Today is series #3 and the final series preview blog, consisting of special teams, unsung heroes and the edges in the series along with my overall prediction. Tuesday, I posted my forwards breakdown and Wednesday, I posted my defense and goalies breakdown.
Here are the last two videos summarizing the first round win over Montreal to raise the anticipation level a bit more and help get you ready for the Eastern Conference Semifinals..
PK1: Stepan and Nash, McDonagh and Girardi
PK2: Grabner and Fast (Hayes and Zibanejad) Staal and Smith
(New York and Ottawa finished 11th and 23rd in PP success during the regular season at 20.2% and 17.0%. They were separated by 20 more attempts for Ottawa and two more goals by the Rangers. The Rangers closed strong on the man-advantage, going 13-for-38 on the power play in their final 15 games. They were 1-for-40 in 15 games from Feb. 7-March 7.
New York started the post-season 0-for-14 before getting their one goal in the critical Game 6 win. AV mixed up the combinations, inserting Buchnevich on the power play when he was added to the lineup starting in game four. Prior to that, the Rangers PP was comprised of the combinations that were in place when it took a major turn for the positive the last 15 games or so. After languishing much of the season, New York finally better adopted puck and player movement while using Kreider as a big screen in front. Zibanejad's right-handed one-timer from the left dot is a huge weapon, plus using Skjei more often has helped as well. In addition, Stepan and Zuccarello were on the half-boards and in, taking advantage of the crisper passing from side-to-side, resulting in more opportunities.
New York still struggles at time to initially gain the zone cleanly, which was the case way too often against Montreal. Plus, as I said last blog, for the love of all that is holy, please don't use the drop pass back to the "rushing" d-man. Either dump it softly deep to the open wing and crash or use passing to get the zone and then move the puck quickly once in the zone to set up. The Ottawa PK isn't overly special, as they finished 22nd in the league (4th at home, 28th on the road) during the year at 79.6%).
Ottawa: (not set in stone)
PP1 - Ryan - Brassard - MacArthur -Hoffman - Karlsson
PP2 - Stone - Turris - Burrows - Phaneuf - Ceci/Wideman (Karlsson sometimes plays both depending on situation)
(For Ottawa, the PP is all predicated on Karlsson creating space and then feeding Brassard, or Hoffman for one-timers with Ryan creating traffic in front. The return of MacArthur gives the Senators another presence down low and in the slot. On the second pairing, it’s Phaneuf from the point and one-timers by Stone. In the postseason, they scored five power play goals in 23 chances (21.7 percent) against the Bruins.
The Rangers have a very slight edge shorthanded, as New York finished 19th in the league at 79.8 while Ottawa was 22nd but at 79.6%, a miniscule difference. In the first round, New York allowed a pair of power play goals in Game 3 and were shut out most of the rest of the series, save for a goal in game 5, to finish 17-for-20 shorthanded. Their two biggest kills might have been in the second period of Game 5 to keep the score 2-1 Montreal. They will need to try and control Karlsson at the point and avoid giving Brassard, Hoffman and Stone space for their one-timers. Ottawa surrendered three power play goals in 16 chances against the Bruins for a success rate of 81.3 percent.
During the year, the Rangers had nine shorthanded goals, spurred by Grabner, and one in game 5 by Fast while the Senators had seven. New York gets burned when cheating to try and get a shorthanded chance, which will kill the Rangers if it leaves Karlsson open at the point to create one-time chances of find Ryan down low or MacArthur in the slot.)
Possible Unsung Heroes:
We all know how important Nash, Zuccarello, McDonagh and Hank are to the Rangers as well as Karlsson, Hoffman and Anderson are to the Senators. I want to focus on two players each, while not unsung, may be keys to the series.
For the Rangers, it's Zib, Kreider/Miller and Smith. Zib has to keep his emotions in check and avoid trying to outdo Derick Brassard in order to justify the trade. He came on late in the Montreal series and will need to build on that in this round. Kreider and Miller were mostly invisible against the Canadiens but New York found a way to win. If one or both can get hot, the Rangers will be in a much better stead against Ottawa. Smith’s nasty streak and steady play helped turn the first round in New York’s favor. If he can repeat that and to log heavy minutes along with Skjei, likely 20+ in each game, taking pressure off McD, New York stands a good chance of winning.
