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Going Dutch

July 16, 2017, 9:00 AM ET [15 Comments]
GARTH'S CORNER
NHL news by Garth • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Matt Duchene is stil a member of the Colorado Avalanche, however, he won't be for long.

There are two reasons why Duchene has yet to be traded.

One is that Avs GM Joe Sakic has set so high the compensation bar for Duchene that only a handful of NHL clubs are willing to ante up. It's like a cyber hostage, ransomware negotiation.

The NHL GMs who want to trade for Duchene have not sent the outlandish bit coin ransom to Sakic.

Yet.

Remember the Ryan O'Reilly trade with Buffalo? Sakic sure does. It appears that Joe is once bitten twice shy regarding a Duchene trade. The Sabres traded defenseman Nikita Zadorov, forward Mikhail Grigorenko, prospect JT Compher, and the 31st pick in the 2015 draft to Colorado for center Ryan O'Reilly and left wing Jamie McGinn.

Today, the ROR deal is graded out as an epic fail for Sakic.

Compher is the saving grace for Sakic. The former Michigan Wolverine will be a solid contributor to the Avs in the seasons to come. Last week, Grigorenko left Colorado to pursue a three year contract in his mother Russia. There are rumblings that Zadorov will be following Grigo back to Russia.

Meanwhile in Buffalo, O'Reilly was named to the 2016 NHL All Star team and arguably has been Buffalo's best forward for the past two seasons. ROR has told me that he still has more offense to give his teammates, and I believe him.

The other reason is that Duchene recently exchanged wedding vows with his long time fiancée. Duchene seemingly instructed his agent to keep the trade irons in the fire during his nuptials. Why would Duchene want to subject his new wife to a bitter divorce before the biggest days of their lives? Weddings are stressful and emotional events to have to prepare for. Why complicate it with a nasty break up and inevitable re-location?



Duchene, 26, was the third overall pick from the 2009 NHL Draft has given the Avalanche and it's fans eight seasons of great production. In 572 career regular season games, Duchene has scored 174 goals and 244 assists for 418 points. He his only enjoyed one playoff appearance in his eight year career. He scored a career high 30 goals in 2015-16. He has scored 20 or more goals five times in his NHL career.

Make no mistake about it, Duchene is a highly sought after center/winger who will be a plug-n-play star for his next franchise. Montreal, NY Islanders, Columbus, Nashville and Los Angeles are brand loyal to Duchene. at what price though?

Duchene has one season remaining on his current contract and will be an unrestricted free agent at age 27 on July 1, 2018. Duchene will earn $6 million this season. What if he scores 30+ goals in a contract season? His AAV will likely escalate to the $7M AAV echelon and this may give pause to several NHL clubs seeking his services. In other words, Duchene is regarded as a great NHL scorer, like Buffalo's Evander Kane, who also has one year remaining on his contract. Players like Duchene and Kane are not cost controlled assets for years to come and this is why it is such a challenge to trade them. Each player is a 30 goal season away from earning a seven year, $49 million contract. Great for the player, but a serious obstacle for the majority of NHL teams, many of which are already struggling with salary cap issues. On the other side of the coin, Duchene and Kane can struggle in 2017-18 and end up leaving money on the table. That's why they play the games.


The NHL trade market has cooled off considerably in the past two weeks following the opening of the unrestricted free agency period on July 1. NHL GMs have shifted their collective focus to assessing their prospects at annual development camps.

Though it may appear to be in "sleep" mode, the NHL trade machine is indeed still active. Sakic has conversations in progress with a few NHL teams as it pertains to a Duchene trade. I was convinced that Duchene would have been traded at the NHL Draft in Chicago in June and then again on July 1.

I was wrong.

Joe Sakic's professional reputation seemingly is attached to the eventual outcome of the Duchene trade. He cannot get taken to the cleaners on this deal like he had on the Ryan O'Reilly trade. Or else.


Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman shared his thoughts on the Duchene matter on Sportsnet 590.

“I just think that Colorado has set a very high price and they’re not tempted to budge off it unless they get what they want,” Friedman said. “The Ryan O’Reilly deal didn’t turn out well for Colorado. Some of their fans really disagree with that. They feel that their prospects still have a chance, which is fine. But I think after that O’Reilly deal you have to be more certain about what you’re getting for Duchene if you’re going to make that trade.

“I do think they want to trade Duchene. I think Duchene needs a fresh start and would like a fresh start. But the fact is they’re sitting there and they’ve set a very high bar for a guy who has been a 30-goal scorer.

“I think one of the biggest issues is that if you take a look at some of the real interesting offense-for-defense trades in the last couple of years – there’s Drouin for Sergachev, Montreal-Tampa. There’s Jones-Johansen, Columbus and Nashville. And there’s Hall for Larsson, Edmonton-New Jersey.

