everything written can be tossed in the trash, since game action has started. This is the best time of year, Playoff Hockey Time. After the changes during the off- and in-season, slow start and hot play thereafter was just a lead-in to the second season. This is where making or the failure to make the simple play, the dump in and the chase, the dive to keep a puck in or get it out of your zone, the picking up your man in the neutral zone or in your own zone to prevent him from cruising down the slot, can be the difference between winning and losing.

Can you feel it? It’s that tangible feeling that’s a low roar in NY right now, limited to us, the faithful, who follow this team day in and day out, night in and night out, though ironically the weather is more Fall-like than Spring-like, but right now, that pales in comparison to how we feel as the playoffs kick off. That feeling will build if/when (I hope) the Rangers move to the next round. As they hopefully move up the ladder, the bandwagon will get bigger and bigger, until the City feels ready to explode with excitement and anticipation. All that is in the future, the here and now is to worry and take care of the Penguins.

I gave my behind the numbers article Tuesday, some of which will be referenced, and will post my overall Cup predictions shortly. I am sure I could go and on, but what’s the point. We all know that information already, or if now, we will hear it over and over during the series. For this column, I will limit it to the various line combinations with some brief comments after them.

To help get you ready for the playoffs, enjoy the below videos:

First, some videos to raise the anticipation level a bit more.

Hockey Night in Canada 2015 Playoff Opening Montage



(winning and hoisting the Cup)

ajcastiglia:
"The King & All His Men" NYR 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs:



Patrick Junjulas:
New York Rangers 2015-2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs - "Keep On Wanting"



donnybrah YT
"Uprising" - 2016 New York Rangers Playoff Pump-Up Video



Metrangerfan71:
"This Means War" | 2016 New York Rangers Playoffs:



Rangers:

Forwards:
61 Rick Nash - 16 Derick Brassard - 10 J. T. Miller
20 Chris Kreider - 21 Derek Stepan - 36 Mats Zuccarello
12 Eric Staal - 13 Kevin Hayes - 19 Jesper Fast
25 Viktor Stalberg- 28 Dominic Moore - 15 Tanner Glass

Extras: Oscar Lindberg (healthy, if Glass or Stalberg struggle, Lindberg will get in. I expect to play during the series, likely on the third line with Fast moving down to the fourth line) and Marek Hrivik (called up Wednesday, as Viktor Stalberg may be dealing with a lower body injury, so Hrivik could replace him)

(The Rangers finished seventh in the league in scoring despite struggling at times during the year. New York was streaky, mixing big scoring games with stretches where they were futile offensively. AV finally seems to have four lines he is comfortable with, but that doesn't mean he won't shift personnel around in the team struggles.
Up front, New York was led by Mats Zuccarello, who rebounded from his scary injury in last year’s Game 5 against Pittsburgh to tally 26 goals and 35 assists. His linemate Derick Brassard, who has shown the ability raise his game in the playoffs, had 27 goals and 31 assists while J.T. Miller, the physical part of this trio, had a breakout campaign with 22 goals and 21 assists. The second line is Derek Stepan (a career-high 22 goals and 33 assists; sixth straight season of 40+ points to start his career), Chris Kreider (rebounding from a horrific start to tally 21 goals, including six his last eight and 10 in his final 20 games of the season) and Rick Nash (who missed 22 games with a knee injury and posted a paltry 36 points in 60, including three in 15 since returning from the injury).

Eric Staal was brought in at the trade deadline to give NY a solid third line center and playoff performer. He tallied just six points in 20 games and fortunately, the neck injury he suffered when colliding with Jesper Fast doesn’t appear to be serious. The Rangers are better when Staal plays left wing, allowing Kevin Hayes to slot in at center, where is more comfortable. Fast, who is defensively responsible and ballasts Hayes' deficiencies there, will likely be the third member of this line. It's possible, as I noted above, that Lindberg plays there with Fast on the fourth line. The bottom three has better fairly solid since the trio of Viktor Stalberg-Dominic Moore-Tanner Glass was put together. I realize that Glass is the player everyone loves to hate but he has done his job fairly well, even though the advanced metrics don't show that. If he or Stalberg struggle, Fast would slide down as noted just above. The top two lines will need to try and at least play the Pens' top-six to a draw and hope New York's bottom six outplay Pittsburgh's).



