I was driving my daughter to Toronto's Pearson International Airport in Thursday when I heard Jason Botterill put a sharp point on the pencil concernaing the Jack Eichel mega-contract contract negotiations.
Botterill told my friends in hockey Scott Laughlin and Boomer Gordon on Sirius XM NHL Network Radio that the Eichel contract will get done.
When?
Today? Tomorrow? Before the puck drops on the season opener vs. Montreal on October 6?
"I think it's a situation where it's going to eventually happen here. With new contracts that have come across the board this summer (McDavid, Draisaitl, Johansen), it is a little bit of a new market there. But our conversations continue to go extremely well with Jack's representation. I think just the way you see how Jack handled himself in the media the past few weeks here, there is a real maturity to him. He's continued to grow as a young man and has been really engaging on the ice. Great dialogue with Phil (Housley). I think he's excited about the system that Phil's trying to implement here. Off ice, we continue to talk very well and I think both parties want to get a deal done. He's clearly stated that he wants to stay in Buffalo long term and we want to get him done long term. We just have to find a number that makes both sides very happy about the situation. I have no doubt that will happen eventually here".
There is an appetite on Eichel's side to sign an eight year relationship with the Sabres.
At play are market conditions. What is Eichel's true value right now?
Is Eichel a $12.5 million AAV like Connor McDavid? Is he an $8.5M AAV like Leon Draisaitl? Is he an $8M AAV like Ryan Johansen.
Eichel is none of the above.
Right now, Eichel's fair market value is $10 million to $11 million dollars annual average value.
His agent's are shooting high. I appreciate asking for $11 million per season then allowing the Sabres to counter with $10.5 million.
Make no mistake about it. Eichel wil be rewarded with his highly anticipated windfall in the days to come.
Another market force that is acting on the Eichel "final number" is Auston Matthews, who will be looking for his mega-contract extension on July 1, 2018.Matthews potted 40 goals and scored 69 points his rookie season. Let's assume he duplicated that effort this season. He will be the owner of 138 points in his first two NHL seasons and may ask for, receive $96 million over 8 seasons, or $12 M AAV. You never know what could happen. Eichel's reps may be holding firm on their asking price, presumably 8 years and $80 to $88 million because Matthews, the 2016 first overall pick, may be shooting for McDavid moolah next summer.
The great unknown right now is what if Eichel scores 50 goals and 50 assists this season? Don't snicker. It's not outlandish to project a healthy Eichel achieving the century club in his third NHL season. If that is the case, why would Eichel sign sub-$10 million AAV deal now, and leave money on the table? It's well worth it for him to wait. The Sabres at some point have to arrive at the conclusion that Eichel's 2017-18 point production will far exceed his 24 goal and 32.4 assists career average after two seasons.
It's just a matter of time.
In August, Eichel told the Lowell Sun that he wants to be a Buffalo Sabre for many years to come.
"We're in the midst of it. It's between my agent and Mr. (Jason) Botterill," Eichel said. "I'm just going to work hard this summer. All of that tends to take care of itself. Obviously the contract is important. But for me it's all about the play."
As Botterill reiterated in Thursday, Eichel has been impressive both on and off the ice since returning to work in Buffalo three weeks ago. On Tuesday night at Penn State University, Eichel scored the OT GWG to propel his Sabres to victory over the Pittsburgh Penguins. Eichel also added the primary assists in his linemate Jason Pominville two goals versus the Pens.
To my eyes and ears, Eichel has matured tremendously since locker clean out day last April.
Last Friday, on Day 1 of training camp, a humble and hungry Eichel stepped to the podium and called his play the first two seasons in Buffalo "mediocre".
"I have a lot to prove," Eichel said. "Actually, I think I've proven nothing. It's a huge year for me personally and as a team. We want to obviously take the next step as a team, and I think for us to do that we need some guys to take the next step as players, and I need to be one of them.
"I just need to step up around the room, on the ice, big situations for our team do more and prove that I can be our go-to-guy."
Spoken like a young man who sees himself as the next captain of the Buffalo Sabres.
"Mediocre"? Uh, no.
Eichel raised eyebrows with an excellent rookie season by scoring 24 goals, 32 assists in 81 games played in 2015-16. His sophomore season was delayed after missing the first 21 games of the season due to a dastardly, freak high ankle sprain injury he suffered in a power play drill with teammate Zemgus Girgensons in practice the day before the season opener versus Montreal.
"It was frustrating. I wanted to be off and running. It was a bad bounce. But injuries happen. It wasn't the easiest injury to deal with. I started to play much better the second half of the season. But for me the most frustrating part was the underachieving of the team. I thought we had a pretty good team," Eichel said.
Despite his injury, Eichel exploded for 24 goals and 33 assists and 57 points in just 61 games played last season.
