TORONTO (June 21) – The longest day of the calendar year begins a two-week interval that could establish how quickly the Maple Leafs end their record absence from the Stanley Cup playoffs. Or, it may turn into just another week in the unending quest for that goal. Time, of course, will be the determining factor but there is no way to conceal the elevated tone of anticipation around the club in the days before the National Hockey League draft, and the on-set of free agency.
This juncture is frequently regarded in make-or-break terms by followers of the Blue & White, but that isn’t always an accurate barometer. Certainly, the prospect for immediate significance has been diminished this summer [up to now, anyway] by the lack of first and second-round draft choices – both yielded to Boston in the Phil Kessel trade. It doesn’t, however, preclude the likelihood that general manager Brian Burke will meaningfully alter the club; by all accounts, Burke has rarely been away from the telephone since the Blackhawks raised the Stanley Cup last week.
With that as a back-drop, and before flying to Los Angeles on Tuesday for the league’s annual congress, I submit to you these questions regarding the Leafs:
IS BURKE ANGLING TO MAKE THE PROVERBIAL “SPLASH” AT THE DRAFT AND IN FREE AGENCY? This train of thought, in my opinion, is being overblown for the second consecutive year. It is part of the mindset primarily because Burke is Burke: loud, direct and unambiguous. As a result of that – and the yearning of an increasingly anxious fan-base – it is somehow expected the Leafs’ manager will be the star of the show in Los Angeles and beyond. Who knows? It may unfold as predicted. But, the potential for the club to improve isn’t necessarily tied to a grandiose display by double-B. Amid the anticipation of last year’s draft in Montreal – much of it engendered by Burke’s public desire to wrest the No. 1 pick from the New York Islanders – the Leafs ultimately came away with their allotted selection, landing forward Nazem Kadri of the London Knights seventh overall. A trade that would have sent Tomas Kaberle to the Bruins for Kessel was aborted. In the end, Burke made precious little “noise” but it could be looked upon as an exceptional draft for the Leafs, if Kadri is able to apply his enormous skill-set in the NHL. It is also important to remember that Burke was very active during the past season, acquiring Kessel; the team’s new captain, Dion Phaneuf; a Stanley Cup and Conn Smythe Trophy winner, Jean-Sebastien Giguere, while brilliantly purging two of the most un-movable players and contracts in the league – Jason Blake and Vesa Toskala. That’s quite a body of work, and it doesn’t include the college and European free agents the Leafs have acquired in the past year. So, it’ll likely be difficult for Burke to “one-up” himself in the ensuing weeks, though I suspect he’ll grab a headline or two.
WILL BURKE TRADE TOMAS KABERLE? Not since “who shot J.R.?” in the early 1980s has a question apparently been posed as often as this one… and with good reason. Unless Burke elects to incorporate Luke Schenn in trade talk – he quickly aborted any such conversation a year ago – Kaberle represents his lone bargaining chip. The prospect, however, of Schenn being offered as bait is much less remote than it was last summer. Though Burke is probably hesitant to deal the club’s first-round selection from 2008, the landscape has changed rather dramatically in the past 12 months. Last June, Burke touted Schenn as a long-term, irreplaceable component on the Toronto blue line and a future captain of the Maple Leafs. But, the acquisition of Phaneuf effectively nullified both factors, and the unanticipated growth of Carl Gunnarsson further bolstered the defense. These developments will enable Burke to contemplate a move involving Schenn, though he’ll be abjectly discerning in any trade dialogue. Whether or not that impacts a deal for Kaberle remains to be seen. But it almost certainly hasn’t prompted Burke to lower the asking price for his veteran rearguard. The loudest whispers still suggest Burke is demanding a high draft pick and established scorer for Kaberle – said potential increasing with the number of teams legitimately in pursuit of the Czech-born player. If rival professional scouts have done their work, they’ll have noticed a decline in Kaberle’s performance the past three seasons, and that could impact a trade, and/or lucrative contract extension. In the realm of supply and demand among skilled blue-liners, however, Kaberle remains a prime figure. And, unlike last year, Burke has been much more aggressive in eliciting offers for the 12-year veteran. So, it’ll come as a major surprise if Kaberle is still with the Leafs when his limited no-movement clause goes back into effect in mid-August. That agreement is likely a factor on its own. Once reinstated, the clause provides Kaberle control at the trade deadline next March. If the Leafs again miss the playoffs, Burke would have roughly a week to peddle Kaberle before the free agent market opens on July 1st, 2011. So, really, it’s now or never, though Burke is hardly compelled to make a deal at the draft. He’ll still have more than six weeks to move Kaberle once the Los Angeles event concludes, so it isn’t necessary for a trade to go down under the bright lights of the Staples Center. In fact, such timing should be of no concern to Burke, who may have other means of acquiring a top-six forward.
