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Take That, Hockey World - or - The Florida Panthers are Awesome!

November 28, 2016, 11:40 AM ET [353 Comments]
James Tanner
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The fact that this won't be well received in the 'Hockey World' is the best news of all.

The Hockey World consists of ex-players, sycophant media types and people who've gotten rich from the game, and they are very resistant to change or anyone new trying to enter their world through any kind of back-channel.

The idea that rich tech-oriented people bought the Florida Panthers and want to be at the forefront of a revolution is revolting to people like this.

These are the same people who recycle the same coaches and GMs ad nauseam. These are the people who are scared that the way they've been trained, indoctrinated and employed will all change because of 'math nerds.'

They are right to be scared.



Look at any NHL broadcast and notice how often the announcers talk about plus/minus and faceoffs, despite it being almost a decade since math proved both those things are nearly irrelevant. (Yes, faceoffs do matter. They just don't matter nearly as much as they are talked about, since they have almost zero correlation with winning. Plus/Minus is such a bad stat you'd be better off tracking what colour socks a player wore on game day. )

Look at how teams are deployed - most still go top-six scoring / bottom-six checking. Most do not play their fourth line nearly enough. Most will overpay for a high-shooting percentage season and cut players with low shooting percentages and better peripherals.

This despite the fact we now know that 'defensive specialists' tend to be less effective at defense than offensive players who can keep the puck in the other end.

We know it's probably better to shoot more and pass less. That 'stay-at-home' defensemen are next to useless. That process trumps results. That a player can go 13 games without a goal (Auston Matthews) and not be in a slump because he still gets an elite level of shots and scoring chances.

We know that Kris Russel and Dan Girardi are bad players. We know that Brad Boyes and Lee Stempniak are good players. That Marc Arcobello should be in the NHL. We know that shot volume is what really matters. We know that........well I could go on.

The point is, that some, nee most, of these ideas are shunned by the people who work in the mainstream media and the hockey elite because recognizing them would mean a top-down reorganization of how they do nearly everything.



We know that the it's easier to stick with the status quo than it is to risk changing.

We know that ideas about plus/minus, faceoffs and possession; ideas about players like Gudbranson, etc. are mocked and ignored by media who need access to the old-school hockey elites in order to do their jobs.

Not to mention it's easier for mainstream media types like Millard, Simmons et al. to mock new thinking that it is to try and learn something new.

Despite the overall negative viewpoint most old-school hockey people have of anything that challenges their dogma, we've seen nearly every team adopt analytics to one degree or another - though in some cases it appears to be nothing but obligatory.

One only need to watch the viral video of Peter Chiarelli, Don Sweeney and their yes-men discussing the Seguin trade to understand how ingrained bad, illogical, non-critical thinking is with people who assume that because they are 'experts' they shouldn't listen to anyone else.

You could look to the way in which the media isn't overly critical of such monumentally stupid trades like Taylor Hall for Adam Larsson or P.K Subban for Shea Weber.

Or notice how Hockey Night in Canada or TSN haven't hired anyone for their broadcasts who can talk about the game like it's 2016 and not 1996.

Despite their resistance by people who can't figure out that hitting and blocking shots isn't going to help your team as much as you think because it means you don't have the puck, Analytics have still caught on quite a bit because the math checks out.

Smart people have gotten jobs. Slowly.

Kyle Dubas got hired in Toronto. Awesome. But then in comes Lou Lamoriello to marginalize him. The Coyotes hired John Chayka, also awesome. But then they make Dave Tippett his boss, trying to have it both ways. In both cases there have been problems.



But bless those Florida Panthers.

Unencumbered by anything, since they were bought by hands-on owners who are interested in doing things differently, the Panthers went out and had the best off-season of any team in the NHL.

They acquired puck-moving dynamo Keith Yandle and the underrated Jonathan Marchessault. They duped Vancouver and Buffalo into making ridiculously favorable trades (for FLA) and they also signed Jason Demers.

It was a controversial summer hailed by people enamored with analytics, and crapped all over by those who don't. Say what you will, Gudbranson is your prototypical huge, punishing, stay-at-home defender. He's a top draft pick and a pillar of the community. Massively popular among his teammates, etc. so it took some balls to move him.

But credit the team for having the guts to follow through with its convictions.

And while the Hockey World might be mad that one of their own was just sacrificed at the alter of hockey data, consider that Gallant was the coach of the old Panthers regime.

He was clearly always going to be let go, and a quarter of the season in, with the team not having the favorable results they expected, the time is right. It isn't his fault that Jagr, Barkov and Ekblad have seen their shooting percentages drop drastically. It isn't his fault that Ekblad has zero assists. Or that Huberdeau has missed the entire years.

It's not his fault most of the Hockey World doesn't realize the Panthers success last season was partially, if not mostly, because of favorable results. Or how easy it would have been for them - considering their shaky attendance - to stick with that.

Firing Gallant just happens to be convenient right now. Healthy players will return, the shooting percentages will normalize and being one of the best possession teams in hockey will pay off. The optics will then make the Panthers look good. These aren't stupid people, they know exactly how to play this.

And sure, this might anger some old-school types. But that's a good thing. A closed system that recycles the same ideas and people is always a bad thing. New blood is good. New ideas are important.

Not all old-school hockey dogma is wrong. Not all new ideas will prove to be revolutionary. But as the history of literally everything will show you, those who cling to the past get left behind.

The Panthers may not win the Cup. They will be mocked if they don't finish extremely high in the standings. People will be actively cheering against them, and, as stupid is it is, they will become the standard bearer, the litmus test, for analytics.

But thankfully, the NHL at least has one franchise that isn't afraid to look at the Brian Burkes, the Darren Millards and the George McPhees and not care one iota what they think.

Give it time. This is the new NHL. The Panthers will eventually force other teams to operate in much more intelligent ways.

The Don Maloneys and the Peter Chiarellis aren't long for this league and we can't say goodbye to them fast enough.

Thanks for reading.
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