TORONTO (Oct. 27) – In a carefully crafted effort, the Maple Leafs have hyped and boosted rookie Luke Schenn in virtually every public forum during the first two-plus weeks of the season – building an aura around their top draft pick from last summer, and making it sound entirely logical to keep the 18-year-old defenseman in the NHL. But, history has long shown that what the Leafs say doesn’t necessarily dovetail with the premium course of action… and this could be another example.

Truth be known, Schenn has been steady beyond initial expectation, but hardly the Chris Pronger-in-waiting the Leafs are portraying him as. Statistics show him without a point in eight games and a minus-3 in even-strength situations. He has displayed a willingness to stick up for his teammates, as he did Matt Stajan in the opening minute of Saturday’s victory over Ottawa when he challenged veteran roughneck Chris Neil. This had coach Ron Wilson gushing with praise after the game, but it overlooked that Schenn was clobbered in the fight, and that the Leafs would rather their defensemen not spend excessive time in the penalty box.

Wilson is playing the lead role in the pro-Schenn movement, almost to the point of nausea. He has glorified the youngster in just about every media gathering – frequently without provocation. He went as far, earlier today, to suggest that Schenn “makes the best outlet pass” of any Toronto blue-liner – a ridiculous exaggeration given Tomas Kaberle’s primary skill and contribution to the Leafs. But, this campaign is having the desired effect, as the always-risky choice to keep an 18-year-old with a developing team has been largely met with approval. After consecutive wins in October, the Mats Sundin nonsense has also started anew – Wilson claiming how perfect a fit the waffling veteran would be with his playoff-bound team.

Separating doctrine from reality, of course, has forever been a challenge in the Kool-Aid capital of the hockey universe, where 90% of the media and 98% of the fan-base swallows anything the Maple Leafs propagate.

On our end, accepting whatever the team spreads as gospel makes for an easy day’s work – the equivalent of marking down forward-line combinations at practice and building a report around them [you wouldn’t believe how often that happens]. Give your readers/viewers/listeners the club’s angle without remonstration and you’ll be home in plenty of time for dinner. As for the legion of fans in this city, the Leafs understand how readily they have bought false hope through the years, so that isn’t about to change.

But, to use Schenn as an object of that hope is fraught with peril. It is clear that Wilson wants to continue working with the young blue-liner, but a coach should never be called upon to make a decision with long-term implications. Coaches – even those like Wilson who portray themselves as geniuses – aren’t paid to think beyond the next game; general managers are. It stands to reason that Wilson would want Sundin back in the line-up, as his career win percentage would probably rise. Does it really matter to him if the Leafs finish 11th or 12th in the Eastern Conference and destroy their draft promise, rather than 14th or 15th and claim one of the top selections? That’s the GM’s problem, and it’s an area where Cliff Fletcher doesn’t appear to be in command right now.

Why not, if you’re Wilson, dismiss the benefit of maintaining Schenn’s entry-level cap and arbitration eligibility for another year – as he did after today’s practice? “You don’t put people on your team because you’re worried [about] five, six, seven years from now – that’s backward thinking,” said Wilson. Exactly. Preserving several million dollars of cap space down the line bears no significance to a coach. It’s all about trying to win the next game. Heck, for a guy like Wilson that talks about playing the percentages so often, he likely won’t be around in 2012 or 2013. The Leafs are averaging roughly one coach every two seasons since 1967 – and that percentage was enhanced by Pat Quinn holding the job for almost a decade. So, what concern does the bench boss have about four or five years from now?

Look, this isn’t about tearing down Wilson. I think he’s a fine coach and the perfect mentor for an inexperienced group of NHLers. The new Leafs are absorbing his message early in the season and playing rather well. But, there’s a risk that Wilson is overdosing on Schenn, and perilously hyping him in such an intense hockey market [not much of a challenge, as I mentioned]. The stakes with this youngster are higher than with any other player in the organization. It’s been proven, time and again, that 18-year-old draft picks derive benefit from remaining with strong junior programs, and that only a small percentage of these players are good enough to prosper in the NHL. Moreover, it is foolhardy to assume that a quick start in the big league is indicative of exponential growth. The overwhelming majority of 18-year-olds, in fact, experience a decline in performance as their rookie season evolves.

I’m not going to lapse into the “look what happened with Jim Benning, Bob McGill and Gary Nylund” spiel. That was then and this is now, though the Leafs certainly have their own special place in history. Maybe Luke Schenn is every bit as NHL-ready as Wilson is telling all of us. But, there’s also a chance that the coach sees nothing more than the opportunity to win a few more games early in the season. That’s where strong managerial leadership enters the picture, and only time will tell if Fletcher is dropping the ball in this scenario.

E-mail howard.berger@rci.rogers.com

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