During the 2010 – 2011 season RJ Umberger posted a career high 57 points (25 goals and 32 assists) and was rewarded by GM Scott Howson with a five-year contract extension worth $23MM, carrying a cap hit of $4.6MM annually. It seemed a wise investment at the time to lock up the 29 year-old forward a year before he would have hit unrestricted free agency. Umberger had posted goal totals of 25, 23 and 26 respectively in each of the seasons leading up to the deal and surely would have been offered at least that much on the open market had he reached it. Big forwards who can consistently net 25 goals are a popular commodity in the NHL.

Unfortunately for Umberger, Howson, the Columbus organization and Jackets fans, the 6’2” 220lb winger has seen his production decline since signing that contract. Last season he still reached the 20-goal mark but recorded 17 fewer points overall than the year prior. This season through eight games, Umberger has just one point, an assist. So, what’s happened to Umberger and why has his production regressed? Is it a one-year anomaly (since the eight games he’s played this year are virtually meaningless in the big picture)? Let’s study this issue to find out.

The first factor usually considered when a player begins a regression is age; has the player passed his peak and is he on the down-slope of his career? Umberger did hit 30 late last season (May) and that’s an age many consider to be the beginning of the end in a hockey career. Still, many players remain productive well into their 30’s so while we can’t completely dismiss the notion that Umberger’s best years are behind him it’s far from a foregone conclusion that age alone is the culprit.

Something else that can lead to diminished offensive production is a reduction of the total amount and quality of ice time the player receives. The more ice a player sees per game then logically the more opportunities he has to record points. Also since more goals are scored per minute of PP time than at ES or PK time (obviously) then consequently the more man-advantage time spent on the ice the more points a player should score.

The following is a breakdown of Umberger’s time on the ice for each of the last five seasons.

Season ES PP SH Total
2012 - 2013 13:54 3:18 1:04 18:17
2011 - 2012 14:00 3:09 1:01 18:11
2010 - 2011 13:57 3:17 1:58 19:13
2009 - 2010 13:37 3:19 2:12 19:10
2008 - 2009 13:56 2:54 1:55 18:46

While his ice time last season was about a minute less than what he received in each of the two previous years that difference can be mostly accounted for by playing less time killing penalties. Since it’s doubtful seeing a decrease in PK time has affected his point-production a lack of total or quality ice time is not to blame for the regression.

Now it’s time to delve into some advanced metrics to see what might be revealed through the prism of statistical analysis. Here’s a quick explanation of several of the advanced stats you will see used regularly here.

OZS and OZF – Offensive Zone Start and Offensive Zone Finish

Discounting shifts that begin in the neutral zone, OZS is the percentage of shifts a player begins in the offensive zone. OZF is the percentage of a player’s shifts that end in the offensive zone, again removing neutral zone starts.

Obviously goals are scored when teams have possession of the puck in the offensive zone. Beginning shifts in the offensive zone enhances a player’s chances of contributing to a goal being scored. The fewer shifts a player begins in the offensive zone the less likely it is his line will score and the more likely it is he is assuming a defensive role on his team.

If the OZF is greater than the OZS that is indicative that the player has done the job of flipping puck possession and tilting the ice in his club’s favor.

QoC and QoT – Quality of competition and Quality of Teammates

These metrics measure the qualities of competition and teammates based on average plus-minus weighted by head-to-head ice time. If a player’s QoT is higher than his QoC then intuitively he should be more productive. Conversely, if his QoC is higher than his QoT then that player is at a disadvantage in terms of his chances of scoring goals.

PDO

PDO is the sum of a player’s on-ice shooting percentage and his on-ice save percentage. This is an indicator of either good or bad luck. The metric regresses heavily toward the mean which means a player who registers high one season and therefore benefited from “good luck,” can be expected to see his PDO swing back toward the mean and possibly experience “poor luck,” the following season. The mean PDO is 1000.

Let’s use PDO of Manny Malhotra from the 2008 – 2009 season as an example. His on-ice shooting percentage was 9.16% (or for this calculation, 91.6) and the team’s save % when he was on the ice was .925 (expressed for this metric as 925). If you add 91.6 and 925 you get 1017 (1016.6 rounded up). That suggests he benefited from good luck and in this case his on-ice save % was abnormally high.