“The thing is all of those players were under team control for some time. You really knew that you had the option to keep those guys. Duchene is only under contract for this year and next, and then he’s an unrestricted free agent. I know that concerned Carolina. The price is high, so you’re looking there and you’re saying, ‘We’re going to give up a young, controllable player or two in return, and there’s no guarantee we’re going to be able to keep Duchene long term.’ I think some teams are skittish about that.

“But I do think everyone took a timeout after July 1. I wouldn’t be surprised if a few of the contenders try again sometime in the summer.”

The conundrum for several NHL GMs is establishing Duchene's true value. In other words, is he worth it to give up the farm for? and by farm I mean a top four defenseman, a top six forward and a top organizational prospect. Remember, Sakic does not want to suffer another public humiliation like he did during and after the Ryan O'Reilly for Mikhail Grigorenko trade. NHL GMs don't keep their jobs after one such lopsided trade losses. Two beat downs in three years would injure Sakic's reputation long term. Failure is not an option right now for the former Avs superstar.

Sakic is a highly motivated GM right now because of the clock is ticking. Duchene doesn't want to return to Denver for his final season of his contract. He wants out. Duchene is estranged. He said as much when he was interviewed at the IIHF World Championships in Paris in April. Sakic knows that Duchene's agent has made public comments about the absurdity of the delays.


Who is Matt Duchene from a value perspective?

He scored just 41 points last season after scoring 59, 55, and 70 points in his previous three seasons.

Is Duchene a number one center who is capable of dinning the Superman cape and carrying a franchise on his back? Or, is he a very solid #2 centerman?

He a puck possession center who won 62.5% of his draws last season. Of the 1,098 draws Duchene took for the bad news Avs last season, he won 687 of them. Duchene is a career 52.7% faceoff win man. He also has 102 career power play points on his resume. He has 28 career game winning goals. He has landed 1,430 shots on enemy goalies the past eight seasons (178.75 shots per season on average).



Which teams are in play for Duchene?


The NY Islanders need to show their captain John Tavares some love before he bolts to unrestricted free agency next July. Isles GM Garth Snow acquired Jordan Eberle from Edmonton and could hit a home run by acquiring Duchene. Snow has rock star products to use as currency in D Ryan Pulock, forwards Josh Ho-Sang and Anthony Beauvillier.


Columbus are built to win it all in the next two seasons. Adding a Duchene now would add more firepower to an already potent Blue Jackets squad. Is Jarmo Kekalainen willing to trade away D prospect Gabriel Carlsson, forward Boone Jenner, winger and Sonny Milano or Oliver Bjorkstrand?



If David Poile wants Duchene as bad as reports say he does, he better be prepared to trade D Ryan Ellis, center Calle Jarnkrok, and a prospect forward.



I would keep my eyes glued to Columbus, who have a history of making blockbuster trades in July while hockey people are chilling at their cottages in the Halliburton Highlands and the Muskokas.

On July 23, 2012, then Jax GM Scott Howson traded then captain Rick Nash to the NY Rangers along with defenseman Steven Delisle and a conditional third-round selection in the 2013 NHL Draft in exchange for forwards Brandon Dubinsky and Artem Anisimov, defenseman Tim Erixon and the Rangers' first-round selection in the 2013 Draft.


It took the Rangers five patient months to finally reel in their prized whale in Nash. The Nash deal was complicated and as I recall, it took several turns. In many ways, trading for Matt Duchene is very reminiscent to trading Rick Nash. Columbus persevered and got the compensation it was demanding in that deal. When the time was right, Nash waived his no move clause and the blockbuster July trade as born.


Current Jax GM Jarmo Kekalainen is a very patient, methodical and learned hockey man. He knows how to craft and shape a win-win blockbuster deal like the Ryan Johansson for Seth Jones epic trade. Who can forget the Brandon Saad to Columbus earth skater that featured Saad, defenseman Michael Paliotta and forward Alex Broadhurst to the Blue Jackets for forwards Artem Anisimov, Jeremy Morin, Corey Tropp and Marko Dano, and a fourth-round pick in the 2016 NHL Draft.

Alas, Kekalainen shocked us again last month when, in stealth mode, he traded Saad back the Blackhawks in exchange for former rookie of the year Artemi Panarin.

Who saw that trade coming?

Jarmo did.

Through astute scouting, drafting and player development Kekalainen and his AGM Bill Zito have amassed a treasure trove of some of the most brilliant young gems in the NHL. His AHL club won the Calder Cup two years ago and many of his top prospects have either made the big club or are in the process of doing so this season. Zachary Werenski, Gabriel Carlsson, Josh Anderson, Alex Weinberg, Sonny Milano, and Oliver Bjorkstrand have earned NHL roster spots. Pierre Luc Dubois, Tyler Motte, and Paul Bittner Are in their way in the near future.

Kekalainen has the premium assets to get Sakic to say yes. One tree with Kekalainen could accelerate the Colorado Avalanche by delivering 3 or 4 premium building blocks to Denver. Such a deal just might save Sakic's job.
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