The case for keeping Dylan Strome out of the NHL next season seems pretty obvious: the Coyotes are likely not a Playoff team with him in the lineup anyways, they would be burning a year of his entry-level contract and - the biggest and most cited reason - he may have his growth as a hockey player stunted by coming to the NHL too early.
The case is so solid, so 'open and shut,' that virtually everyone assumes that Dylan Strome will be going back to the OHL next season to play with the Erie Otters.
Were I a betting man, my money would be on Dylan Strome returning to the OHL, as the best prediction of future behavior is past behavior and that tends to be the Maloney/Tippett way.
Is this, however, the right decision?
Just to play Devils Advocate, let us go through the arguments that it is not the right decision to send him back to junior.
Keeping Strome in the NHL vol.1 of 39
If he doesn't make the Coyotes, Dylan Strome would have to play another year in a league in which he thoroughly dominated. He scored 129 points in 68 games.
Now, there are those who say that he benefited from playing secondary defences against teams who played their top guys against McDavid's line and that because of that, another year of junior where he could be the main focus of his team would help him.
After having explored this line of reasoning, I don't think it stands up to scrutiny. While the difference between top lines and secondary lines in the OHL is likely greater than it is in the NHL, since common sense dictates that the higher competition-level you move up, the more marginal the differences in skill will be.
Even if we accept that as true, I still don't think there is that much difference to a kid who already has NHL skill - he's going to be way better than most of the first units of the teams he plays against anyways. It's not like the top five players on each OHL team make the NHL.
He also continued to dominate while McDavid was on the shelf with a hand injury, so I think any worries that he somehow had it easy in the OHL last year are probably overblown at best and ridiculous at worst.
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If he is sent back to the OHL, it's a complete waste of his time because in order to make it this far, it's highly likely that Strome is a competitive person. Competitive people prefer challenges. I would argue that as a competitive person, Strome would be better served to play in the NHL were the competition will force him to be better, vs the OHL where he likely be the best player by a large margin, depending on what other teams do with their top picks.
People are always concerned that by "rushing" a player, that will be "ruined." I don't know that there is any basis to this argument. Bring it up and people list off names: Peter Mueller, Luke Schenn, Patrick Stefen...whatever. Name a player who was picked high who didn't work out and people will blame rushing him to the NHL.
The only problem with that is that it makes no sense because it assumes the reason for the player failing was because he came to the NHL too soon, but doesn't take into account the roughly five million other possible reasons he could have caused him to fail. There is no proof that Peter Mueller wouldn't have failed to make the NHL even if he developed for several more minor league seasons. It's possible being rushed did ruin him, but the way that is stated like an absolute fact is ridiculous.
(Also, just as an aside here, Mueller scored 22 goals as a rookie, was picked 8th and played a full season of junior before making the Coyotes, so I don't know why everyone brings him up in relation to Strome. Hanzal may get injured a lot, but he's a legit top 30 C when he's healthy, Bodeker isn't a superstar, but he's still a special player and can't be called a bust, Turris is doing great on the Senators.Blake Wheeler is a star, and OEL is a superstar? Who are these players I keep hearing were ruined by the Coyotes rushing them?)
For every non-star player in the NHL there is probably another guy somewhere who is just as talented but lacked the psychological ability to handle being a pro athlete, got derailed by life issues, refused to work hard enough or whatever. The point is, we can all agree that being talented is only a portion of what allows a player to make the NHL. The thing is, when you draft a player, you know he's talented enough, but outside of a few cursory interviews and some references, what do you really know about him?
Some players just don't have the makeup to be pro athletes and fail despite their talent. If a player isn't ready to play in the NHL, then he's not ready, but if he has NHL skill, then keeping him out of the NHL for fear of ruining him (or worse, thinking there is any kind of correlation to players that failed in the same organization ten years ago and those that were recently drafted) makes no sense.