WHY DOES BURKE HAVE TO PULL OFF SOME BIG MOVES BEFORE OCTOBER? Simple. The club that ended last season – though evidently improved – isn’t good enough to make the enormous leap required for playoff involvement. And, if Burke is genuine in claiming the Leafs can vault quickly into the Cup tournament mix, he has no choice but to continue with an aggressive makeover. Intermingling third and fourth-line players – long a staple of the hockey club – will not suffice. The addition, therefore, of such free agents as Colby Armstrong and Raffi Torres will amount to window-dressing in the absence of at least two front-line players… whichever way they are acquired. And, it must be remembered that the big names potentially available via trade this summer [Patrick Sharp, Nathan Horton, Jason Spezza, Sergei Gonchar] will be hotly pursued by teams further along than the Leafs, such as Philadelphia's acquisition of the negotiating rights to pending free agent Dan Hamhuis. This approach wouldn’t be necessary had Burke chosen a more patient re-structuring. But, his vow to eschew the typical five-year plan obliges him to radically improve a 29th-place team. Otherwise, he’ll begin to lose the confidence of this hockey market.
WHAT PROVIDES THE 2010-11 MAPLE LEAFS THE POSSIBILITY OF IMMEDIATE GROWTH? Though it must be proven from the outset, quick advancement is conceivable through the goaltending tandem of Giguere and Jonas Gustavsson. And, Burke can use it as a foundation for altering the club this summer. Not since Ed Belfour was the undisputed starter in 2003-04 have the Leafs been as potentially settled between the pipes. Without a doubt, the most egregious error made by the club last season was the belief that Toskala could carry the load. It effectively destroyed any chance the Leafs had to build momentum in the early weeks of the schedule and it reflected poorly on Burke and Ron Wilson. The choices, mind you, were limited after Gustavsson suffered a groin-pull and irregular heart-beat in September. But, the mistake was made prior to that – last summer – by choosing to stick with a goalie that required a trio of delicate operations just to be ready for training camp; a goalie that struggled mightily the previous year. To his credit, Burke righted the wrong by agreeing to take on the remaining two seasons of Giguere’s enormous contract. This served a dual purpose. Though the veteran puck-stopper is no longer the force he was during his best years in Anaheim, his amiable, unselfish temperament had a soothing effect on Gustavsson, who yielded nothing from his distant alliance with Toskala. And, Giguere regained a measure of self-confidence after being cast aside by the Ducks. “I’d like to remind you that I’m still only 32 years of age,” he blithely told a media onslaught the day after his acquisition. Now 33, if Giguere can adequately manage the No. 1 role [playing 50 to 60 games at a reasonable level], he’ll give the Leafs an enormous boost and provide Gustavsson the cushion he’ll likely need in his second NHL campaign. That combination – if it prevails – could do wonders for the Blue & White… a team that had no chance with its goaltending arrangement at the start of last season.
SHOULD BURKE SUCCUMB TO TEMPTATION AND GO AFTER ILYA KOVALCHUK IN FREE AGENCY? Absolutely not… and this is why: The Russian-born sniper was a good player on a bad team, and a bad player [okay, e-mailers, an average player] on a good team. Only good teams win the Stanley Cup. Whichever club bows to his demands for salary and tenure is likely to regret the decision.
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