Following a breakout season from Columbus goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky, one which might well culminate in a Vezina Trophy win, there was never any question the pending RFA was in line to make a whole lot of money. There haven't been many goaltenders that have recorded a Vezina-worthy campaign just ahead of restricted free agency to give us a good idea of just how much, however. Trying to find a number that would satisfy both club and player was bound to be difficult under the current circumstances. But a report from Yahoo! Sports Dmitry Chesnokov might further complicate matters for Columbus.
Chesnokov writes that SKA St. Petersburg of the KHL is prepared to pursue Bobrovsky this summer. He was also told, "the money they are willing to offer is very good."
Bobrovsky suited up for SKA during the lockout and given the KHL's longstanding desire to bring home Russia's best hockey players, SKA's pursuit makes sense. SKA also tried to repatriate fellow Russian net minder Semyon Varlamov a couple of years ago when the now Colorado goalie was a RFA.
Now Chesnokov also said Bobrovsky's preference is to remain in the NHL, presumably with Columbus so the Jackets should still be able to get something done with their best player. However SKA's interest will certainly push Bob's price tag a little higher.
I wouldn't worry too much about Bob leaving. As long as his preference is to remain in North America I have no doubt Columbus and Bob will find common ground. The Jackets are coming off a surprisingly successful season both on and off the ice. Columbus nearly made the postseason and has seen a 13% increase in season ticket renewals over last year. There is no way they will jeopardize their good standing in the eyes of their fans by letting their best player leave town. They'll get it done.
That being said, general manager Jarmo Kekalainen recently said there has been no progress on a new contract. Here's the exact quote courtesy of Aaron Portzline of The Columbus Dispatch:
“We’ve talked. We’ve exchanged ideas,” general manager Jarmo Kekalainen said this week. “But we haven’t made any progress, really. It’s been pretty quiet for a while now.”
He goes on to discuss the possibility of another club signing Bob to an offer sheet but didn't seem too concerned.
“That’s something we can’t control,” Kekalainen said. “It’s obvious what we’re going to do if it goes that far. We have great ownership; committed ownership. We would match any offer there might be, but I’m optimistic we won’t get to that point.”
Assuming a deal does get done between Bobrovsky and the Jackets, what might that deal look like? There aren't any perfect comparables out there, even under the old CBA, but I did find several goaltenders who signed extensions as RFA's. Looking at those deals, the point in the player's career the contract was signed and the player's performance up to the point of the extension, we can get at least a rough idea of what Bobrovsky might be looking to get.
Here are five goaltenders who were at roughly the same stage of their respective careers to Bobrovsky and who agreed to RFA contracts with their clubs. I'll list the stats these guys had recorded prior to their extensions and also the details of their contracts. First though, let's review Bobrovksky's numbers, both this past season and his career stats to date.
2012-2013: 38 GP, 21-11-6, 2.00 GAA, 0.932 S%
Career: 121 GP, 63-34-16, 2.49 GAA, 0.917 S%
Semyon Varlamov - Colorado Avalanche
Contract: Three years, $8.5MM (signed prior to the 2011 - 2012 season)
Career Stats (at the time of the extension): 59 GP, 30-13-12, 2.39 GAA, 0.917 S%
Varlamov didn't have a lengthy NHL track record when Colorado gambled and sent a first-round draft pick to Washington to snare the RFA goalie. The Avalanche subsequently signed Varlamov to this deal and he responded with a solid debut campaign in Colorado (2.59 GAA, 0.913 S%). Varlamov's play regressed somewhat this past season (3.06 GAA, 0.903 S%).
SKA also pursued Varlamov prior to his signing with Colorado. That interest might have gotten Varlamov a better contract than his play up to that point warranted but it's hard to argue that an average starting goaltender is overpaid making less than $3MM per season.
Michal Neuvirth - Washington Capitals
Contract: Two years, $5MM (signed just after the conclusion of this past regular season)
Career Stats: 121 GP, 55-35-11, 2.66 GAA, 0.909 S%
Neuvirth is an odd case; he's the backup to Braden Holtby in Washington moving forward but is slated to make more money than his goaltending partner. His stats are solid and he has a track record closer in length to that of Bobrovsky even if his numbers aren't as good. However Neuvirth's value was undoubtedly impacted by his future role with the club so his salary isn't going to be a good indicator of what Bob should get.
Viktor Fasth - Anaheim Ducks
Contract: Two years, $5.8MM
Career Stats: 25 GP, 15-6-2, 2.18 GAA, 0.921 S%
Fasth, at 30, is significantly older than any of the other goaltenders in this comparison. After singing a one-year deal prior to the start of the season, Fasth earned an extension very quickly into his rookie year. Fasth showed Anaheim that he can be an effective goalie at the highest level. But as with Neuvirth, Fasth is going to be in a time share situation with Jonas Hiller in Anaheim. Bobrovsky will be the undisputed starter in Columbus and as such has a much better case for a big contract than Fasth. That tells me Bob is worth well in excess of the $2.9MM that Fasth is scheduled to earn over the next two seasons.
Antti Niemi - San Jose
Contract: One Year, $2MM
Season Stats (season before contract was signed): 39 GP, 26-7-4, 2.25 GAA, 0.912 S%
Niemi was another interesting case. After winning a Stanley Cup with Chicago, Niemi was eligible for arbitration where he was awarded a one year, $2.75MM contract. Faced with a salary cap crunch, Chicago elected to walk away from the award, making Niemi an unrestricted free agent, and subsequently signed veteran backstop Marty Turco.
With his market severely limited due to the timing of his arbitration hearing (late summer) Niemi was forced to take the Sharks offer. It wasn't long before the Sharks agreed to extend Niemi long term, giving him a four year, $15.2MM deal probably more in line with his actual value than the $2MM salary he took initially.
Kari Lehtonen - Dallas Stars
Contract: One Year, $3MM
Season Stats (season before contract was signed): 46 GP, 19-22-3, 3.06 GAA, 0.911 S%
Formerly the second overall selection in the 2002 Entry Draft, Lehtonen failed to live up to his draft position in Atlanta. Dallas believed in his potential enough to trade for him and give him $3MM. Just after his first season in Dallas, Lehtonen agreed to a three year, $10.65MM extension on the heels of a 6-4-0, 2.81 GAA, 0.911 S% performance for the Stars.
Lehtonen had more NHL experience than Bobrovsky but never had a single season as good as the one just posted by the Columbus net minder.
As you can see there is no perfect comparable to Bobrovsky. Anyone with roughly the same level of NHL experience can't match Bobrovsky in the performance department. The better performers in this group haven't been in the league as long as Bob.
If I had to guess Bobrovsky will easily outpace any of the AAV's of the extensions signed by his goaltending peers. Just how high his salary goes might depend on term. Will the parties agree to what is being referred to as a "bridge contract" of perhaps two years and see where things fall? Or will Columbus and Bobrovsky decide a longer term arrangement is more palatable.
Kekalainen has already agreed to RFA deals with Mark Letestu, Matt Calvert and Cam Atkinson, each of which was two years in length. Perhaps that's the preferred MO for Kekalainen and maybe that's what he'll look to do with Bob.
Under the bridge (cue the Red Hot Chili Peppers) scenario, I would guess Bobrovsky would approach $3.5MM to $4MM in annual salary on a two year deal. If he signs a longer term contract that buys out free agent years then his salary might even exceed the $5MM threshold. Either way I expect both sides to reach a friendly accord making both parties happy and keeping Bobrovsky in Columbus' crease for the foreseeable future.
Columbus Blue Jackets Blogger • 
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