Despite all the evidence, or what looked like evidence to the contrary, as of this morning and even early this afternoon, I still felt the Rangers would find a way to get a deal done with Ryan Callahan and also Dan Girardi. Even though they were a reported two years and $12 million apart, as Callahan wanted seven years and $42 million while the Rangers were at five and $30, I believed that a common ground could be found. Maybe it was folly or wishful thinking, but the following item on ESPN New York.com gave me a semblance of what now looks like false hope.
"I'm going to circle back with the Rangers this week," Callahan's agent Steve Bartlett told ESPNNewYork.com when reached by phone Monday morning. The league was abuzz last week about the possibility of Callahan being dealt, but the speculation has simmered down in recent days.
To me, that quote and subsequent statement by Katie Strang meant that while the Rangers were doing their due diligence while playing chicken in determining the level of interest in a Callahan deal, there still was the fall back position that a contract could be agreed to. Even if none could be agreed to now, then the Blueshirts would hold on to their captain rather than dealing him by their self-imposed Friday deadline and try and augment their playoff chances. rather than minimizing the downside risk of holding and watching Callahan leave for nothing at year end.
I guess I should have been smarter when the following blurb was posted in the Ottawa Sun yesterday, rather than dismissing it immediately because it was by Bruce Garrioch. In addition, no one else had really reported that Callahan wanted that kind of money, not Larry Brooks, not Darren Dreger, not Bob MacKenzie, but as well see later, how right he looks to be.
The talk is Callahan wants a seven-year deal worth $6.85 million per-season (that’s exactly what Patrice Bergeron got with Boston) and it’s doubtful the Rangers will pony up. The Blues, Wings and Kings all need help up front.
While the nail in the coffin came out Sunday, the next one came out Sunday by Craig Custance of ESPN. Not that what he said in the first half of the article was so damning, but it was the question posed by a reader and the response that really has to make you think and ask why that is the case. In the first half, Custance points out the challenges in a Callahan deal, why opening the market may not have been the worst idea in the world and my perception is that Custance's view is that despite the Callahan situation being what it is, given where they are in the standings and how big of a component he is to the team, they should not deal him now.
If it’s strictly a negotiating ploy by the Rangers to lower the asking price, there’s risk there too. Pierre LeBrun reported that Callahan’s camp is seeking a seven-year deal worth $6 million per season. It’s a steep price for a winger with a history of injuries and a skill set that typically doesn’t age well. Even so, with a rising salary cap and talent at a premium, the expectation is that it’s a contract demand in line with what he could land.
The end of the first half and question for the second half is where it gets interesting. Custance indicates the major reason for the furor and hubbub surrounding Callahan is that it has:
escalated because New York is trying to get a player to accept less than what he might get on the open market, without much success.
This leads us to the question Custance answered: Why do the Rangers typically end up paying a premium for all their players? Custance goes into great detail as to who signed with their current teams at a "hometown discount," highlighting the recent Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau deals. In addition, you look at Detroit and Vancouver and what they have been able to do and it makes you shake your head and ask why is it not the case in NY. When you look back at who the Rangers have been able to retain and/or who they bring in, it's normally at a premium.
Even the Henrik Lundqvist deal, while it's great he re-upped, there was no hometown discount. By giving him $8.5 million per season for seven years, there was no discount, even if he could have gotten the same money and years on the open market. Custance compared his deal to Jonathan Quick, who is making $3 mil less a year. Even Tuukka Rask, who is much younger, is making $1.5 mil less a year. The only possible discount is Ryan McDonagh, though Sather broke his mold of offering bridge contracts by signing him long-term at bigger dollars.
Maybe it is, as others pointed out, that the players are tired of those bridge deals. Possibly its they see how the Rangers spend willy nilly in free agency, albeit a bit less that before given the salary cap, but the signed Marian Gaborik to a big deal coming off an injury. They opened the bank to sign Brad Richards, even though he could have received more elsewhere and the team needed a top center, while already trading several assets to get Rick Nash and his $7.8 million salary. It's possible that those that have battled Sather over the bridge deals see the opportunity to cash in big in unrestricted free agency, so the allure of Broadway and heavy taxes in NY are less appealing that the dollars elsewhere.
Then today came the other two shoes to fall. Darren Dreger and Kevin Weekes:
Dreger, “He wants a lot of money. It’s been widely reported that Ryan Callahan wants a seven-year term around $6 million per, well that isn’t accurate and I am told that it is more than $6.5 million per on a seven-year term and less than $7 million. Whether it’s $6 or as we know now, it’s closer to $7 million, it’s a lot of money and too much for the New York Rangers. There is not a lot of wiggle room in this negotiation and that is why Glen Sather is considering and working towards moving his captain."
Weekes, “I’m told from speaking to people with New York that he is seeking a seven-year deal between $6 million and $7 million, closer to the $7 million, which I think, I am a big Ryan Callahan fan, is a little bit expensive. The Rangers think that at this point and it’s interesting to see where that goes, especially since he is a New York State native, from Rochester, captain of the Rangers and will be playing for Team USA.”
Even if we originally believed that even though the two sides were two years and $12 million apart, there was still room for a deal. These two bits of news coupled with the Ottawa Sun post likely squashes that possibility. Sather has now backed his way into corner. If he doesn't deal him, he loses some credibility within the marketplace and his own team, though it's feasible, as Glen Miller pointed out, that "self-imposed" deadline was leaked by another team to force Sather's hand, which could be his out. Right now, I would the shot at Callahan remaining a Ranger at 25% and his being gone by Friday at 60%. Show up Tuesday or Thursday at MSG, because there is better than an even chance he won't be one either Friday in Pittsburgh or after the Olympics.
Girardi:
If the news on Callahan is downright distressing, the latest information on Girardi is really disconcerting. Not because one is that much more valued but more so because of the view that Girardi is needed more because of the position he plays and because a deal looks to be fairly imminent. Darren Dreger said the following on TSN Drive tonight:
"The Rangers were hoping to have Dan Girardi’s contract wrapped up this week but as of today that seems like a long shot… if a deal isn’t done it could send a message to the Rangers that Girardi wants to test free agency. The Rangers need to pay attention to what is going on with Girardi. If Girardi doesn’t come to terms this week with the New York Rangers and avoids the potential of unrestricted free agency. Perhaps that then sends a message to Glen Sather that he is going to UFA and he then joins Ryan Callahan in the trade speculation.”
Last week, Larry Brooks reported that the Rangers have two offers out to Girardi. One offer is six-years at $5.2 million per season and the other offer is five-years worth $5.7 million per season. Granted by going to free agency, Girardi likely could get more money and maybe more years, but he does give up some of the comfort of being in NY. We speak about loyalty in sports and rail when owners don’t show it, but lately, it's been more the other way, where the players doesn’t show it due to all the money that's out there. This may be the case, where the lure of big money outweighs the comforts of being in the same place a player basically grew up, playing their whole career with an Original Six team, on Broadway in front of passionate fans.
The next few days will be very interesting, anyone have an Pepto handy?
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