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In this edition of the hotstove, we share our rankings for the top-5 defensemen in the NHL who are 22 or younger.
Todd Cordell
1. Seth Jones (Columbus)
Jones tallied 12 goals, 42 points, and drove possession for the Blue Jackets while logging well over 23 minutes per game and playing top competition. An argument could be made he was the most important skater on a 50-win team.
2. Zach Werenski (Columbus)
Recording 47 points and posting a +6.2% Corsi For relative to the team is a pretty good way to start a career.
3. Ivan Provorov (Philadelphia)
Imagine: putting up 30 points and (nearly) breaking even in possession despite spending the vast majority of the time weighed down by Andrew MacDonald.
4. Aaron Ekblad (Florida)
Ekblad has shown a lot of promise over his first few seasons but there are some causes for concern. He has dealt with concussion problems and his numbers -- underlying and standard -- have dropped in consecutive years. Hopefully he can stay healthy and get moving in the right direction again.
5. Rasmus Ristolainen (Buffalo)
I think he's better than many in the analytics community give him credit for, and worse than many who don't use numbers make him out to be. He has his faults but he's very good offensively, particularly on the power play.
Honorable mention: Brett Pesce.
Adam French
1, Aaron Ekblad
A concussion does not make a career, but it can destroy it. We've seen it with Lindros and other talented players. Ekblad had what can be mildly put as a "disaster" season last year. Mired with two concussions, he exited the year on a sour note that brought a lot of contention to his previous elite seasons. Despite this...he's the best defender under 22 in the league right now. With three straight (and one terrible) years of 10+ goals scored and a strong two-way game, Ekblad is the prototypical franchise defenseman. He has his issues, no doubt, but they are the small things that can always be improved on. While he has yet to break 40 points, I think this is the year he does so and emphatically. Maybe 53ish with 16 goals. He's not Norris material yet, but he's closer to that than being a "bust."
2. Seth Jones
Jones took the long development of a defenseman seriously and has proven that that can be the most effective method for blueliners. He wasn't thrust into a terrible job as the number one defenseman, he was eased into it. First as a bottom-pairing defender and moving into the 4/5 role. With his move to the Blue Jackets he got to enter the 1/2 spot. This past season he finally took that next step. Albeit being thrust into it. He put up 12 goals and 42 points (35 at 5vs5) while being a great two-way player. At 22 he's just scratching the surface of what is a great career to come.
3. Zach Werenski
It's weird to have a defensive pair together on this list. Especially when I have the slightly older and less attractive player above the other. Werenski was unfortunate to run into Matthews and Laine fighting for who could score their way into the Calder. Any other year "normal" and he wins it easily. He scored 11 goals and 47 points in his rookie year to lead defenseman in that category. While also finishing 13th overall in defender scoring. While not the best in his own zone, he has shown he will become more competent than not in that regard. He controls possession and play while on the ice. He's smart, he's skilled and he skates like a magician. It's hard to say what his potential is, but high is the easy answer. I have Jones above him simply because I think he has a better overall game, despite Werenski showing to be a better offensive option.
4. Ivan Provorov
Provorov has a legitimate shot at jumping to number one this year if Ekblad has another injury laden year and Jones plateaus. His rookie campaign was simply stellar and on the elite levels for his age group. He emerged as the Flyers top pairing defenseman despite his age and finished with 6 goals and 30 points as a 19/20 year old. He finished second in Flyers defense scoring behind the PP specialist Gostisbehere and was crucially the best Flyer at 5vs5 on the year. Scoring 25 of his 30 points at 5vs5. The young Russian is the future of the Russian National hopes on defense...and the Flyers as well. A lot of expectations, but I think he can handle them.
5. Rasmus Ristolainen
Ristolainen is detested by the analytics crowd and for good reason. You open a graph on him and it basically says that he is worse than Al Iafrate's Skullet. A one-dimensional PP specialist who can't play to save his life. I disagree somewhat. I find it strange that some players get caveates playing with good players or under good systems, when others don't. Ristolainen is a guy I feel will only benefit from more structure and a stronger partner. He showed he can run a PP as well as any player in the NHL, he just needs to show confidence in his physical abilities in the defensive zone. With 45 points this past year he was the second highest scoring defenseman under 23 in the NHL. Behind only Werenski and just ahead of Jones. He has had two straight 40+ point campaigns and plays with awful defensemen. Unlike Jones, this is a player thrust into the number one job with no safety net and it shows. He's still figuring things out, instead of perfecting the imperfections. I expect him to have a big year and prove that he is the second best defenseman from the 2013 draft.
Notable Omission : Brett Pesce
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