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Habs Won't get Markov Signed Pre-Deadline

February 25, 2014, 10:07 AM ET [1522 Comments]
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1) The topic of the day (likely to be the topic of the next two weeks) is Andrei Markov. TSN 690's Tony Marinaro reported that Marc Bergevin has offered Markov a one-year deal worth more than six million dollars to stay with the Canadiens, and that Markov is looking for three years of security.

Brian Wilde of CTV sees this negotiation as a defining moment for Marc Bergevin as GM of the Montreal Canadiens. Hard to argue against that notion, and though obviously his handling of P.K. Subban's contract extension is likely to be far more defining, the issues are linked.

Brian posits there are three scenarios--all of them likely to enrage Canadiens fans:

Bergevin either angers the fan base now by trading him for the future; angers the fan base later by getting nothing for him when he declares free agency; or angers the fan base by signing Markov on the player's terms for a lot of money and probably a lot of years.


If we could step away from how the fans will react, I'll share what I believe is the best course of action for Marc Bergevin.

I believe Bergevin should stand his ground on one year. If Markov wants a deal now, that's really all Bergevin can offer him. There are 23 games left on the schedule, and if the Canadiens make the playoffs, Markov has to prove he's not going to tail off as he has on several occasions in the past.

To offer Markov anything more than a year before the season plays itself out is highly irresponsible, as another injury could severely damage his value to the team in the future.

I know what you're thinking, and you're right. Markov isn't going to accept that one-year deal. And let me tell you, whether Markov's a playoff hero or not, he's not going to receive anything better than a two-year deal from the Canadiens.

So, that's pushing a lot of people to suggest the Canadiens trade him and get a maximal return while they still can, ahead of this year's deadline. I'd never discount the logic behind moving a depreciating asset at a time where he'll fetch the highest return, and on its own, it only makes sense. But in the larger picture, there are some crucial things to consider about where the Canadiens actually stand. Bergevin's dedication to the long-term plan is established. But the long-term plan isn't just about drafting and developing players to plug into this team. It's about seasoning the players that are already here--players that represent the core of the team.

Currently, the Canadiens are seven points up on the playoff bubble. They have core pieces in Carey Price, P.K. Subban, Max Pacioretty, Alex Galchenyuk, Brendan Gallagher, Nathan Beaulieu and Jarred Tinordi. They have some other pieces that are likely to be fixtures in this locker room for the next few years (over which the Habs are aiming to have a team that can regularly contend for the Stanley Cup), in Josh Gorges, Alexei Emelin, Brandon Prust and one of David Desharnais or Lars Eller. It's critical to have these players competing together in the playoffs and gaining experience (good and bad).

There's another side to the equation that people are ignoring: Cap space is a tremendous asset. I think people are ignoring it because it didn't wash well with them when UFAs-to be Sheldon Souray and Mark Streit weren't traded ahead of being lured away by lucrative contracts from other teams. Bob Gainey wasn't going to hold onto them, so not getting anything for them when he could seemed crazy to most. Souray walked after the team missed the playoffs anyways, and the following year when it was Streit's turn, the Canadiens finished first in the Eastern Conference; forgive Gainey for thinking trading Streit off the team would've crippled their chances at a long playoff run.

I digress, cap space is a luxury in today's NHL, and given the team's current situation with Subban set to cash in huge, it's even more critical the Canadiens have the space (not this summer, but over the two or three more years that Markov wants to remain with the team for, because those will be the years--when the team is more fit to contend--that Bergevin will be more inclined to sign prominent UFAs or take on high value rentals).

The decision with Markov is really about evaluating which risk is more worth taking for the Canadiens:

Risk missing the playoffs, or doing very poorly in them by trading Markov for a first round pick in a draft that isn't deep, or risk losing him for less than they would if they had traded him at the deadline.

To sum it up, Bergevin won't get Markov signed before the trade deadline. But Bergevin should hang on to him and hope that the Canadiens make the playoffs, and hope that they do well, and that Markov does well too. If that happens, Bergevin can offer him the two-year deal, and if Markov doesn't want to accept it, he can still obtain some value by trading his rights and freeing up that valuable cap space.

Markov's rights will still be worth a return that helps the Canadiens long-term if he performs as he should between now and the team's post-mortem. And if he doesn't, the Canadiens can trade his rights for an even lesser return, and allowing him to walk instead of signing him for more than one year will be fully justified.

Wilde is right, the fans aren't likely to be happy no matter how this plays out, but this isn't about the fans.

2) So, take everything I just said in point one and consider this report that the teams that sent upwards of seven players to the 1998, 2002, 2006 and 2010 Olympics suffered a considerable dip in offensive production post-Olympics.

If the pattern holds true, that could be devastating for a Canadiens team that currently ranks 22nd in the league in goals/game.

Doesn't mean the Canadiens are more likely to miss the playoffs, but it sure does put even more pressure on Carey Price. Heck, if the pattern holds, and the Habs drop off any further in goals/game, and Price delivers, he won't just be a Vezina nominee, he'll be a Hart Trophy contender.

3) Trade deadline is approaching, and the Canadiens do have some critical moves to make off their roster, regardless of their playoff plans.

Brandon Prust and Michael Bournival are currently injured. Prust is day-to-day with an upper-body injury, and hopes to return by the time the Canadiens take off for their West Coast swing next week. Bournival has a concussion, and isn't currently skating, which puts him at least a week away from returning.

Travis Moen is said to have nearly recovered from a groin injury, and the hope is that he'll play on Wednesday.

Moen could be expendable, as the team's move for Dale Weise crowded the fourth line. With Alex Galchenyuk set to return, things get even more crowded toward the bottom of the lineup.

Another name to consider is Daniel Briere. The Canadiens will listen to offers for him, and he's probably the most likely player to move at the deadline.

On defense, the Canadiens have recalled Tinordi. They don't have room for both he and Beaulieu right now, with Drewiske set to return soon, with Bouillon and Murray and the other defensemen on the team all on one-way deals.

They want to see if Tinordi is as ready as Beaulieu is to stick with Montreal. If he is, that's likely to mean waivers or a trade for Francis Bouillon and/or Davis Drewiske.

The Canadiens will shed some salary, and regardless of what they do on their blueline, expect Tinordi and Beaulieu to remain with the team after the deadline passes.

4) Back to Markov for a second. If they did trade him at the deadline (they won't), he's going to fetch at least a first-round pick. At least.

5) Catch 22 for Michel Therrien:

Carey Price can't start in back-to-back games Wednesday and Thursday, having just returned from Russia.

So which game do you start Price for?

Both are important, but the first one is a divisional matchup with Detroit, who are just six back of the Habs with a game in hand. The following night in Pittsburgh represents a remarkable challenge as well, but doesn't have the divisional implications.
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