Defense
93 Keith Yandle - 8 Kevin Klein
18 Marc Staal - 5 Dan Girardi
76 Brady Skjei - 22 Dan Boyle

Extras: Ryan McDonagh (recovering from broken metacarpals in right hand, suffered on April 4 while blocking a Brandon Dubinsky slapshot. Timeframe for return is unclear but the belief is that he will be back sometime during this series. Hopefully he is back by Game 3) and Dylan McIlrath (healthy).

(Other than McDonagh, which is a huge loss, the Rangers enter the playoffs mainly healthy on the blue line. Girardi missed the last few games with a possible concussion after getting boarded by Brian Boyle, but he is ready to go.

Remember when the Rangers’ defense was the envy of the league? Me too. But the physical breakdowns coupled with their lack of speed and inability to cover the front of the net has made that group a shell of their former self. The team’s task is even more difficult with McDonagh sidelined at least the first few games of this round due to his broken metacarpals suffered when blocking Brandon Dubinsky’s shot on April 4.

In his absence, Staal, who has had an uneven year, has received and thrived with more responsibility. Yandle, the team’s best offensive d-man but who can be prone to mistakes in his own zone, will be paired with Klein, though Klein’s play has regressed after a strong start to the year. That duo will get the joy of marking the Kessel-Hagelin speed line. Girardi, who has regressed due to injuries coupled with ineffective play, will be paired with Staal, with that duo charged in handling Sidney Crosby's line, a task that Staal has readily accepted the past two seasons. If New York can somehow come out even in that matchup, it would go a long way to the team winning the series.

With McD out, Skjei who has grown as he seen more game action, dresses Wednesday opposite old-man river Dan Boyle. Skjei restores the lefty-righty balance AV loves and his puck moving skills and speed will be counted on heavily paired with Boyle. McD likely replaces Skjei or Boyle when he returns and will be paired with Klein. AV could opt to play Dylan McIlrath, who brings a physical presence, but McI may only get in if one of the other six are out or if Boyle/Skjei struggle).


Goaltending
30 Henrik Lundqvist
20 Antti Raanta

(Lundqvist posted 35 wins and a .920 SV% but he had a 2.48 GAA and was pulled from eight games this year, all of which came following his brilliant start to the season. The poor own zone coverage, especially in front of the net, left Lundqvist to handle a ridiculously high percentage of in close shots. If New York is to get the win, Lundqvist will have to stand on his hand and then some. Antti Raanta, who rallied after a lousy start, but should only play if Lundqvist really falters and is pulled, backs up Lundqvist).


Penguins

Forwards
14 Chris Kunitz - 87 Sidney Crosby - 72 Patric Hornqvist
62 Carl Hagelin - 13 Nick Bonino - 81 Phil Kessel
34 Tom Kuhnhackl- 7 Matt Cullen- 16 Eric Fehr
43 Conor Sheary- 40 Oskar Sundqvist- 17 Bryan Rust

Scratches - Evgeni Malkin (sidelined since March 13 with an upper body, likely a shoulder, injury, could be back sometime during this series). Tom Sestito (could be used to provide a physical element and edge on the fourth line like Glass) and Beau Bennett (possible bottom six option).

(Crosby got off to such a slow start there were whispers that he was done. Well, so much for that, as Crosby finished with 29 points his last 20 games and 85 in 80 on the year. Like Crosby, his linemates Patric Hornqvist and Chris Kunitz also got off to rough starts, but each rallied, with Hornqvist ending up with 22 goals and Kunitz with 17.

What really carried the Penguins was their second line. Phil Kessel, the team’s big offseason acquisition, got off to a horrible start, but the addition of Hagelin provided speed on the other wing, giving Kessel room. Hagelin had 27 points in 37 games as a Penguin, including 13 his last 13 games of the year. Kessel scored 30 points since Hagelin joined the team as well as 13 his last 13 games. Malkin was replaced ably by Bonino, who scored 15 points in 13 games down the stretch. Malkin might be back during the first round, as he was expected to miss a month or so when he injured.

