There is a ton of speculation right now surrounding Ilya Kovalchuk and with speculation come rumors a plenty. One of the hardest aspects of my job is deciphering the difference between speculation and rumor.

Perhaps a definition of terms is in line now.

When I refer to speculation I refer to basically what any of us can do. Look at a situation and logically put together trades, matches, signings. etc.

When I refer to a rumor I refer to something that is told to me using a term like "I am hearing...," or "they are talking...," or "I know that they are interested in..."

Sometimes speculation makes it into the press as a rumor because to be honest really good ideas can sometimes go around the mill so quickly that once the speculation travels 3-5 people from the original speculator the "whisper down the lane" principle takes hold and a source may think he heard or may have been told that it wasn't speculation at all...

You can ask any journalist and they will be able to share stories where they were told something by one of their best sources who was convinced he was sharing facts with him, when in actuality the rumor had just run through the rumor mill so much that people started believing it had to be true.

When a player like Ilya Kovalchuk is involved, everything is magnified.

When looking for rumors and trying to decipher their validity I always start with facts.

With Ilya Kovalchuk I am basically certain of 2 facts that come from sources very close to the situation.

#1. The Thrashers will move Kovalchuk before the Olympics if he isn't signed.
#2. The Thrashers have not yet started that process and have not spoken to anyone since the season began.

So why the rumors surrounding Kovalchuk?

Kovalchuk is a special player and teams are already working on their own contingency plans should the bidding begin. Teams won't make an offer or even discuss players with Atlanta until they know that Kovalchuk is available for several reasons. The first two are the most obvious.

#1. The kinds of names that are required to make such a deal happen are huge and could be disruptive. That is why you always hear people saying, "It all went down in a few hours." We heard this with Heatley, we heard this with Joe Thornton, etc. Are they lying to us? No, the amount of time the two sides actually talk may have been very small. But the prep work for these sorts of major trades are incredibly secretive and very time consuming. How many years did I say that the Flames wanted Oli Jokinen?

#2. You need to know if you are bidding on a signed Kovalchuk or a rental player. Big difference. Let's start by looking at the rental scenario and the teams that could be involved.

From what I gather, the Thrashers (at this point) are thinking more in terms of Kovalchuk moving as a rental. Perhaps this is because they have been in the rental business before with players like Hossa. There aren't many teams that would be in on the bidding for Kovalchuk as a rental. Probably three or four teams that are willing to take a serious Cup shot and sacrifice a top prospect and a draft pick for a chance to raise the Cup.

The best I can tell, based on talking to sources, it seems that the teams who will be in the running to rent Kovalchuk are the Washington Capitals, Vancouver Canucks, Detroit, and Los Angeles Kings. Each team would have to give up a pick, a player that can help Atlanta now, and a top, top NHL prospect.

It gets much more murky when you start talking about teams that can sign Kovalchuk to an extension.

Then the Kings, Wings and Canucks remain, but you can add as many as eight other teams including Toronto, Philadelphia, NY Rangers, NY Islanders, Colorado, Edmonton and Nashville.

Signing Kovalchuk means in all likelihood paying him the max salary allowed by the NHL. So in order for a team to do that they would have to move the equivalent salary or potential salary back to the Thrashers. We are talking serious players at this point.

One rumor, for example's sake, that was in Philadelphia this past week sets the bar for all other offers. I heard an anticipated price tag of Carter, Giroux, and Parent for Kovalchuk. That's a ton.

When I asked the source about the fact that I thought that would be too much to pay, the source said that many feel if you put Ilya into a major market people will be putting him in the same class with Crosby and Ovechkin. "Ilya Kovalchuk may be that good and when do you get a shot at that kind of impact."

So how much would you pay for him as a rental? How much would you part with if you could extend him for ten years?

More to come.