With Columbus changing conferences and finally realizing their long-awaited wish to play in the East, the Jackets will now share a division with a whole new crop of teams. Playing in the Central with clubs like Detroit, St. Louis, Chicago and Nashville certainly hasn’t been a picnic for the Jackets but joining the new Metropolitan Division isn’t going to represent much of a reprieve in terms of the quality of their opposition. Four of Columbus’ new division mates qualified for the playoffs this season while Philadelphia and Carolina both boast a lot of talent and reasonable expectations to challenge for a postseason spot next year.

Making the playoffs isn’t going to be easy for the Jackets but that’s still the goal for the team that nearly defied the experts this past year by making a late charge for a postseason position. In order to realistically gauge the Jackets odds of qualifying for the Stanley Cup tournament next spring, let’s take a look at each of their new division rivals in a series of posts.

Today we look at the Carolina Hurricanes. For this piece I reached out to HockeyBuzz’s Carolina Hurricanes blogger Matt Karash so I could add his input to my own. Obviously he knows the team better than anyone else on this site and he was gracious enough to provide his thoughts for this post.

2013 Review:

Following three straight non-playoff seasons, Hurricanes GM Jim Rutherford acted aggressively last summer to upgrade the club’s roster in a bid to end the postseason drought. He completed a major trade with Pittsburgh to acquire center Jordan Staal, parting with a pricey package of center Brandon Sutter, D prospect Brian Dumoulin and the 7th overall selection at the 2012 entry draft. Jordan was expected to slot behind his brother Eric giving the Hurricanes a potent 1-2 Staal punch up the middle.

Not satisfied with only upgrading the pivot position, Rutherford also signed former Washington Capitals sniper Alexander Semin to a one-year deal. Semin was good averaging a point-per-game and earned a massive extension from the Hurricanes. Staal struggled in Carolina scoring just 10 goals with 31 points in 48 games and finishing with a -18 plus-minus rating, the second worst mark on the team.

Goal prevention, more so than goal scoring, is what ultimately undid Carolina’s playoff chances, however. The Hurricanes were 12-8-1 and sitting in first place in the Southeast on March 1st. Then Cam Ward went down with an MCL injury to his and backups Dan Ellis and Justin Peters couldn’t hold the fort. The duo combined to post a GAA of 3.29 and a save percentage of 0.899. That simply wasn’t good enough as the Hurricanes were 7 – 17 – 3 down the stretch and finished 13 points out of the playoffs.

In With the New:

F Nathan Gerbe – One year, $550K
G Anton Khudobin – One year, $800K
D Mike Komisarek – One year, $700K
RW Aaron Palushaj – One year, $600K
D Andrej Sekera – Trade w/ Buffalo
D Ron Hainsey – One Year, $2MM

The key addition here is that of Khudobin, formerly Tuuka Rask’s understudy in Boston. Khudobin won nine of his 14 starts for the Bruins while stopping 92% of the pucks thrown his way. He certainly gives the Canes a better option behind Ward even if he will find it more difficult playing behind Carolina’s defense than he did the Bruins.

In an attempt to upgrade the blue line, Rutherford traded for Sekera from Buffalo at the entry draft. The advanced stats (HART and Fenwick HART) weren’t too fond of his play a year ago as he finished with a -11.1 HART (106th of 147 D who played a minimum of 500 5v5 minutes) and a -23.2 Fenwick HART (142nd). HART viewed Sekera’s play more favorably in 2011 – 2012 when he recorded a rating of 6.9; good enough to place 58th of the 202 blue liners who saw 500 minutes of even strength ice. He played more than 21 minutes per game last season and will at least munch some minutes in Carolina.

Sekera’s former Sabre teammate, the diminutive Nathan Gerbe, signed with the Hurricanes after having the final year of his contract with Buffalo bought out. He signed a cheap one-year low risk deal and Carolina hopes Gerbe can settle in as a complementary scorer. He did pot 16 goals as recently as 2010 – 2011 and Carolina would happily take that level of production.

After four disappointing seasons in Toronto, Mike Komisarek also had his deal bought out this summer freeing him to sign with Carolina. He brings size and experience but it remains to be seen how effective he can be.

Aaron Palushaj with three career goals in 66 NHL contests provides little more than depth for the Canes.

Due to the recent news of Joni Pitkanen’s season-ending heel problem, the Canes added free agent Ron Hainsy to fill the gap. Hainsey is a solid vet, but has struggled in each of the last couple of seasons in puck possession metrics (Fenwick) and on-ice goal stats, where the Jets surpassed their expected goals against rate by a whopping 70% when Hainsey was on the ice. He was one of the better blue liners remaining on the open market but isn’t a difference-maker.

Here’s what Matt had to say on the team’s offseason additions:

MK: Khudobin is important, but I think the bigger thing is the complete revamp of the defense. BEFORE the Pitkanen injury, the Canes had swapped out 2 offense-oriented puck movers (McBain, Corvo) and added 2 players who will hopefully make the defense better at…well defense. Hainsey makes a change in 3 out of 6 defensemen.

Out With the Old:

G Dan Ellis – Signed by Dallas as UFA
RW Chad LaRose – UFA

Ellis was underwhelming when called upon last season to fill in for Ward and the acquisition of Khudobin qualifies as an upgrade for the Canes.

