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Hotstove, Ed. 53: Trading Jeff Carter

February 4, 2012, 6:26 PM ET [24 Comments]
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Welcome to the Hotstove! As always, I'm your host, Travis Yost.

On Saturday, four bloggers - including Adam French of the Phoenix Coyotes, Bill Meltzer of the Philadelphia Flyers, Richard Cloutier of the Edmonton Oilers, and Travis Yost of the Ottawa Senators - gathered to discuss the recent trade speculation regarding center Jeff Carter of the Columbus Blue Jackets.

Jeff Carter's recently inked contract - a $5.27M cap hit through 2021-2022 - is going to turn away a number of suitors, as will his rather storied injury history. However, with Columbus toiling at the bottom of the National Hockey League and looking for a reason to jump start a rebuild, shopping a high-end forward capable of scoring forty goals does make a bit of sense.

And, if there's one incontrovertible truth in the National Hockey League, it's that any player can be had for the right price. Could a team look beyond his contract and injuries in order to bring in a bona fide scorer? What team could put together a desirable offer, one that would entice Columbus to pull the trigger? Weigh in below.

As for us - well, we've got Carter in four different locations, including [staying] Columbus, Los Angeles, Detroit, and Nashville.

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Bill Meltzer: It's funny how much things can change in a year. When Jeff Carter first signed his contract extension in Philadelphia, it was considered something of a "hometown discount" deal for a bankable 35-goal scorer. Now, a year later, it's an undesirable contract once the no-trade kicks in.

At any rate, my view on Carter is that Columbus made a misguided deal to acquire him with the design to play him on a line with Rick Nash. Strictly for hockey reasons -- putting aside whispers about Carter's attitude or any ancillary issues -- it was a bad idea. Both Carter and Nash are shooters who prefer to carry the puck themselves. Neither one is much of a playmaker.

It has not been the least bit surprising that Carter and Nash have failed to establish much chemistry. That's especially true in light of Carter's injuries this season and the team-wide struggles.

Personally, I think that Columbus should not sell low on Carter in order to cut their losses and regroup. Rather, I think they should separate Carter and Nash, see if they can get Carter going and then re-evaluate over the summer.

If I were a rival GM, I would be interested in making a deal for Carter, but would offer less than Columbus gave up to get him (first-round pick and established young NHL forward).

Carter's most consistently successful line in the NHL was his unit in Philadelphia with Scott Hartnell and Joffrey Lupul during the 2008-09 season. I think Carter needs a similar combination of linemates with grit and size to be at his most effective. Carter has good size but is primarily a finesse player.

As for Carter's injuries, he has definitely had a bad run of ill-timed injuries the last couple years. Prior to that, he had been pretty durable.

Richard Cloutier: If you are Columbus GM Scott Howson, you have to deal Jeff Carter.

Carter was clearly unhappy when he was dealt by Philadelphia to the Blue Jackets last summer. Bad start and unhappy player = Negative karma. It's no accident that Carter is having a terrible season and the Jackets are last in the standings. Yes, Carter is the best option at center in Columbus and helps Nash more than hinders him, but it might be time for Howson to completely blow up his team and start over. Nash included.

Let's assume Nash is staying, and Carter is the only piece on the table here. What's he worth? Hard to exactly know. While Carter can, theoretically, put up big offensive numbers, the Flyers traded him because of his attitude, and his contract is long and pricey. Not every team would be offering up the moon to get him. Still, Top 6 forwards don't grow on trees, so there would be a market. Carter might not like some of the teams who would be interested. For example, I could see Winnipeg, who are starving for a #1 center, being interested. But if Jeff doesn't want to play in Columbus, would he really want to play in Winnipeg? Likely no. Carter seems like someone who wants to play on either coast to me.

Realistically, the Jackets could get two decent players/prospects for Carter, but I wouldn't be surprised if they must take salary back in any deal. I'll give a hypothetical: The LA Kings could add Carter. Carter would be happy because LA is sunny and old pal Mike Richards is there. Richards is Ernie to Carter's Bert. If you wondering if I'm saying they like to sleep in the same bedroom, I'm saying, yes, they do. You should see Richards' rubber ducky.

I'm thinking what LA would be willing to give up in a deal would be something like Jack Johnson and a 1st round pick. Or, Johnson and a young player like a Kyle Clifford. Not bad assets, but not exactly the two guys who could turn around the Columbus franchise. Getting back to my mention of possibly dealing Nash...maybe the idea now should be to try and get three or four 1st round picks at the 2012 draft. Maybe you move Carter for Johnson and a 1st from LA. Maybe you move Nash for two high-end prospects and a 1st from a team willing to give that up. Maybe you find a way to move one or two other older assets to get more picks. If you're gonna suck anyway, go full out with it. Start the rebuild now.

