Using statistical data to make predictions is so 2012.
When forecasting round one, I made the mistake of attempting to make sense of the previous 1230 games in order to discover the winners.
As everyone knows, the existenze of the Calgary Flames proves that any statistical model that is not 100% predictive is worthless. (i.e all of them then).
In the East, I selected Montreal, Detroit, Pittsburgh and Washington (even called seven games in that one!) using even strength save% from the regular season. I needed an obligatory upset, so I said the Pens would win, even though the data said New York.
So I went 2-2, but my model went 3-1. Not bad.
In the West, I also went 2-2, getting the correct number of games in the Blackhawks series and also calling the Flames to win. The Blues and Jets let me down like both like both the PBS documentary about Muddy Waters and the straight-to-video film Top Gun 2: Gooses' Ghost.
So, overall, I went a not impressive but not-too-terrible 4-4 in first round Playoff Predictions. Although the stats went 5-3, good enough to make some cash, were you a betting man.
And, jokes aside, unless you're crunching numbers, all of your predictions are guesses. To underline the stupidty of predictions, I went out back of my local Dominoes and found the home of my good friend, confidant, and personal late-night guru, Miss Cleo.
"Oooooooooooh Child, I predicted you would be back. Now let Miss Cleo tell you who is the father of your baby," She said to me as I approached.
I told Miss Cleo I had no paternity issues, but rather wished to get her opinion on the second round of the NHL Playoffs.
"Ooooh that be some Dark Magic darling. That Bettman, he messes with forces you can't understand."
"Dark magic?" asked I, intrigued.
"No hon, the Social Justice Warrior of the Twitter."
Miss Cleo has a very dark sense of humor, what can I say? She did a whole bit on the injustice of the NHL draft lottery, NHL Player safety and the future of Mike Babcock.
It was tedious, but you have to understand that she's used to working for $3.99 /minute and so she tends to drag out her predictions for as long as possible.
Eventually she got around to telling me who would win and this is what she said:
Tampa vs Montreal
Though the Lightning have a 5-0 season record vs. Montreal and though Stamkos is due for an explosion, the Canadiens are going to win.
When I asked why, she said "Child, don't be questioning the Tarot."
So I didn't.
New York vs Washington
She told me that almost all songs about New York are annoying, while the only song she could think of about Washington was this.
"Plus, it's about time Ovechkin won something other than my heart," she said.
Chicago vs Wild
"Child, why don't they call them the North Stars? What kind of name is the Wild anyways? Miss Cleo does not like it. Look for the Blackhawks to win in six," says Cleo.
Anaheim vs. Calgary
Miss Cleo said that the Tarot went dark on this one and would not tell her who would win. That the Flames should have success after hiring the man who ruined her favorite team (Miss Cleo loves the Leafs) caused her to go on a profanity laced tired the likes of which I haven't heard since moving out of my Mom's basement, three weeks ago.
In the end, though, she admitted the Flames would win. When asked why, she said "Why Not?Now leave Miss Cleo in peace. "
She then made several unprintable derogatory references to Latoya Jackson and I went home, where the new Blur cd was waiting for me in my mailbox. It arrived only 36 hours after ordering it!
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