Matt had a slightly different and probably more thorough take on Ellis:

MK: Ellis 2013 is a little more 2 parts/Jekyl and Hyde than just bad. He was actually very good early in the season (better than Ward arguably). But the series of events was Ward injury, Ellis played a game or 2, then Ellis got hurt, Peters was not good while Ellis was on the shelf, then Ellis (maybe because he rushed back) was not good down the stretch. So your comment that he failed to fill in for Ward is reasonably accurate from the point where Ward got hurt and was out of the picture.

LaRose only scored two goals last season for Carolina but had reached double-figure goal totals in each of the previous five seasons and has been one of the Canes’ best forwards in terms of puck possession metrics. He’s the ideal third-line, energy guy that can chip in offensively and I find it strange a team hasn’t brought him in. I find it odd that no one has at least extended a training camp invite to the veteran forward. At just 31 years of age it’s hard to imagine LaRose doesn’t have at least a couple of good seasons in front of him and there are certainly teams that could use a player of his ilk.

Forwards:

Eric Staal was back to the point-per-game level for the first time in three years and finished 6th overall in the NHL in scoring with 53 points. At 28, he should still have several good years ahead of him. Staal is definitely one of the top pivots in the game today.

Semin proved to be a solid signing by Rutherford as he also reached the point-per-game plateau. He combined with Staal and Jiri Tlusty to form an effective and productive top line last year. My only question/concern is will Semin again perform at that level or will the comfort provided by a long term contract cause his play to suffer. Talent has never been lacking with Semin but sometimes motivation seems to be absent.

Tlusty enjoyed a breakout season in his sixth NHL campaign netting 23 goals, a total good for a fifth place tie in the NHL. Originally drafted by Toronto in the first round in 2006, it could be that Tlusty has finally found his game and he fits in well in Carolina. Or last season could have been a bit of a fluke. Carolina better hope it’s the former.

Jeff Skinner’s point production has slumped since winning the Calder Trophy in 2010 – 2011. Last season he potted 13 goals in 42 games, a total which was still good enough to tie him for 3rd on the club. The Canes need Skinner to get back to the 30-plus goal threat he was in his rookie campaign.

Patrick Dwyer tied his career-high in goals with eight while averaging a career-best 15:26 of ice time per contest. He’s in over his head if asked to fill a top-six role however, and would be better suited skating on the team’s third line.

Tuomo Ruutu is a key player for the Canes. He missed 31 games this past season but offers Carolina a combination of grit and goal-scoring. He’s averaged 0.62 points-per-game since coming to the Canes in a trade during the 2007 – 2008 season. Ruutu led Carolina forwards with a 3.2 HART rating in 2011 – 2012 and a healthy return to action for the rugged winger would allow head coach Kirk Muller to better slot his complementary players.

Drayson Bowman, one of the aforementioned complementary players, tallied just five points last season but was one of Carolina’s more effective players in terms of puck possession and HART the year before.

First-round pick Elias Lindholm, selected fifth overall in June, is expected to make the opening day roster and could contribute right away. Scouts like his two-way abilities and the Canes have some openings up front. Lindholm should be on anyone’s list of early Calder candidates.

Like me Matt likes the top forwards on the club but has his concerns nonetheless.

MK: I think the big question is the bottom 6 forwards. The team could literally have 4-5 forward slots open to be won in training camp.

Defense:

The loss of Pitkanen for the season hurts Carolina a great deal. Pitkanen sees a ton of ice time and plays in all situations for the Canes. He finished second on the club in ES TOI/Game at 22:49 and led the team’s blue liners in PP TOI/Game with 3:11. His absence looms large for a club that struggled keeping the puck out of the net last season as it was.
Justin Faulk, 21, is developing into one of Carolina’s top defensemen. He led the club in ATOI/Game and ranked second among blue liners in scoring. He will continue to see big minutes and be relied on heavily by Carolina.

Tim Gleason, one of Carolina’s longest-tenured players, will undoubtedly be relied on even more with Pitkanen out. His play wasn’t viewed favorably by the advanced stats; he ranked dead last among Hurricane defenders in Fenwick HART (-19.8) and posted a HART rating of -27.4 last season. If Carolina is going to improve markedly in goal prevention, Gleason will need to play a big part in that.

Ryan Murphy, Carolina’s first-round selection in 2011, has a chance to make the opening day roster after seeing action in four games with the Hurricanes last year. He’s undersized and needs work in his own zone but has elite offensive skill and is a terrific skater.
Jay Harrison adds size (6’4”, 211) and toughness. He doesn’t bring much to the table offensively but is a steady, stay-at-home defenseman.

Goaltending:

The Hurricanes are a much better team with a healthy Ward between the pipes. Rutherford made a wise move to add a competent backup in Khudobin with upside but the Canes’ playoff hopes rest on Ward’s shoulders. Ward was 9 – 6 – 1 with a GAA of 2.84 and a Save % of .908. His career Save % is a couple ticks above what he posted last year so I would expect him to be better if the Canes get better defensive play in front of him.

Overview:

Carolina should get more consistent play in goal with the return of Ward and addition of Khudobin. They have some nice pieces up front and if everyone performs up to their talent level Carolina will score goals. The problem is on the blue line. They struggled last year in their own zone and the additions of Hainsey, Komisarek and Sekera probably isn’t enough of an upgrade to propel this team into the playoffs in the tough Metropolitan Division.

I want to thank Matt for taking the team to read through this piece and for offering his insights on the Carolina Hurricanes. Matt is a terrific blogger and does a great job covering the Hurricanes for this site. I highly recommend giving his work a read whenever you are looking for solid coverage of one of Columbus’ newest division rivals.

Back later with thoughts on Columbus’ preseason to date. Thanks for reading.

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