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Only 15% of Teams Out of Playoffs on Halloween Make the Playoffs in April

October 19, 2011, 1:03 PM ET [ Comments]
Eklund
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Every year in April, when every point matters the most, we tend to forget just how important this month can be towards getting a team in the playoffs...let's do a quick comparison on the last three years...

The East

October 31, 2008 (finished)
Teams in Playoff Spot on October 31 Who Make the Playoffs: 7 of 8
Points Differential from 8th to 15: 6 points
1. NY Rangers (finished 7th)
2. *Montreal (finished 8th)
3. *Carolina (finished 6th)

4. Buffalo (finished 10th)
5. Boston (finished 1st)
6. New Jersey (finished 3rd)
7. Pittsburgh (finished 4th)
8. Washington (finished 2nd)
--------------
9. Philadelphia (tied in points with Washington. Less wins) (finished 5th)


October 31, 2009 (finished)
Teams in Playoff Spot on October 31 Who Make the Playoffs: 7 of 8
Points Differential from 8th to 15: 7 points
1. Pittsburgh (finished 4th)
2. Washington (finished 1st)

3. NY Rangers (finished 9th )
4. Buffalo (finished 3rd)
5. NJ Devils (finished 2nd)
6. Montreal (finished 8th)
7. Ottawa (finished 5th)
8. Philadelphia (finished 7th)
-------
9 Boston (tied in points on Oct 31, 1 more game played)(finished 6th)

October 31, 2010 (finished)
Teams in Playoff Spot on October 31 Who Make the Playoffs: 7 of 8
Points Differential from 8th to 15: 5 points
1. Tampa (finished 5th)
2. Montreal (finished 6th)
3. Philadelphia ((finished 2nd)
4. Washington(finished 1st)
5. NY Rangers (finished 8th)
6. Pittsburgh (finished 4th)
7. Boston (finished 3rd)

8. Atlanta (finished 12th)
----------
14 Buffalo (4 points out on Oct 31)(finished 7th)

Notes: So in the East we can clearly see how important a start is. It's frankly amazing. In each of the last three years 7 of the 8 teams who ended up in the playoffs were in the playoffs on October 31st after roughly only 12 games played. That's 83%.

Take into account that 2 of 3 teams who did make the playoffs despite not having been in the top 8 were actually 9th. Only Buffalo last year managed to recover from a bad start...and only climbed into 7th.

Also you can see teams like Montreal and the Rangers from last season who clearly wouldn't have made the playoffs had they not had such an outstanding start

Think of how tight the race is every year at the end of the season and this is remarkable data:

The Western Conference

October 31, 2008 (finished)
Teams in Playoff Spot on October 31 Who Make the Playoffs: 6 of 8
Points Differential from 8th to 15: 4 points
1. San Jose (finished 1st)
2. *Detroit (finished 2nd)

3. *Minnesota (finished 9th)
4. Calgary (finished 5th)
5. Anaheim (finished 8th)
6. Vancouver (finished 3rd)

7. Nashville (finished 10th)
8. Chicago (finished 4th)
-------
9. St. Louis (1 point out)(finished 6th)
14. Columbus (3 points out) (finished 7th)


October 31, 2009 (finished)
Teams in Playoff Spot on October 31 Who Make the Playoffs: 6 of 8
Points Differential from 8th to 15: 5 points
1. Colorado (finished 8th)
2. San Jose (finished 2nd)
3. Phoenix (finished 4th)
4. Los Angeles (finished 6th)
5. Chicago (finished 2nd)

6. Dallas (finished 12th)
7. Vancouver (finished 3rd)
8. Calgary (finished 10th)
-------------
12. Detroit (2 points out on Oct 31) (finished 5th) (
11. Nashville (2 points out on Oct 31) (finished 7th)


October 31, 2010 (finished)
Teams in Playoff Spot on October 31 Who Make the Playoffs: 4 of 8
Points Differential from 8th to 15: 4 points
I included the games played and points on October 31, to show you that while 4 teams out of the top 8 at on Halloween DID make it, they were so close to being in the top 8 at Halloween it's almost moot. Also remember how close Dallas was to making the playoffs (needing only a win to make it.)

1. Los Angeles 11-16 (finished 7th)
2. Chicago 14-15(finished 8th)

3. St. Louis 9-14 (finished 11th)
4. Detroit 9-13 (finished 3rd)
5. Colorado 11-13(finished 14th)
6. Nashville 10-13(finished 5th)
7. Columbus 10-12(finished 13th)
8. Dallas 10-12 (finished 9th)
--------------
9. Calgary 11-12 ((finished 10th)
10. Vancouver 10-12 (finished 1st)
11. San Jose 9-11 (finished 2nd)

12. Minnesota 10-10 (finished 12)
13. Anaheim 12-9 (finished 4th)
14. Phoenix 10-9 (finished 6th)

15. Edmonton 9-8 (finished 15th)

So in the West, until last year, we saw the importance of a hot start rivaling the amazing data from the East, with 6 of the 8 teams making the playoffs after hot starts.. Last year was an incredible year in the West with playoff spots up for grabs right until the final buzzer of the season. One thing is very apparent here...had LA and Chicago not gotten off to such a blazing start last year they would never have seen the playoffs.

Conclusion...

October may be the most important month of the season, hands down. In the last three seasons of the 48 teams who made the playoffs, 37 of them were in playoff spots as of October 31..roughly 12 games into the season.

In other words...

In the playoffs on Halloween: 77% chance you make it in April
Out of the playoffs on Halloween: 15% chance of making it in April.


And here is the finest proof ever to the concept that "It doesn't matter how many points you are out of the playoffs, it matters how many teams you have to pass"

The average amount of points that separate 8th from 15th on October 31.

East
2008: 6 points
2009: 7 points
2010: 5 points

West
2008: 4 points
2009: 5 points
2010: 4 points

So less than 6 points on average. Only 12 games into the season! That means all these NHL teams have 70+ games to make up less than 3 wins and have only done so 15% of the time, or 11 of 70 teams have been able to make the playoffs.

When I set out to do this article, I knew a hot start mattered, but I had no idea how much.

On Halloween this year we will examine the standings this year and see what we feel will happen...

What's the buzz?

Tell me your thoughts...

Rumor Blog to come...

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