In 142 career games, Eichel has scored 48 goals and added 65 assists for 113 points. He's not satisfied with his contributions. He is challenging himself to be better this season and beyond. I wish NhL goalies the best of luck this season trying to stop a motivated and locked in Eichel.
Eichel is a mature young man. He turns 21 in October. He wants to deliver several Stanley Cups to the young and old hockey crazed lunatics who support his Sabres.
"I've made it clear that I want to be a Sabre. I want to be in Buffalo when we start winning. I want to reward the city. It's been two great years. I don't want to go anywhere else," he said.
Earlier this summer, the Edmonton Oilers created a new salary stratosphere what its owners committed to a whopping 8-year, $100 million contract extension with captain Connor McDavid. McDavid was the first overall pick at the 2015 NHL Draft. Eichel was drafted second overall behind McDavid. For the foreseeable future, the McDavid contract will be the gold standard.
Since July 1, Botterill and Eichel's agent have been trying to zero in on the Blue & Gold standard.
Not if, but when it is finalized, Eichel's news contract will end up being a smidge less per season in terms of AAV than McDavid's. However, I'm told that's Eichel has several opportunities for national and regional endorsement deals that will lift his annual earnings higher.
The Sabres have an appetite to re-sign Eichel to a long term deal. Eichel won't be getting McDavid's $12.5M AAV, however, he won't be signing for Leon Draisaitl's $8.5M AAV. Earlier this week, Draisaitl signed a new 8-year, $68 million contract extension. Last month, Nashville re-signed center Ryan Johansen to a new 8-year, $64 million deal.
I have said for the past seven months that Eichel will be re-signing for 8 years and $80 million. I'm sticking to my guns.
Eichel is every bit a $10M AAV man. In the end, he will receive his just desserts.
When his contract negotiations are said and done, Eichel will be one of the highest paid players in the NHL. Eichel will live up to expectations. When healthy, I can see Eichel scoring 40 goals and adding 50 to 60 assists this season.
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Botterill was asked if he sees a similar opportunity to construct winning NHL and AHL teams inside the Buffalo organization.
"It was a situation where I had ten years in Pittsburgh and I had amazing mentors there in Jim Rutherford, Ray Shero, Chuck Fletcher--- very fortunate from Day 1 in that organization I was a part of meetings and part of discussions on building a team. Whether I was dealing with agents or on the business side, it just felt when I got the opportunity to move here to Buffalo I was prepared for a lot of different things because I had good mentors and had that development situation there. But you look at Pittsburgh over the years the biggest thing is the focus on developing players.
Everyone says, "well what's your time frame in Buffalo to have a successful team"?
What we're trying to build is not to win just one championship but to be competitive year in and year out. Pittsburgh is a classic example. You can't really predict when you are going to win it (Stanley Cup) but what Pittsburgh has done for the past decade is be competitive every year. If you have the right sort of luck from an injury standpoint, you ultimately would break through and have a successful season. To predict that "one year" its always difficult. Its imperative to have young players coming through your system, having fresh legs, fresh talent, contribute to your team. That's what we are going to try to create in Buffalo".
Examples of young players are top prospects Justin Bailey, Nick Baptiste, Hudson Fasching and Alex Nylander. All four young men are knocking on the door and want to play full time in the NHL this season. Botterill likes what he is seeing from his young forwards in training camp. especially from Buffalo born product Bailey.
"What we've been really happy with over the past couple of weeks since Day 1 of prospects camp is they came and competed. The only way we are going to get stronger as an organization is if we have that internal push of competition from our own players pushing our veterans here in Buffalo and also down in Rochester making sure there is a lot of competition for the call up spots. I would say especially Justin Bailey has come in and really gotten in on the fore check. Trading (Marcus) Foligno earlier this year, its a situation where we are looking for a little size up front and he certainly has that ability. I think with our young players we are continuing. They are trying to learn the system to make a good impression on Phil and myself. I know Phil as a coach really gravitates to that youthful enthusiasm and they are certainly bringing it to camp so far".
Justin Bailey should be proud of himself for catching the attention of his new head coach and new general manager.
I consider this Botterill commentary about Bailey to be a "tell". Botterill admits that he and Housley appreciate Bailey for his size, speed, strength and skill. What's more, Bailey is not new to the Sabres organization. He has been toiling for four years trying to get his game to a consistent NHL level. He has the right positive attitude and belief in himself.
It appears as though a Buffalo roster spot is his if he can continue to slam bodies, win loose pucks, protect the biscuit and create offense with his high end speed. Perhaps Botterill made the Foligno trade because he knew Bailey could play the Moose role while adding more consistent needed offense to it.
Bailey has 10-15 goals in his stick this season if he plays full time in Buffalo. He'll score 30 if he plays entirely in Rochester. I've said it before and will say it agin. Just Baileynisnmore than ready to play in the NHL today.
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