Whether Dylan Strome is going to be an NHL star is already decided. Only he knows if has the make up for it, but if he does, then he will be and if he doesn't then he won't. I don't think anything the Coyotes do or don't do with him as far as development is really going to matter all that much because he talented like few players are. He has too much raw skill to be "ruined" and if he can't hack a little failure, then he was never going to be good anyways. Putting him in the NHL is fine if he has the skill.
Does he have the Skill? I think he does, but we'll find out for sure at training camp. Offensively Strome should be able to step into the NHL and perform. Max Domi will be in the NHL next year and Strome is already better than Max Domi. He definitely has NHL skill. His skating has been questioned but he wouldn't be the worst skater in the league and he is more of a cerebral slow-the-game down player anyways, so I don't think that is going to hurt him much.
Size? Some say he can add weight, but again, he wouldn't be the smallest or thinnest player and it's not like his job is to mix it up. He'll be fine. He is listed as 6'3 185, but there is no reason he can't be at 200 by training camp if that is something he felt was necessary.
Obviously the biggest struggle for a star offensive player like Strome would be to adjust to play defense against the likes of Crosby, Stamkos and Getzlaf. The Coyotes would be able to shelter him by giving the hardest minutes to Hanzal and Vermette and though even that is difficult, since winning isn't exactly a huge priority anyways, I think the experience of playing NHL players and getting burned will teach him more about how to improve his game than anything he can learn in junior.
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Then there is the Coyotes themselves. They are starved for offense and a centre, they also do have a history of making hockey decisions for off-ice reasons, and selling Strome as the face of the franchise would be a huge bonus to putting him in the NHL.
What about his contract? Fi putting him in the NHL is whats best for his development (and I don't see how challenging someone who wants to be one of the best in the world can be a bad thing) then I think giving the future or your franchise the best development is worth the cost.
You're going to have to lock him up anyways, and it's not like the Coyotes are going to game the system with a bunch of ECLs then max out their cap to put themselves over the top anytime soon. Since they aren't a cap team in the foreseeable future, I highly doubt it makes much difference on their future cap situation if they have to pay him $4 million per year an extra year earlier.
Finally, the last argument for keeping Strome in the NHL is that the first overall pick nearly always goes directly to the NHL. McDavid and Eichel are special players that are not available every year. In a normal year, Dylan Strome would have been the first overall pick and as such we wouldn't even be having this debate.
So to recap:
The risk of ruining him is almost non-existant for a player of his skill level. He's either the kind of guy who will succeed or he isn't, but his talent isn't going to disappear and he is already so good that it doesn't really matter what the Coyotes do.
He'll learn more in the NHL than he will in junior.
He isn't going to hurt the team by playing if he's a little raw.
He likely already has NHL skill and size (assuming he bulks up a bit, if that is a concern).
The Coyote can sell his presence to a fan-base who's been put into turmoil because of off-ice ownership issues.
The Coyotes desperately need scoring and keeping it out of the lineup when they have it is crazy.
Finally, in the end, I really do believe that there is too much caution about rushing players to the NHL. Yes, some guys need more development than others and playing a guy who can't hack it isn't helping anyone, but at the same time, there is an all or nothing attitude about this topic, and players who should be in the NHL, or playing bigger roles if they are, get robbed of a year of an already limited pro career in order to placate a fear that is possibly groundless and at the very least overblown.
Most people who are capable of being the best in the world at something are not going to quit over a little failure - in fact it's likely even beneficial for players. I mean, are Hall and Eberle "ruined" or motivated? Was a 29th place finish detrimental to Crosby the year before the Penguins picked Malkin?
Now, I'm just playing Devil's Advocate here. I don't think it's wise to sit here and say for sure either way. I do think this idea of automatically relegating him to junior right now is stupid though. There is no reason to keep him out of the NHL if he's good enough to play in the NHL, so give him an honest shot at making the team in training camp.
If he's good enough, then there is no reason to keep him off the team.
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