What really helped Pittsburgh was the play of their bottom six. The names aren’t big but Kuhnhackl-Cullen-Fehr and Sheary-Sundqvist-Rust have chipped in offensively while also solidifying and lengthening the lineup. Those lines have brought some speed along with a solid forecheck. The top two lines are extremely dangerous, so expect the top-two d-pairings to match up against them, shielding the third pairing).



Defense
6 Trevor Daley- 58 Kris Letang
8 Brian Dumoulin - 12 Ben Lovejoy
28 Ian Cole - 4 Justin Schultz

Healthy Scratches - Derrick Pouliot (possible option if Cole struggles)
Injured: Olli Maatta (lower body injury, could be back during the series)

(Defensively, it all begins and ends with Letang, who had 67 points in 71 games. His offensive brilliance overshadows his willingness to take the body and block shots. Daley, acquired for Rob Scuderi in a steal of a trade, replaced the injured Maatta on Letang’s left. Daley had a rebound campaign, chipping in a bit offensively while playing a steady defense. Maatta, out since March 24 with a lower-body injury, may return for the first round, though little is known about his status. With Maatta out, Brian Dumoulin and Ben Lovejoy is the likely second pairing with Ian Cole and Justin Schultz, brought in from Edmonton at the trade deadline, the third pairing. Schultz’s offensive skills fit in well with the Penguins and he could be an X-factor this round. Pouliot is the extra d-man).

Goaltenders
29 Marc-Andre Fleury
30 Matt Murray
37 Jeff
Tristan Jarry

(Fleury missed the last five games of the regular season with a concussion. His numbers, after a rough start like the rest of the team, mirrored last season’s, as he went 35-17-6 with a 2.29 GAA and .921 SV%. Fleury was on ice Monday AM and it looks like he might play in Game 1 Wednesday, though that is not assured. Murray was moved to the #1 spot when Fleury went down and he won his last six starts before being forced from Saturday’s name with either a neck injury or concussion. His status is unknown. If MAF and Murray are out, Zatkoff will start in net, and if that happens in Game 1, it almost becomes a must win for the Rangers. (Late note: Zatkoff starts, Jarry the backup, MAF and Murray out) For Pitt to win, Fleury will have to be solid but may not need to stand on his head, like he did last year).

PP Units:

PP1: Yandle-Zuccarello-Stepan-Brassard-Kreider
PP2: Boyle-McDonagh-Nash-Staal-Miller

(While Pittsburgh had the edge on the power play, the net difference is six goals - or one every 13 games - and 35 chances. The Penguins finished 16th in the league in terms of PP success % and 15th goals while New York was 14th and 23rd, respectively. The Penguins still have a large home-road success disparity, though not as bad as last year, when the spread was 5.6 per cent. Letang, Malkin and Crosby were all monsters on the PP, aided by Kessel and Hornqvist. Daley has seen time at the other point, especially with Malkin out, while Kunitz or Bonino could see time down low.

The Rangers PP has taken a major turn for the positive the last 25 games or so. After languishing much of the season. AV and Scott Arniel finally turned Keith Yandle loose. In addition, Derick Brassard was allowed to go from the point down the wing when needed while Kreider finally used his big body to screen goalies. In addition, Stepan and Zuccarello were on the half-boards and in, taking advantage of the crisper passing from side-to-side, resulting in more opportunities. The Rangers will rotate Brassard and Zucc at times, though Brassard's point shot gives him the edge up top. New York still struggles at time to initially gain the zone cleanly, though Yandle has helped in that regard. If/when Ryan McDonagh returns, he will man the point, likely on the second PP. They will be challenged by a strong Pitt penalty killing unit that finished third in the league).


Pittsburgh: (not set in stone)
PP1 - Letang-Daley-Kessel-Crosby-Kunitz PP2 - Hornqvist replacing Kunitz, Schultz in for Daley and Bonino possibly in as well. When Malkin returns, look for Kunitz or Kessel to drop down to the second unit, creating more balance among the two sets of five.

(The Penguins have a big edge shorthanded, both in terms of the ability to shut down the opponents' PP, as you will see below, and in scoring while down a man. Pittsburgh had 11 shorthanded goals, second in the league, while New York, had three, all scored by Stepan. The Rangers have struggled shorthanded, but have been slightly better lately. With McDonagh out, look for Stepan-Nash and Klein-Girardi as one unit with Moore-Stalberg and Girardi-Staal or maybe Skjei-Staal as the other. These could be the matchups that decides the series.)

