The Coyotes had a great off-season so far, adding Antti Raanta, Nik Hjalmarsson and Derek Stepen to their roster. You'd be hard pressed to say any other team in the NHL added more to their roster this summer, but the problem for the Coyotes is that those are about the only three guys guaranteed a roster spot this October.
I'm joking of course, but not by much. The Coyotes were the 28th best team in the NHL last year, and were arguably the worst team overall.
How bad were the Coyotes? They had the worst Corsi-For in the NHL by two percentage points, and they allowed over a 100 more shot-attempts against than the next worse team.
They allowed the most shots, had the lowest shots-for % and, surprisingly, the fourth most goals allowed, instead of the most. This is because, despite the horrible team in front of him (truly horrible) Mike Smith managed to have a great year. The Coyotes were actually 12th in 5v5 save percentage.
So Smith is in Calgary, I can hear you saying, so why is this relevant? It is relevant because while Antti Raanta is a great pickup, he alone cannot improve this team. A fairly great Mike Smith was able to take the Coyotes from a deserved 30th place finish and bump them up two spots.
Even if Raanta outperforms Smith, (which it seems like he should be able to, but Smith really was very good when he played) the team in front of him has to be miles and miles better for it to make a difference.
With that in mind, who is on the Coyotes roster next season? The defense is easy: It's OEL, Hjalmarsson, Goligoski, Chychrun (eventually) Schenn, Connauton and Glendenning. Maybe Kyle Wood can force a tough decision, but since the Coyotes are somewhat bereft of good young defensemen in their system, unless they make another trade or signing, this is what you're getting.
Forwards are different however. The team needs twelve, and will arguably be without last year's best performer Radim Vrbata.
Locks for the team:
Domi, Stepan, Martinook and Dvorak.
Of the teams 12 forwards, those are the only four players who are both guaranteed a job and qualify as someone who the organization should consider a part of the core group.
Almost Certain to Be on the Team:
Keller, Strome, Duclair and Perlini.
Perlini struggled last season, but he was a rookie, he can score and he's got potential. Strome and Keller are rookies and barring terrible camps, one assumes they'll be on the opening night roster.
Anthony Duclair needs to be signed, and he is also probably on the team. Since he had a bad year and even got demoted to the AHL at one point, I can't guarantee he's on the team, but he most likely is.
Will (likely) Make Team, But Need to be Replaced:
I had to make this separate category because even though these guys are probably going to be on the team, the team should be looking to get rid of them and replace them with better more effective players.
Nick Cousins is the only player I left off who was an NHL player last year. I think he almost certainly makes the team, but the Coyotes have good prospects who might challenge, so I don't think he's a lock by any means.
That said, I also didn't want to put him with the replaceable because he could be an alright player, who knows?
Other players who may challenge for a roster spot are Christian Fischer, Nick Merkley, Ryan MacInnis, Zack Rinaldo (if Tocchet loses his damn mind) and Tyler Guadet.
The Coyotes roster is way better than it used to be, and there will be an interesting training camp since, at least conceivably, there are several jobs that can be won. Ideally, I'd like to see the Coyotes make a couple more moves to bring in a few more stable complimentary players.
Someone like Jagr would be a dream, but the NHL is full of guys who are underrated and who perform well. A lot of them have gone to Europe (Tlusty, Stalberg) or retired (Boyes, Stepniak (I think)).....but those are the kind of guys they should be looking for - cheap, low cost, always effective.
With help from my new favorite site, NaturalStatTrick.com
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