Watching Team Finland paste Team Canada 4-0 on Tuesday at the IIHF Worlds, I wondered aloud how Buffalo Sabres defender Rasmus Ristolainen is doing these days. Were it not for his appointment to the Team Finland blue line at the upcoming World Cup of Hockey tournament to be played in Toronto in September, Ristolainen would no doubt be playing huge minutes for Finland at the IIHF Worlds right now.
Ristolainen is the embodiment of all the qualities and idiosynchrasies that make Finnish hockey players arguably the best in the world. Ristolainen is big, strong, skilled, sees the entire 200 by 85, anticipates the play, skates like the wind; is first on pucks, leans on opponents, gets under their skin; he's gritty, angry, confident, and will punch your teeth down your throat if you touch his goalie.
Ristolainen has quickly distinguished himself as Buffalo's bell vow on their blue line. He is heads and shoulders above the rest of the Sabres D. Dan Bylsma admitted several times during the 2015-16 seaosn that from a distance he knew Risto was a good player. It wasn't until he saw the kid compete in the weight room, on the practice ice and in games as first year head coach of the Sabres that Bylsma saw how truly great the young Finn is right now. The scray thing about Ristolainen is that he is only 22 years old. His best days are still ahead of him in terms of playing a more complete game.
In 2015-16, Ristolainen joined the elite class of NHL defensemen ahead of schedule. He finished 24th overall in the NHL in terms of points by a D by scoring 9 goals and adding 32 assists for 41 points in 82 games played. Ristolainen finihed 10th in the NHL with an average of 25:16 TOI per game.He finihed 9th in NHL D by landing 202 shots on enemy goalies. The young Finn also finished 16th overall with 4 PPG from his right point on the power play.
I get a Slurpee headache when I think about how much more dangerous a weapon Ristolainen will become once he is paired with a similarly skilled left shot D on Buffalo's top pair.
Ristolainen has been paired mostly with 31 year old vetreran Josh Gorges for the past two seasons. The reason for the Gorges pairing was to have a respected NHL vet show the kid the ropes and to be there as a safety valve in the event that mistakes and breakdowns were happening to the young Finn on the ice during stretches of games. Long about early October 2015, Ristolainen morphed from the servant to the master on Buffalo's top D pair. The ceiling inside the arena could not hold him. His confidence soared and so too did his one ice production. He became more vocal. His physicality increased as his confidence soared. The 2015-16 season was in it's infancy when Ristolainen started and never stopped barking at and beating down, tripping, slahing, and getting in the faces of the best of the best top line forwards in the NHL. His battles with Alex Ovechkin, Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, Anze Kopitar, Milan Lucic, Jamie Benn, and other A-Listers are now legendary. Ristolainen quickly distinguished himself as a defender that is going to be a nightmare for opponents to play against.
By the time the calendar flipped to Movember, NHL scouts were already filing glowing reports on how great a complete, 200 foot defender Ristolainen had become. The kid earned the high praise from his relentless work ethic, inner drive and commitment to his coaches and teammates to be the very best player that he can be at all times. In many ways, Ristolainen became Ryan O'Reilly Version 2.0 as the leader of the Buffalo D corps. He was first man on the ice, last man off the ice. First man on the bike after games and working on his game with his position coach Terry Murray long after the teammates had gone home from practice.
Ristolainen is a rink rat's rink rat. He eats, sleeps, breathes, and dreams the game of hockey. He is never satisfied with his accomplishments. He always demands more of himself. He would gladly chuck all of his personal accomplishements in the dumpster if it meant that his team were heading to the Stanley Cup playoffs. The Sabres missed a playoff spot by just six points last season. They improved +27 in terms of points from 2014-15 to 2015-16. On locker clean out day, Ristolainen said matter of factly that his team is going to be a playoff team in the very near future. I happen to believe him.
Tim Murray has $27 million in available salary cap space and 12 premium picks in the 2016 NHL draft. Murray will have to qualify RFA forwards Marcus Foligno and Zemgus Girgensons, as well as D Jake McCabe. He will have plenty of cap space lefty over to get Risto signed and to make a big ticket purchase in the UFA market (Stamkos?).
Murray said last month that he is in the process of negotiating Ristolainen's next contract with the player's agent. Murray said at the time that there were a couple of options to consider. One a long term contract. The other a bridge deal.
Tim, WNY has too many annoying bridges. We don't need another one. Get Risto locked up for the next 6-7 season. Now.
The last thing that the Sabres need this summer is Ristolainen's head being distracted by contract talks and dollars and cents. Muray and Bylsma need Risto to be pounding the weights and buckets of pucks. They want Risto to pick up in September right where he left off at the highest of levels in April when the “Next Chapter”season came to an abrupt end.
So, what is Ristoalinen's value on the RFA market?
I'm a huge proponent of signuing the rugged Finn to a long-term contract in the 7-8 year range. Let's not play around here. No bridge contracts. The kid has earned the right to be paid handsomely among the NHL's best players at his position. He is only going to get better in the coming years. That's why I say lock Risto up long term now. Don't wait. Giving Ristolainen a long-term deal now will set his AAV for years to come. Murray has the csalary cap space and should be investing $5.75M- $6M AAV per season to Ristolainen over the next 7-8 seasons.
In the past year, we've seen NHL GM's inking their young D stars to 6-7 year contract extensions. In my opinion, it's smart business to identify and fortify the D corps.
Tim Murray is no doubt curious to see how his friend Bob Murray handles his two pending RFA D stars in Hampus Lindholm and Sami Vatanen. Like Ristolainen, Lindholm and Vatanen have vaulted to the top of the class of young, two-way NHL defenders. All three D more than paid for themselves during their three year entry level contracts. Now, all three are going to get paid handsomely. Rightfully so.
I see Ristolainen, Lindholm and Vatanen inking similar deals in the $5.75M to $6M AAV neighborhood.
There are comparables for Murray and Murray to use when gauging value of young NHL defenders.
Toronto GM Lou Lamoriello locked up Morgan Reilly with a six-year, $30 million dollar contract extension. I like Reilly as a $5M AAV per season. It's great value.
Pittsburgh GM Jim Rutherford extended young Finn Olli Maatta to a six year, $24.5 million contract extension. Maata at an $4.083M AAV is a great deal for team and the player.
Dallas GM Jim Nill locked in John Klingberg for seven years and $29.750 million. That's a $4.25M AAV.
Calgary Flames GM Brad Treliving inked Dougie Hamilton to a six-year $34.5M deal. That's a $5.75M.
I see Tim Murray and Ristolainen's agent agreeing to a deal in the $5.75-$6M AAV range.
I don't anticipate any snafus or obstacles getting in the way of a Ristolainen contract extension. Tim Murray and the Sabres will be hosting the NHL Scouting Combine and the NHL Draft in the next seven weeks. Murray is eager to get Risto's deal done sooner than later so that he can focus his attention on completing the trade that will deliver Ristolainen's new left shot D partner to the Sabres. I believe Cam Fowler will be riding shotgun with Risto come opening night 2016.
Murray will also be focused on how he is going to lure pending UFA Steven Stamkos to Buffalo on July 1, as well as how he intends to complete a trade with the Edmonton Oilers to secure their fourth overall pick at the NHL Draft. If Murray can't convince Pete Chiarelli to trade the 4tth overall pick, he should sit tight and pull out all stops to get his mitts on pesky Finn left D Olli Juolevi at Buffalo's 8th position in the draft. If Juolevi is taken earlier in the draft, Jakob Chychrun would fit quite nicely in Buffalo's D corps.
It's all about Rist Management.
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