For Ottawa, it's MacArthur, Ryan and Phanuef. MacArthur just returned from his concussion woes but he had the game- and series-winner in Game 6 against the Bruins. Ryan struggled dueing the year but flipped the switch in the first round. If he stays hot, Staal and Holden will be able to be protected on the third pairing. Phaneuf will need to handle major minutes with Ceci to take pressure off Karlsson and Methot. I view Macarthur as a major X-factor since he lengthens the lineup and provides secondary scoring.
Edges:
Even-Strength - Edge possession wise during the regular season was slightly in favor of Ottawa while in the post-season, it was more substantial, but in the first round, Ottawa had a slight edge in 5x5 goal-scoring 10-9 over New York
PP - Just about net even, but slight edge to Ottawa wit Ryan hot and MacArthur back
PK - Slight edge to New York during regular season, a bit more during playoffs, as noted above
Forwards - The Rangers have better depth throughout the lineup, as they can roll four lines. Ottawa, with the return of MacArthur and performance of Ryan, now has three good lines and a fourth line that chips in occasionally. Edge to the Rangers.
Defense - The presence of Karlsson means that Ottawa has the elite d-man. Methot, Methot, Phaneuf and Ceci round out theor top-four. McDonagh played at an elite level last round while Girardi rebounded. Skjei and Smith round out NY’s top-four, which may be better than the Senators’. Both teams’ third pairing is weak, though New York’s has more experience. Slight edge to New York due to overall depth, but if Ottawa goes Claesson/Harpur that gap narrows.
Goalie - Slight to New York due to Lundqvist. However, Anderson has been excellent these playoffs, and when he was able to play in the regular season, actually had much better numbers than Hank. But Lundqvist looks to be back to his old form, giving him a slight, slight edge..
Playoff Experience - New York has much more overall experience than Ottawa and there are a handful of players remaining from when the teams met in 2012.
Coaching - Edge to Vigneault who has reached the Stanley Cup Finals and has more playoff experience. Boucher took Tampa to the ECF one year but has less overall experience and winning pedigree than AV.
Intangibles - Ottawa may be the media darling due to the human interest stories of Anderson, MacArthur and Karlsson. Add in the Brassard-Zib back story and you have several points that the press will likely highlight. Is this Lundqvist’s and the Rangers last chance at a Cup? Can New York break through the 1-3-1 and will they be able to adjust from the change in mindset from hunter to hunted and underdog to favorite?
Prediction - Rangers winning in six, though wouldn't be surprised to see it go seven.
The Rangers offensive depth makes all the difference while Lundqvist continues to play at a high level. New York will lose their patience and discipline at times but retain enough to eke out four wins over a very tough to beat Ottawa team headed by Karlsson and Anderson, who steals 1-2 games this series.
This time of year, you need to play hard and pay attention for every second you are on the ice, one slip up or lapse in concentration could mean the difference between winning a series and advancing or losing and going home.
It’s go time. Let’s Go Rangers!!! The Drive to the Stanley Cup continues tonight.
Playoff Schedule:
Ottawa Senators (A2) vs. New York Rangers (WC1)
Thursday, April 27, 7pm: NY Rangers @ Ottawa | CNBC, CBC, TVA Sports
Saturday, April 29, 3pm: NY Rangers @ Ottawa | NBC, CBC, TVA Sports
Tuesday, May 2, 7pm: Ottawa @ NY Rangers | NBCSN, CBC, TVA Sports
Thursday, May 4, 7:30pm: Ottawa @ NY Rangers | NBCSN, CBC, TVA Sports
*Saturday, May 6, TBD: NY Rangers @ Ottawa | TBD
*Tuesday, May 9, TBD: Ottawa @ NY Rangers | TBD
*Thursday, May 11, TBD: NY Rangers @ Ottawa | TBD
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