Playoff Schedule:

Pittsburgh Penguins (M2) vs. New York Rangers (M3)

G1 Wed., April 13 NY Rangers @ Pittsburgh, 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT, USA, Sportsnet, TVA
G2 Sat., April 16 NY Rangers @ Pittsburgh, 3 p.m. ET/12 p.m. PT, NBC, CBC, TVA
G3 Tue., April 19 Pittsburgh @ NY Rangers, 7 p.m. ET/4 p.m. PT, USA, Sportsnet, TVA
G4 Thu., April 21 Pittsburgh @ NY Rangers, TBD, USA, Sportsnet, TVA
G5* Sat., April 23 NY Rangers @ Pittsburgh, TBD, TBD
G6* Mon., April 25 Pittsburgh @ NY Rangers, TBD, TBD
G7* Wed., April 27 NY Rangers @ Pittsburgh, TBD, TBD

Possible Unsung Heroes:
We all know how important Nash, Brassard, Stepan, Kreider and Hank are to the Rangers as well as Crosby, Kessel, Malkin (when he returns), Hornqvist and Fleury are to the Penguins. In addition, the play of blueline, especially McDonagh, when he returns, and Letang is a key. I want to focus on two players each, while not unsung, may be keys to the series.

For the Rangers, it's Yandle and Miller. Yandle will be counted on to replace what NY is missing in McDonagh. I almost went with Skjei, as he will be a major key, but Yandle's ability to get out of his trouble with his skating and stick handling could help drive at least one win this series. Miller provides a physical presence and has taken a major step forward this season. He allows Zucc to stay on the second line and Fast on the third line with Staal and Hayes. If he plays well, then no changes need to be made and the chemistry that has been built up lately can remain.

For Pitt. it's Hagelin and Daley. Hagelin, as Rangers fans know, has provided Pittsburgh with tremendous speed alongside Kessel. In addition, he has scored better than expected and is a key member of the penalty kill. Daley gives the Penguins another puck moving d-man as well as one who has Cup experience. With Maatta out, the team's reliance on Daley has grown and for the most part he has responded.

Edges:

Even-Strength - two teams are basically dead even

PP - Pitt has more goals and opportunities but Rangers a slightly better percentage

PK - huge edge for Pittsburgh

Forwards - with Malkin out, Rangers have more depth but Pittsburgh has edge in higher end skill players. If the Blueshirts can roll four lines and get scoring from third, give them the edge. That said, the Penguins were dominant scoring wise after Sullivan took over.

Defense - Rangers slightly though closer than one would think. If McD can be back by Game 3 and close to usual self, NY gets bigger edge by a wide margin, partially aided by all the injuries on the Pitt blue line.

Goalie - Rangers, because of Hank, even though he hasn't always been great. Fleury had another solid year but could be rusty after missing time with injury. Gap grows if Fleury and/or Murray are sidelined. If NY gets off to a strong start, that gap widens.

Playoff Experience - lots of experience on both teams. Hagelin now sees the rivalry from both sides as does Sullivan. No real edge to either team, New York has 10 forwards who played key roles, five d-men, even without McD, and Lundqvist back who went to the Eastern Conference Finals last year. Pitt has a handful of players that were on the team when they fell to NY last year.

Coaching - edge to Rangers as AV has been to the Finals twice before though Sullivan had playoff experience under Torts

Intangibles - so many open questions. McDonagh. Malkin. Maatta. Past history. Last kick at the can. Can Nash score in playoffs? Hagelin on other side. Pretty even between the teams.

Prediction - Penguins winning in six.

My heart says Rangers, my head says Pittsburgh, whose strong puck possession skills and Rangers’ issues defensively there give the Penguins the edge. But if McD an be back by Game 3, my view changes.

This time of year, you need to play hard and pay attention for every second you are on the ice, one slip up or lapse in concentration could mean the difference between winning a series and advancing or losing and going home.

It’s go time. Let’s Go Rangers!!! The Drive to the Stanley Cup begins tonight.
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