The Washington Capitals are ninth in the NHL in goals scored. (5v5)
On the surface, a great position to be in. The Capitals, however, are third in the NHL with an 8.96 shooting percentage.
The 15th ranked team in the NHL has a 7.81 shooting percentage, and if we consider that "average" and do the math to figure out how many goals the Capitals would have scored on their 1049 shots so far this season, had they shot the "average," they would drop from having scored 94 goals and being ninth overall in goal scored, to having 82 goals and being ranked 22nd.
Parity is such in the NHL that a 1.15 percentage point increase in a teams shooting percentage can take them from the top-third to the bottom-third of the league.
So, unless the Capitals magically know the formula for maintaining a high shooting percentage without ever encountering regression, they should be looking for scoring help.
But what if the Capitals are a high shooting percentage team because they only get high quality scoring chances?
The Capitals are 28th in scoring chances.
The Capitals are 28th in shots.
21st in Corsi.
I think a team that was using skill to manipulate their shooting percentage would have the puck more, take more shots and get more chances than most other teams. How could they perfect a skill no one else ever has, and yet ranked so low in everything else? Seems crazy.
The most likely scenario is that the Capitals have been getting lucky.
The main reason most NHL teams now employ numbers analysts of some kind or an other is to discover situations like this. The Capitals are scoring a ton. If they base their next decision off of results, then they will stand pat, confident in their scoring.
If, however, they are interested in the projections for goal scoring for the rest of the season (read:much less) then they would be wise to add a scoring winger to their team.
Enter Evander Kane.
Kane is third in the NHL in 5v5 shots for. He is 59th in 5v5 scoring (making him a 1st line winger). He basically provides the things that no one on Washington, except for Ovechkin, can provide.
He is exactly what the Capitals need.
He makes $5.25 and Brooks Orpik makes more.
The Capitals have a real shot in a weak Eastern Conference, if they can improve their team somehow between now and the deadline. If they go as-is, they'll be easy pickings for anyone, unless Holtby stands on his head constantly.
Given the Capitals window of winning and their weak prospect system, paying a couple firsts and Sergei Samsonov wouldn't be a bad idea. No one ever has the guts to pay what it would actually take, but what's the alternative? The Capitals MUST try to win while Ovechkin is still on their team. Eventually, they're going to cash Kuznetsov in for prospects and rebuild after a decade + of being an elite team. That is inevitable. Since it is, pay everything you have got to go all-in.
Washington Capitals Blogger • 
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