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The Curious Case Of Zemgus |
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On June 27, the Buffalo Sabres made qualifying offers to five of their restricted free agents. Rasmus Ristolainen, Zemgus Girgensons, Marcus Foligno, Jake McCabe, Casey Nelson, Jason Kasdorf and Dan Catenacci were all qualified to protect the Sabres against another team signing their free agents. Tim Murray would receive compensation if another team signed one of his RFAs who were qualified.
Tim Murray took a pass on RFAs Nathan Lieuwen, Alex Guptill, Jack Nevins, Colin Jacobs and Andrey Makarov, who all became unrestricted free agents.
Murray has used the past three NHL drafts to stock the cupboards in AHL Rochester.
Now seems like as good a time as any to say out with the old, in with the new.
NHL players had until 5 p.m. Friday July 15 to accept their qualifying offers.
Zemgus Girgensons, Jason Kasdorf and Dan Catenacci still remain unsigned today.
Kasdorf and Catenacci are just a matter of time.
My real concern is with Girgensons, the former NHL All Star and 14th overall pick in the 2012 NHL Draft.
Girgensons is now left to have to negotiate his own contract with Tim Murray.
By not accepting his qualifying offer, Girgensons and his agent semingly have their own compensation in mind. They obviously were not buying what Murray was selling in the qualifying offer. That is the player's right as stated in the NHL CBA.
Now the dance begins and the questions abound.
One wonders, what is his value to the Sabres right now?
Is he a center or a winger?
Is he a top six or bottom six?
Was he just a great leader on a tanking team?
Can he sustain his production and growth over a longer period of time?
Will the signing of Kyle Okposo make infringe on the role that Girgensons has played in Buffalo the past three seasons?
Will Tim Murray's pursuit and ensuing signing of Harvard UFA Jimmy Vesey seal Zemgus' fate in Buffalo once and for all?
With future Sabres star wingers to be in Alex Nylander, Justin Bailey, Nick Baptiste, Hudson Fasching, Rasmus Asplund, Evan Rodrigues, Will Carrier and others already making headline news in 716, will Girgensons be a Sabres player for much longer?
Too many questions, not enough answers.
Will the real Zemgus Girgensons please stand up.
Listen, you wont find a bigger Zemgus Girgensons fan than yours truly. I've been a Zemgus believer ever since I saw him skate in summer shinny matches at Cazenovia Rink in the summer of 2012. His size, strength, skill and swagger caught my eye from minute one. I like the kid's game and I like the kid's personality.
It doesn't matter what I or you think about Girgensons.
Tim Murray didn't draft Girgensons. Darcy Regier did.
Murray needs to see more growth and hunger from Girgensons, who chose the wrong season to take a nose dive in confidence and production.
For long stretches of game action last season, Girgensons, 22, appeared to be the odd man out. He would get to scoring areas and not finish. By my recollection, he missed burying 10 Grade A scoring chances from the slot. Girgensosn fought his ass off to get from the walls and outside the dots to the blue ice where the real men play the game and where 90% of today's NHL goals are scored. Dogged effort and fearlessness are the hardest part of playing hockey in today's NHL and Girgensons has seemingly aced it. He plays a man's game and is unafraid to put his body on the line to help his line mates win a shift. I have no explanation for his point production or lack thereof in 2015-16. Dan Bylsma is a demanding head coach and he wanted to see a helluva lot more out of Zemgus than he did last season. Bylsma watches game video. He knew the player that Girgensons was in his All Star season in 2014-15. So, where did that guy disappear to last season?
I have a theory:
Bylsma's coaching is all about pace and persistence. He's all about effort and structure.
Early on last season, we saw three Sabres players suffer from massive losses in confidence. They Zemgus Girgensons, Tyler Ennis and Matt Moulson. Is it a coincidence that this trip succeeed under the looser, less structured Ted Nolan? Girgensons, Ennis and Moulson were the best offensive players on most nights for the two and a half seasons of tank-o-rama hockey. Their ice time was never in jeopardy and they played in all key situations. The goal was to lose games. They did they jobs and they did them well. They played so well on such gawd awful teams that teh Sabres now have Jack Eichel, Samson Reinhart and Alex Nylander to show for it. Zemgus, Enzo, and Matty Mo played a large part in the two second overall and one eighth overall draft picks that the Sabres "earned" the past three seasons. Problem being, #28, #63, and #26 tried to extend and infuse their Ted Nolan inspired habits into the Dan Bylsma system and the results were disastrous for the trio. Bylsma is a task master. On many a night he would say "that was then, this is now" to the breakdowns and failures from the vets who had played under Nolan. Bylsma held those guys, Girgensons included, to much higher standards. They were the leaders, the vets. Before our very eyes in October and November, we saw O'Reilly, McGinn, Ristolainen, Eichel, Reinhart, McCabe, and other young players grab the leadership mantle from the Nolan era players. The results speak for themselves.
