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Hotstove: Expectations For Auston Matthews' Rookie Season?

August 27, 2016, 9:39 AM ET [56 Comments]
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Todd Cordell

I think the sky is the limit for Auston Matthews as a player but I don't think he's going to take the league by storm and pile up points at a ridiculous rate during his rookie campaign.

Something along the lines of 20 goals and 50 points makes a lot of sense to me. I think Jack Eichel's rookie season (24 goals, 56 points) is a good baseline for what we'll see and I'd definitely call that a successful season for Matthews.

Very few rookies can manage 50+ points in today's NHL. I think Matthews will be one of them but I wouldn't expect a whole lot more. That's just not realistic.

Adam French

Tracking their junior careers, international performances and general size and skill set I would be very worried if Matthews did not enter at a Hall/Tavares/Eichel level of rookie season.

I have put MacKinnon off of that list because he was insulated with Duchene/O'Reilly/Stastny and Landeskog all as established top and near top line performers.

Matthews has had a year of pro experience including extremely strong performances at the U20 and WC's. His two-way game is superb and at every level he has been a high-end scoring threat. Let alone that he is physically built for the NHL.

That said I expect in a perfectly healthy world

30G 26A 56P -12

Social Media etc. continues to talk about how they plan to play Matthews with Nylander which is both exciting and a bit worrisome considering it's two young rookies. Wondering who the Leafs might pair off with them if they end up being a duo. Especially since Babcock seemed to pair off Kadri-Komarov and Bozak-JVR already. You'd assume they would put a veteran with them...but that leaves a broken down Lupul coming off one of his worst years ever. An aging Michalek who has little left in the tank. AHL 1st liner Colin Greening. Peter "You Forgot I Played Here Didn't You" Holland. Or Matt Martin...

Oh well. Should be interesting. Can't wait to see him at the World Cup along with the other young stars.

Matt Henderson

I've had some experience with 1st Overall picks and I'd say that for someone of Matthews' calibre my realistic expectation would be 20-30-50.

It is really hard to score 50 points in the NHL.
It is really hard to be an 18 year old centre in the NHL.

20-30-50 is a great accomplishment and while it is entirely possible he scores more, it's also possible he scores less. There are a lot of kids joining the Leafs next season. There will be nights where experienced defenses will look impossible to penetrate.

Peter Tessier

he great question- what will Mathews do in his rookie season? Before the draft there were some who questioned whether Mathews should be the first overall pick, pretty soon we'll find out if he was the right choice, at least very prematurely. So what are those expectations?

Goals- is Mathews going to light it up as a Leaf? Let's set the over/under at 20 and I'll go under.

Assists- Is he a play maker, some one who will set others afire? Let's set the over under at 30 and I'll go under again.

I think Mathews will be a 18 goal and 28 assist player for 46 points. Which is not bad but maybe below what expectations are.

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