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In this edition of the hotstove we look at a few players off to hot starts who we think will slow down moving forward.
Todd Cordell
I'm going with Artem Anisimov.
The 28-year-old is off to a great start in Chicago having scored 11 times and registered 23 points through 27 games. He is currently on pace for 33 goals and 70 points over an 82 game schedule.
That said, I think he's going to regress sooner or later and in a big way. Anisimov is currently scoring on 25%(!!!) of his shots. His career average is 12.5% so he's certainly shooting at an unsustainably high pace.
Also worth noting: Anisimov's career high in points is 44 and he did that in 2010-11. Anisimov only recorded 42 last year while spending most of the season with Artemi Panarin and Patrick Kane so if he couldn't put up big point totals then there's no reason to believe he'll blow by them now.
James Tanner
If you look at the top ten scoring leaders, the only player who looks out of place there is Wayne Simmonds. He's a good player, but is he a top ten scorer? Maybe, but I don't think so. I think he'll fall off.
The other is Patrick Laine. He's good, but doesn't put up the shot volume (at this point) to maintain his torrid pace.
He's first in goals, but 26th in shots. In fact, you'd have to go all the way down to 8th on the goal-leader chart to find a player with a sustainable shooting percentage. (Spoiler Alert: it's Tarasenko).
Also, I don't think that Kyle Turris will finish with 36 goals, and I don't think Mike Condon will end up getting a Vezina nod.
John Jaeckel
Marian Hossa. 14 goals.
The reports of his demise last season were greatly exaggerated, and Hossa is definitely having a good year with plenty left in the tank. But he is likely not going to score more than 25-30 for the season.
A fair amount of his early production was when playing with Artem Anisimov and Artemi Panarin—which he isn't anymore. And if Jonathan Toews' injury lingers much longer, forcing Hossa to essentially "carry" a line of rookies or 3rd-4th liners, the net result should be hampered production.
Peter Tessier
In all likelihood, I think it's one of the rookies that are playing well such as Laine, Mathews, Marner, Vesey, Konecny, Werenski or Nylander.
Right now Laine is on fire and it's hard to believe that he can sustain a 48 goal pace but can any of them sustain their pace? I'm betting a bump in the road hits one or more of them and we see some natural regression. It's fine, don't worry, you want your rookies to develop for the long haul and that's what fans should be thinking.
If you want me choosing a veteran I'd say Kesler. He's on a 36 goal pace and hasn't sniffed near that number since he had 41 in 2010-11. At 32 did he find the fountain of youth- not a chance.
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