Alright, now that you may have a greater grasp of the metrics, let’s get back to Umberger. The first table will be of his OZS and OZF rates and the differential between the two. Again, a positive differential means Umberger at the very least was useful in helping his team gain possession of the puck and to get it to where the Jackets have a better chance to score goals.

By the way, you can find these metrics and more on the website Behind The Net. www.behindthenet.ca

(Note: I am excluding the current season due to sample size concerns and the fact the results for eight games are statistically meaningless.)

Season OZS OZF Differential
2011-2012 48.6 48 -0.6
2010-2011 53.4 50.8 -2.6
2009-2010 46.7 49.3 2.6
2008-2009 51.6 50.9 -0.7

During his best season of 2010 – 2011, Umberger did benefit from better starting position on his shifts. However, the more you study these metrics the more you’ll see a 53.4 OZS isn’t that high.

Now we’ll analyze the quality of his teammates compared to that of his opponents.

Season QoC QoT Differential
2011-2012 0.02 -0.083 -0.103
2010-2011 -0.003 -0.043 -0.04
2009-2010 0.028 0.023 -0.005
2008-2009 0.037 0.088 0.051

Perhaps not surprisingly, the quality of competition Umberger faced during his best season was the lowest of any of the four seasons profiled here. Granted, the quality of his teammates that year was also low leading to just a mild differential. Last season, Umberger faced stiff competition doing so playing with the lowest QoT of his Blue Jackets career. This suggests that Umberger was skating against one of the opposition’s better lines and doing so with below-average linemates. That can certainly have a profound effect on one’s performance.

Lastly we’ll see if luck, good or bad, played any part in Umberger’s successes and failures. No table this time but here are Umberger’s PDO figures for each of his last four full seasons.

2011-2012 – 996 PDO (a little bad luck)

2010-2011 – 1010 PDO (good luck driven mostly by a 10.13 on-ice shooting %)

2009-2010 – 989 PDO (the result of a subpar 0.898 on-ice save %)

2008-2009 – 980 PDO (again, a below-average 0.899 on-ice save % contributed to his bad luck)

This suggests Umberger was the recipient of good luck during his best season but remember the year prior he posted 55 points (23 goals, 32 assists) and wasn’t “lucky,” according to his PDO.

I also looked at his shot totals and shooting percentages over the last few seasons to see if perhaps an abnormally low shooting percentage or fewer shots on goal might have impacted his goal scoring total. He actually averaged more shots per game last year (2.6) than he had over his career (2.36) up to that point. His 10% shooting % was down a point from his career mark of 11%. However, if he had simply converted at his career mark it would have meant just two more goals last season than what he actually netted.

My best guess is that more was expected last season from Umberger in terms of playing against better competition and/or the opposing team matching up their better checkers against RJ and co. since he was clearly one of the Jackets top players. Chances are that won’t change much this year nor should we expect another PDO of 1010 suggesting what we saw last year from Umberger is probably the player we will see more of this year and into the future.

That may not be good news for Jackets fans. He’s scheduled to account for a $4.6MM cap hit in each of the next five seasons and that’s pretty hefty for a sub-50 point player. As the years go by it’s also quite possible his production decreases more the deeper into his 30’s he gets.

Tonight’s game note: According to Rob Mixer of BlueJackets.com, Steve Mason gets the start in net tonight against Detroit. I think this is a mistake. As I expressed in the comments section, if Columbus intends for Bobrovsky to be the starter in net this season and possibly beyond, then they should have thrown him back out there tonight following a rough go Thursday. Sitting him out can’t be exactly good for his confidence.

I understand wanting to go with the hot hand to give your team the best chance to win every night but this team isn’t built to win now. The hope is to be a playoff team in the near future. Chances are Mason won’t be with the club beyond this season while Bobrovsky likely will. Do you want to chance harming your near-future goaltender’s confidence for a better chance to win one game in what is almost surely not going to be a playoff season regardless? I would think not but apparently Todd Richards sees it differently.

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