Monetraily, what is Girgensons' value to his Sabres team right now?
Is he worth the J.T. Miller $2.75M AAV that he signed this week to avoid arbitration?
Is he worth Foligno's $2.25M AAV on a one year deal?
Is he worth Adam Lowry's $1.125M AAV on a two year deal?
Girgensons' qualifying offer was for 105% of his $832,500 AAV.
That figure seems fair to me.
Why didn't Girgensons do what Foligno did and accept the challenge that Murray and Bylsma threw at him? Give us a great 2016-17 season, be a leader, earn more trust from your coaches and teammates, and lead by example. THEN you will be paid the big money in your next contract.
Murray and Bylsma are more or less telling all of their players that Buffalo, NY is now Buffalo, Missouri: The Show Me State.
Show don't tell.
In 202 career games, the burly forward has popped 30 goals and 40 assists.
The added value to his game is the 413 hits and 146 blocked shots that he has accumulated the past three seasons. He has 60 takeaways in tree seasons.
Girgensons is a puck possession man who is hard on his edges and has soft hands. He abuses opponents with his physicality along the walls.
He struggled mightily and scored only 7 goals-- 6 at even strength-- and added just 11 assists in 71 games.
Maybe it was the dramatic reduction in his ice time from one season to the next. Under Ted Nolan, Girgensons skated 19:05 TOI. Zemgus and Nolan were sympatico with one another having been together with Team Latvia before arriving in Buffalo at different times. One Nolan was fired and the tanking switch was flipped to the "off" position, Bylsma played Girgensons only 15:02 TOI per game
On Thursday, Marcus Foligno accepted his qualifying of $2.25 million.
Foligno had a career year in goal scoring and points in 2015-16 and appeared to thrive in the role that Bylsma hand crafted for him. Foligno confidently took his one year contract offer to prove that he is once and for all ready to take his game to new heights. Foligno will earn a long term contract with a strong showing in 2016-17. Knowing "Moose" the way that I do, he will far exceed all expectation that Murray and Bylsma have set forth for him for the 2016-17 regular season and playoffs. Foligno is gambling on himself right now and he will be paid handsomely next summer for having taken the risk today.
Girgensons has opted not to follow Foligno's path. It appears that he wants to be compensated for the three season body of work that he has already created for himself. In pro sports, tomorrow's paycheck is based on yesterday's work. Honestly speaking, I can't see Tim Murray paying Girgensons $2M+ AAV today and tomorrow for the first two seasons of production and growth of his entry level contract.
Murray wants to see much more consistency from Zemgus. He's obviously not ready to back up the Brinks truck to the Latvian Locomotive.
Yet.
There are two players that Murray has seen enough from that he is confident in investing in their futures and they are defensemen Rasmus Ristolainen and Jake McCabe.
Ristolainen is waiting in the queue for his well deserved long term lucrative contract. I see a 6 year, $36 million contract in #55's not too distant future. Ristolainen has already proven himself to be a workhorse and a warrior capable of leading from the front. The kid is only 21 years old and is scary good already. Ristolainen is a 50+ point getter and a 26 minute TOI defender. He has established himself to be Buffako's numero uno D-man and is to be on the ice in all situations. I sincerely believe that Ristolainen is a year or two away from being nominated for the Norris Trophy for NHL's best defenseman. His future is very bright.
Jake McCabe's career trajectory points upward. McCabe earned himself a three year contract with a $1.6M. McCabe will be given every opportunity at training camp to skate on Buffalo's top D pair with Ristoalinen, a man who McCabe had great chemistry with when they played together in Rochester. McCabe and Zach Bogosian found instant chemistry last season and play a robust, fast and physical style together.
The time for Girgensons to prove that he is worthy of a long term contract at a great AAV was last summer and during the 2015-16 regular season. Not now.
Tim Murray is all about the show, don't tell.
The Sabres already have 12 forwards under contract for the 2016-17 season.
Conspicuous from his absence from that group is Zemgus Girgensons.
Where is he?
In February, I caught Holy Hell from commentors on this site and @SabresBuzz on Twitter for having the audacity and unmitigated gall to suggest that Girgensons be traded to Anaheim for Cam Fowler.
The Ducks are busting at the seams with 9 NHL defensemen under contract and on their roster. They need a ferocious, skilled left winger to raise Hell with Getzlaf and Perry. Randy Carlyle coached against Girgensons while he was bench boss of the Leafs.
Tim Murray needs a puck moving QB and Fowler has been on his mind for the past two seasons.
Girgensons and a pick for Fowler seems just as logical to me today as it did in February.
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