Columbus by virtue of their own draft pick will get either Nail Yakupov or that Grigorenko guy. Could you imagine a future 1-2 punch at center with Ryan Johansen and Grigorenko? That's the center position for the next 15 years right there.

But that's the thing...in Columbus, it's not just the forward, or the D, or the goaltending that's the issue. It's everything. And it's also a lack of quality prospect depth. At this exact moment, the Jackets could get two young future pieces for Carter, and three pieces for Nash. They could move others for other future pieces. Add this concept to the idea of drafting 1st overall for a few years, and in time, you have a winning team. It's improvement the slow and painful way. It happens to work.

Yeah, so just deal Carter and forget about trying to be good now.

Travis Yost: Reading responses from both Bill Meltzer and Richard Cloutier has me sitting squarely on the fence. The issue here is that, no matter what way you look at Carter, a fine line has been drawn.

On one side, you have a mercurial talent with an injury history and contract that's locked-in until 2022(!). Further, moving a player like Jeff Carter - a guy who can play the 1LC in this NHL - puts Columbus back to square one; that is, looking for a pivot for talented winger Rick Nash.

On the other side, this Columbus team looks hopeless. I can say that with confidence, as I pretty much tore the moves made by this front office to shreds here on HockeyBuzz over the summer. Square pegs, round holes. Moving Carter would get rid of an egregious contract, and hopefully bring in talented pieces to build around. Cutting losses, moving on.

The first question you have to ask: Is there a contender in the National Hockey League that would roll the dice on Jeff Carter? Resoundingly, yes. First, these teams have to smell blood in the water. They're going to get Carter at a discount to what Columbus gave up, and speaking strictly in terms of value, that's a good buy.

Second, there's seemingly a number of playoff contenders that are just one piece away from looking Stanley Cup caliber. Here, I present the Detroit Red Wings - a franchise that's long prided itself on making the right moves at the right time. Detroit's one of the best in the NHL right now, but bringing in Jeff Carter would have to put them neck-and-neck with the likes of Vancouver in the West.

And, just imagine Carter drawing into Detroit's top-six. In my opinion, the lines look something like this:

Todd Bertuzzi - Pavel Datsyuk - Johan Franzen
Valtteri Filppula - Jeff Carter - Henrik Zetterberg

Is there a better top-six in the National Hockey League? Uh, doubtful. Bringing in Jeff Carter could jump-start the talented Henrik Zetterberg on L2, who has really slowed as of late. And, I think Filppula has more than proven his worth to this team, forming a slid trio behind the venerable Datsyuk L1.

The best part about Jeff Carter? He's flexible. Detroit's in need of a right-handed shot, too, and Carter could theoretically jump into one of the two RW spots if need be.

The Red Wings - in this deal - can kiss their first-round pick goodbye. Also heading in the other direction? At least one top prospect. In Detroit's ranks, my guess is Columbus would require at least one of Brendan Smith, Tomas Tatar, Gustav Nyquist, Tomas Jurco, or Teemu Pulkkinen in exchange.

Would Detroit make this deal? Hard to say. But, I do think it'd solidify them as a Stanley Cup contender, and with enough cap room to take on Jeff Carter's contract without 'selling' off a piece(+$5.38M), it's one they very well could consider.

The biggest hurdle here? The fact that the two play in the same division. Perhaps Detroit would have to sweeten the pot a bit.

Adam French: Yes.

If he’s having more than on ice problems and injury issues then Columbus needs to move him. It’s a rebuilding team that has been toiled in failure since the dawn of time and at some point you need to fear for that dressing room if you add loser attitudes. Carter is a very good player but his reputation is a little dodgy and I don’t think he will ever reach his career high 46 goals ever again, but 30 -35 is easily in his range when healthy and in the right situation. The contract is harder to swallow and it would only be a good fit on a team with some money (So there goes the Coyotes making a pitch).

The Jackets are likely in line for one of Nail Yakupov or Mikhail Grigorenko this draft and they are both very talented and driven players to build with along with Johansen. They should move Carter if they can for a young top defenseman. I doubt they get the lofty return of a top-10 pick and a quality young 2nd liner like they traded, but he’s still valuable.

One team I think should go after him would be the Nashville Predators. They have money issues it’s true and the Suter/Weber contract situation, but think about it this way...if they get Carter for say Jonathan Blum and their 1st round pick, that team could go deep into the playoffs. It would give them another offensive weapon added to the most dominant defensive pair and one of the best goalies in the league. Carter/Legwand/Fisher/Spaling is a pretty good line down the middle, not elite, but then the Preds don’t need elite forwards to win with the dearth of 2nd line talent they have. Who knows, if the Preds get Carter and they go to the 3rd round of the playoffs, maybe that finally convinces the ownership to open their wallets. The fan base is rabid and growing, Nashville has always been rather conservative but this would be a move that could help push them into Stanley Cup Contender category.

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